The Washington Post
The two most successful conferences so far in 2016 are the Big East and the Big 12 — and it’s not even close. The Big East is now a combined 77-20 in non-conference play, while the Big 12 is as deep as any conference in the league (see Texas’s upset over North Carolina). Even a team like St. John’s, which has struggled mightily with inexperience and adjusting to new coach Chris Mullin, defeated Syracuse over the weekend.
What is interesting about these two leagues is that they are each more than Kansas and Villanova aka the two teams predicted to top their respective standings this preseason. Here are eight other teams that could contend for not only the conference title but the national title.
Big East
Xavier: One of the last remaining undefeateds, Chris Mack’s squad appears to be the perfect blend of rugged offensive efficiency and unyielding defensive intensity. The Musketeers score 1.13 points per possession, fueled by a ferocity to corral and convert second chance opportunities. They reclaim 38 percent of XU’s misses and with them produce more than one point per putback.
[When college basketball’s undefeated teams will likely lose]
The defense has largely fueled the squad’s success. Because their interior defense blocks nearly 11 percent of opponents’ attempts — XU ranks within the top 50 of Hoop-Math.com’s percentage of blocks at the rim database — Xavier has forced teams to try and score from beyond the arc (42 percent three-point field goal percentage). So far, they’ve executed the perfect pack-line defensive strategy.
Henry Ellenson has been a handful for interior defenders. (Morry Gash/AP Photo)
Marquette: Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson form the best — and most underrated — scoring frontcourt combination in the country. When Marquette feeds its two bigs, the team is an inside-out offensive juggernaut. The 6-foot-10 Ellenson ranks fourth on the team in assists, and nearly 60 percent of his dishes result in two-point field goals (many of those converted by Fischer). When an opponent single-covers each of them, it doesn’t end well for said opponent — the duo is making a combined 60 percent from the paint (per Hoop-Math.com, 75 percent at the rim) — through a mélange of hooks, up-and-unders and feathery shooting touches.
Butler: This is not Brad Stevens’ Butler club, but that was clear when Chris Holtmann took over on the sidelines last year. Yes, the better than average defense remains, and will forever be a Bulldog hallmark — one point per possession, which won’t invoke memories of Willie Veasley, but is good enough — but Holtmann’s offense has become supercharged. The team exploits as many open-court opportunities as possible, sporting a pace (72 possessions) that ranks within Ken Pomeroy’s top 100 database, and is headlined by the sterling backcourt vision of Roosevelt Jones and North Carolina State transfer Tyler Lewis. No other Big East squad is more accurate within the halfcourt than the Bulldogs (55 percent effective field goal percentage), scoring the majority of the buckets at the rim — 43 percent, a stark difference from the Stevens (38.3 percent)/Brandon Miller (33 percent) era.
Providence: We all know about Kris Dunn’s divine passing vision, and Ben Bentil’s emergence and development into an offensive force (and not just around the basket), but what is most interesting about the Friars, and why they, like any of the Big East teams, could take the league title is how effortlessly the team scores within the arc. Five Friars convert more than 50 percent of their two-point field goals, and this incessant commitment to score on the interior makes PC such a complex squad to defend against. If Dunn hadn’t picked up that fourth foul late in the second half against Michigan State, the Big East would still have two teams without a loss.
Big 12
Baylor: Of all the teams on this list, Baylor is the one with a glaring caveat — the Bears have played just three (of eight) teams that rank among Ken Pom’s top 200, so the stats are a bit skewed. Still, it is hard not to envision Scott Drew’s defense causing Big 12 opponents fits in 2016. And for the first time in years, Baylor is not only keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass, they are also forcing a high number of giveaways — 21.4 percent turnover percentage — which makes the Bears’ 2-3 defense even more stingy.
Buddy Hield has been a legitimate player of the year candidate thus far. (Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo)
Oklahoma: We could talk about Oklahoma’s stifling defense, or the supporting cast Lon Kruger has assembled, or even how badly the Sooners have mollywhopped opponents in 2016. Instead, we have to mention how criminally underrated Buddy Hield has been. The 6-4 guard is a legitimate player of the year candidate, but it feels like the glare of the national spotlight has bypassed the guards, which is a shame considering his offensive output. Playing largely off the ball, Hield is making 45 percent of his twos, 50 percent of his threes, and is getting to the rim at will, using his speed, handle, and strength to dribble drive and finish consistently (55 percent, per Hoop-Math.com). He has also essentially eliminated two-point jump shots, eschewing the mid-range game to focus on the high percentage (and highly accurate) rim and three-point attempts.
West Virginia: Comfort is an abstract concept to West Virginia opponents. Even Virginia, which defeated the Mountaineers this past week, committed 19 turnovers, a 30 percent abnormality. Nearly one-third of opponents’ possessions result in a giveaway, and the unease those teams feel is why WVU’s offensive stagnancy — Jaysean Paige is the only Mountaineer to make more than 35 percent of his threes — isn’t a concern.
Iowa State: Steve Prohm had the inevitable task of replacing Hilton Coliseum legend Fred Hoiberg, and so far, with a bevy of returnees, the ex-Murray State coach has stayed the course, albeit with a few wrinkles. The squad is much more defensively savvy, using their length and uber athleticism to cause fits on that side of the ball. Not only are opponents failing to secure second chance opportunities, but the Cyclones are also defending without fouling, registering the nation’s best defensive free throw rate (19 percent). Overall, the squad’s defensive efficiency rates ranks among Ken Pom’s top 25, and that combination of offensive brilliance and an upgraded defense could translate to a run in March.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tball/?postshare=3251450127025411&tid=ss_mail
The two most successful conferences so far in 2016 are the Big East and the Big 12 — and it’s not even close. The Big East is now a combined 77-20 in non-conference play, while the Big 12 is as deep as any conference in the league (see Texas’s upset over North Carolina). Even a team like St. John’s, which has struggled mightily with inexperience and adjusting to new coach Chris Mullin, defeated Syracuse over the weekend.
