Carino: Seton Hall preview: 5 key games, our projection

[Halldan1]

College basketball beat writer Jerry Carino highlights Seton Hall’s 2015-16 schedule and projects how the Pirates will finish.

FIVE KEY GAMES...............

http://www.app.com/story/sports/col...review-5-games-watch-our-projection/75567154/

 

[jerseyjoepirate]

Assuming Carino's prediction is correct what do you think will be KW's fate? Will this be enough to get him a contract extension?

 

[Save Continental]

I don't think there's a chance in hell Seton Hall would fire Willard if those are the results, assuming there are no further off the court embarrassments, of course. Especially if he has a couple decent recruits signed.

 

[Section112]

That is probably a very realistic projection of our season by Carino. Now if a few things fall in place we can exceed expectations but for right now I could not argue with him. Hope it's better though.

 

[SPK145]

I predicted the same record as Jerry has.

That should send Willard packing.

 

[shu09]

I have 8-4 in the non-conference, 6-12 in the league. 14-16 overall.

 

[hallgrad80]

I think that the Seton Hall administration will use the flimsiest rational to bring KW back for year 7 and only an absolute disaster will really put him on the hot seat.

 

[NYC Pirate]

I kind of see about the same record as Carino. The OOC should give us a look into the
window of this team's heart and soul. I believe they'll be 4-1 by the time they get back from
Charleston. We'll also know if IW has elevated and matured on the court. This kid is the key
and the only way to a very successful season. If they play well early and the fan base senses
good team chemistry the Pirate faithful will bring a positive atmosphere against Georgia. At that point we'll know if they can compete this year. Hopefully, they keep up the momentum by the Wichita St game in December.

The Big East games really expose your team and by that time the more experienced coaches start to adjust their game planning. So you would think that unless the Pirates have a terrible OOC record this will determine the short term future of this program. I have to be honest and say that I just don't know if we can overcome A) the size of the frontcourt players in the Big East, B) are these players tough enough to win on the road? Guys like Carrington & Desi have to make huge strides and play tons of minutes to fill the void left by the players that did not return.

Assuming that nothing will change in the offensive system Whitehead has to play at 1st or 2nd team all-conference level. There can be no slippage from Delgado either. Angel has to play solid and with passion, but limit his frustrations on the court. Stay on that double/double level and upgrade his defense from last year.

So the nucleus for a good team is really in place. We can't forget that we have 3 highly touted recruits on this squad with much more experience than when they first arrived. There are some nice support players at minimum. The issues will be depth and size in the frontcourt and we have to be fair and say that the coaching is in question. Outside shooting could be a problem, but that looks to be a wait and see. The intangibles could be early season success, team chemistry, and will fans show up and what type of atmosphere can we expect at the home games?

I'm in the group that will root my tail off for success and hope they turn it around. I'm not rooting against the team so the coach is removed. Let's see what happens. Go Pirates!!

 

[HallLine69]

Assuming Carino's prediction is correct what do you think will be KW's fate? Will this be enough to get him a contract extension?

OMG, I hope not. For Willard to stay we should see 20+ wins, a .500 or better BE record and an NCAA bid. Also, I doubt Jerry's prediction of 17-13 would insure an NIT bid (not that it should matter anyway).

 

[Turiddu]

I am with Dan in attempting to let the season play out without feeding into the fire Willard chants. However, if that is their record then he has to go.There is talent on this team, but also huge question marks and six years ought to be enough time to build a well rounded roster. I hope we have a gangbusters year and will root for us to make the NCAA tournament.

 

[dcPirate]

If The Hall has a 6th straight losing record in conference under this regime at 8-10, it's time to move on...even if it would raise his conference winning % from 33.3% to 35.2%... Think about that for a minute...

I'm praying for a miracle, but have low expectations until proven otherwise.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Long Beach State is the most important game in the non conference. Beat them and get Virginia and most likely Okie State/Ole Miss in other game. That's a top 25 and top 50 RPI game. Lose to Long Beach and get Bradley (250+ RPI) and then George Mason/Towson (that's probably an RPI 150-225 game). That would absolutely kill the non conference schedule. Long Beach will be no pushover.

If the Hall makes the NIT and doesn't get clobbered in conference in February and March I would be shocked if Willard isn't here next year. Until proven otherwise Seton Hall hoops is nothing more than a mid major program.

 

[hallsoccer03]

If Seton hall has that record and makes the NIT, with us getting better as the season goes on I can see Willard staying. If you have that record with SHU having a losing streak at the end of the season and playing poorly like every other season under Willard he is gone. That's why I have no hope with Willard, we get worse, not better during each season

 

[Piratz]

Sounds about right from Jerry.

Imagine two seasons into that blockbuster recruiting classes and two losing conference records. Unreal.

 

[Piratz]

I am with Dan in attempting to let the season play out without feeding into the fire Willard chants. However, if that is their record then he has to go.There is talent on this team, but also huge question marks and six years ought to be enough time to build a well rounded roster. I hope we have a gangbusters year and will root for us to make the NCAA tournament.