What is interesting about these two leagues is that they are each more than Kansas and Villanova aka the two teams predicted to top their respective standings this preseason. Here are eight other teams that could contend for not only the conference title but the national title.
Big East
Xavier: One of the last remaining undefeateds, Chris Mack’s squad appears to be the perfect blend of rugged offensive efficiency and unyielding defensive intensity. The Musketeers score 1.13 points per possession, fueled by a ferocity to corral and convert second chance opportunities. They reclaim 38 percent of XU’s misses and with them produce more than one point per putback.
[When college basketball’s undefeated teams will likely lose]
The defense has largely fueled the squad’s success. Because their interior defense blocks nearly 11 percent of opponents’ attempts — XU ranks within the top 50 of Hoop-Math.com’s percentage of blocks at the rim database — Xavier has forced teams to try and score from beyond the arc (42 percent three-point field goal percentage). So far, they’ve executed the perfect pack-line defensive strategy.
Henry Ellenson has been a handful for interior defenders. (Morry Gash/AP Photo)
Marquette: Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson form the best — and most underrated — scoring frontcourt combination in the country. When Marquette feeds its two bigs, the team is an inside-out offensive juggernaut. The 6-foot-10 Ellenson ranks fourth on the team in assists, and nearly 60 percent of his dishes result in two-point field goals (many of those converted by Fischer). When an opponent single-covers each of them, it doesn’t end well for said opponent — the duo is making a combined 60 percent from the paint (per Hoop-Math.com, 75 percent at the rim) — through a mélange of hooks, up-and-unders and feathery shooting touches.
Butler: This is not Brad Stevens’ Butler club, but that was clear when Chris Holtmann took over on the sidelines last year. Yes, the better than average defense remains, and will forever be a Bulldog hallmark — one point per possession, which won’t invoke memories of Willie Veasley, but is good enough — but Holtmann’s offense has become supercharged. The team exploits as many open-court opportunities as possible, sporting a pace (72 possessions) that ranks within Ken Pomeroy’s top 100 database, and is headlined by the sterling backcourt vision of Roosevelt Jones and North Carolina State transfer Tyler Lewis. No other Big East squad is more accurate within the halfcourt than the Bulldogs (55 percent effective field goal percentage), scoring the majority of the buckets at the rim — 43 percent, a stark difference from the Stevens (38.3 percent)/Brandon Miller (33 percent) era.
Providence: We all know about Kris Dunn’s divine passing vision, and Ben Bentil’s emergence and development into an offensive force (and not just around the basket), but what is most interesting about the Friars, and why they, like any of the Big East teams, could take the league title is how effortlessly the team scores within the arc. Five Friars convert more than 50 percent of their two-point field goals, and this incessant commitment to score on the interior makes PC such a complex squad to defend against. If Dunn hadn’t picked up that fourth foul late in the second half against Michigan State, the Big East would still have two teams without a loss.
Big 12
Baylor: Of all the teams on this list, Baylor is the one with a glaring caveat — the Bears have played just three (of eight) teams that rank among Ken Pom’s top 200, so the stats are a bit skewed. Still, it is hard not to envision Scott Drew’s defense causing Big 12 opponents fits in 2016. And for the first time in years, Baylor is not only keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass, they are also forcing a high number of giveaways — 21.4 percent turnover percentage — which makes the Bears’ 2-3 defense even more stingy.
Buddy Hield has been a legitimate player of the year candidate thus far. (Sue Ogrocki/AP Photo)
Oklahoma: We could talk about Oklahoma’s stifling defense, or the supporting cast Lon Kruger has assembled, or even how badly the Sooners have mollywhopped opponents in 2016. Instead, we have to mention how criminally underrated Buddy Hield has been. The 6-4 guard is a legitimate player of the year candidate, but it feels like the glare of the national spotlight has bypassed the guards, which is a shame considering his offensive output. Playing largely off the ball, Hield is making 45 percent of his twos, 50 percent of his threes, and is getting to the rim at will, using his speed, handle, and strength to dribble drive and finish consistently (55 percent, per Hoop-Math.com). He has also essentially eliminated two-point jump shots, eschewing the mid-range game to focus on the high percentage (and highly accurate) rim and three-point attempts.
West Virginia: Comfort is an abstract concept to West Virginia opponents. Even Virginia, which defeated the Mountaineers this past week, committed 19 turnovers, a 30 percent abnormality. Nearly one-third of opponents’ possessions result in a giveaway, and the unease those teams feel is why WVU’s offensive stagnancy — Jaysean Paige is the only Mountaineer to make more than 35 percent of his threes — isn’t a concern.
Iowa State: Steve Prohm had the inevitable task of replacing Hilton Coliseum legend Fred Hoiberg, and so far, with a bevy of returnees, the ex-Murray State coach has stayed the course, albeit with a few wrinkles. The squad is much more defensively savvy, using their length and uber athleticism to cause fits on that side of the ball. Not only are opponents failing to secure second chance opportunities, but the Cyclones are also defending without fouling, registering the nation’s best defensive free throw rate (19 percent). Overall, the squad’s defensive efficiency rates ranks among Ken Pom’s top 25, and that combination of offensive brilliance and an upgraded defense could translate to a run in March.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tball/?postshare=3251450127025411&tid=ss_mail