This is the mantra every year though. And every year it's the same result because the coach struggles.

I'll be rooting for them to make me eat my words. I would love an exciting, winniing season of SHU basketball.

NCAA or fired. I don't care if they end well and are in the NIT. Not good enough. This coach has zero goodwill left. He proves he can turn it around and guide a team to the Dance, then good for him. And us.

If the players enjoy playing for him, they'll go through a wall for him this year.

 

[TheBluePirate]

I have 8-4 in the non-conference, 6-12 in the league. 14-16 overall.

One month ago, prior to any scrimmages, I predicted 8-4 non-con and 4-14 in the league, so 12-18 overall minus one more in the BET, so 12-19.

What are the key factors?

• sophomore dominant team with new upper classmen who have not already absorbed "the system" (in scare quotes for a reason)
• major failure in team leadership and chemistry last year does not disappear with a sprinkling of pixie dust

Honestly, I don't have to actually see the team to predict this kind of result given those important factors.

So - yep - it's likely going to stink.

Mitigating factors are:

• supposedly the "bad blood" is gone and while I am highly skeptical, I think it's more than just to wait and see if the team discovers itself.
• coach is supposedly going to "coach his ass off" - direct quote from another thread - and while my reaction is - "so you waited until year 6 to do your job" - I think it's also just to wait and see if there are any differences in team cohesion and execution

How long to wait? I'm thinking we'll have a first solid idea after the tournament in Charleston and by the second week of January we will KNOW how it will play out.

 

[Save Continental]

One month ago, prior to any scrimmages, I predicted 8-4 non-con and 4-14 in the league, so 12-18 overall minus one more in the BET, so 12-19.

• coach is supposedly going to "coach his ass off" - direct quote from another thread - and while my reaction is - "so you waited until year 6 to do your job" - I think it's also just to wait and see if there are any differences in team cohesion and execution

A lot of that "coach his ass off" stuff aligns with this article, which may also have you asking why this is happening in year 6...better late than never. By the way, i think you're spot on with the non-conf, but 4-14 in this league would just be dreadful. I think we're better than that, but not by a ton. I have us 8-4, 6-12.

http://www.app.com/story/sports/college/2015/11/11/seton-hall-and-willard-time-now/75564580/

In his sixth and most pivotal season in South Orange, head coach Kevin Willard has cranked up the volume.

“He’s much more intense this year,” point guard Isaiah Whitehead said. “You can feel it.”

 

[TheBluePirate]

Save - I could see 6 versus 4 - we're in the same ball park.

 

[hallgrad80]

I am with Dan in attempting to let the season play out without feeding into the fire Willard chants. However, if that is their record then he has to go.There is talent on this team, but also huge question marks and six years ought to be enough time to build a well rounded roster. I hope we have a gangbusters year and will root for us to make the NCAA tournament.

The ability to go thru the season without feeding into the Fire Willard's chants becomes a realistic goal depending on what we see on the court and what happens in the locker room. Lose to a couple of cupcakes like we did to SPC and FDU or get beaten by the teams ranked below us in the conference both times we play them , not show up in some games and have player discontent will open the floodgates of that Fire Willard chant. What happens this year and its results should give everyone all the information needed to decide KW's future.

 

[Pirate64]

It really depends on the SHU financial situation. I think the NIT will be enough reason to keep him and not buy him out. Paying a guy $2.8 million who no longer works for you is hard to swallow.
We'll see.

 

[TheBluePirate]

Thinking it is best to just see how it goes. There will be ample time for the proctoscope.

 

[jerseyjoepirate]

Thank you all for your answers. I have followed you posts for many years and just thought I should make my first post a question that has been on my mind for quite sometime. Just a little something about me. I saw my first Seton Hall game in 1939. I am a 1956 graduate of the HALL and have been a fan for all these year. I have seen many great players and use to attend all the home games. No one wants the pirates to succeed more than I. GO PIRATES

 

[Bobbie Solo]

jerseyjoepirate's posts bring up another growing problem with SHU bball. While it is awesome that an alum of your age has joined the board, it begs this question: where is the new blood going to come from for SHU bball? We've been so bad for so long that you are just not seeing many young alumni stick around at games after they graduate. I have more & more friends that lose interest every year (I'm 35). Jcalz seems to be one of the few truly young alumni who is active around the program and on here. The longer we suck, which goes hand in hand with the longer we keep Willard, so many young alum are going to disappear as fans. Yes this board is a small community, but it's the most diehard of the diehard mainly, and the median age is MUCH higher than it should be for a gathering site of fans following a college bball team in a major urban area. Add in that by nature college bball is also a young & predominantly black sport. Yet those two parts of the demo, the young being the most important obviously, are missing both here and overall. Sad state of affairs.

 

[NYC Pirate]

jerseyjoepirate's posts bring up another growing problem with SHU bball. While it is awesome that an alum of your age has joined the board, it begs this question: where is the new blood going to come from for SHU bball? We've been so bad for so long that you are just not seeing many young alumni stick around at games after they graduate. I have more & more friends that lose interest every year (I'm 35). Jcalz seems to be one of the few truly young alumni who is active around the program and on here. The longer we suck, which goes hand in hand with the longer we keep Willard, so many young alum are going to disappear as fans. Yes this board is a small community, but it's the most diehard of the diehard mainly, and the median age is MUCH higher than it should be for a gathering site of fans following a college bball team in a major urban area. Add in that by nature college bball is also a young & predominantly black sport. Yet those two parts of the demo, the young being the most important obviously, are missing both here and overall. Sad state of affairs.

Excellent Post!

 

[donnie_baseball]

. Long Beach will be no pushover.

They should be. They're terrible.

 

[SPK145]

They should be. They're terrible.

No they're not, lost all 5 starters but have 3 incoming transfers, 2 of which are REAL good (Faust from Maryland and Lewin from Marquette/Loyola Marymount) and get back a starter from the prior year. Not a good team mind you, but not a cupcake either.

 

[TheBluePirate]

No they're not, lost all 5 starters but have 3 incoming transfers, 2 of which are REAL good (Faust from Maryland and Lewin from Marquette/Loyola Marymount) and get back a starter from the prior year. Not a good team mind you, but not a cupcake either.

Agree with this - it is not even remotely automatic we get past them to reach and be shredded by Virginia.

 

[Seton75]

jerseyjoepirate's posts bring up another growing problem with SHU bball. While it is awesome that an alum of your age has joined the board, it begs this question: where is the new blood going to come from for SHU bball? We've been so bad for so long that you are just not seeing many young alumni stick around at games after they graduate. I have more & more friends that lose interest every year (I'm 35). Jcalz seems to be one of the few truly young alumni who is active around the program and on here. The longer we suck, which goes hand in hand with the longer we keep Willard, so many young alum are going to disappear as fans. Yes this board is a small community, but it's the most diehard of the diehard mainly, and the median age is MUCH higher than it should be for a gathering site of fans following a college bball team in a major urban area. Add in that by nature college bball is also a young & predominantly black sport. Yet those two parts of the demo, the young being the most important obviously, are missing both here and overall. Sad state of affairs.

I know we have not been any good. But I really don't get young alums not going to games. I would think the level of comp would encourage bb fans to come watch.

 

[mjs428]

The only 2 games we should lose in the non conference are Virginia & Wichita St. Anything else is unacceptable

 

[shupat08]

I know we have not been any good. But I really don't get young alums not going to games. I would think the level of comp would encourage bb fans to come watch.

And IMO the Young Alumni tickets are the best deals for SHU games... General Admission tickets behind the basket (you can sit anywhere in like a 3-4 section area) and the tickets cost roughly 13 dollars per game.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

The only 2 games we should lose in the non conference are Virginia & Wichita St. Anything else is unacceptable

Is Seton Hall better than Ole Miss or Georgia? Probably not. 2 tourney teams last year and 2 teams expected to make tourney again. I'm not saying they are not winnable but think we are underdogs to both of those teams. Oklahoma State is probably on par with us. We barely got by GW last season and while I think the Hall is better than GW it's also a 'true' road game. The non conference schedule is actually pretty good (provided we beat Long Beach - if we lose it becomes pretty bad). There is also the reality that this team could be really behind the 8 ball for a tourney bid come Christmas too.

 

[sami]

Just because young alumni don't join the bitchfest that this board can be doesn't mean they don't exist.

 

[jcalz88]

jerseyjoepirate's posts bring up another growing problem with SHU bball. While it is awesome that an alum of your age has joined the board, it begs this question: where is the new blood going to come from for SHU bball? We've been so bad for so long that you are just not seeing many young alumni stick around at games after they graduate. I have more & more friends that lose interest every year (I'm 35). Jcalz seems to be one of the few truly young alumni who is active around the program and on here. The longer we suck, which goes hand in hand with the longer we keep Willard, so many young alum are going to disappear as fans. Yes this board is a small community, but it's the most diehard of the diehard mainly, and the median age is MUCH higher than it should be for a gathering site of fans following a college bball team in a major urban area. Add in that by nature college bball is also a young & predominantly black sport. Yet those two parts of the demo, the young being the most important obviously, are missing both here and overall. Sad state of affairs.

Funny last season I talked about 5 buddies of mine into getting season tickets with the fiances or GFs. This year only two are renewing.

 

[hallgrad80]

You know what draws people to a sporting event , winning , something this program hasn't done in a very long time. Just look at how many empty seats there are at some of the football games of teams in the power five conferences. I saw a couple of minutes of the Miami U. Game last week and the stands were 3/4 empty which was not the case when Miami was a top ranked program. Another example is look at what the Mets drew this year as compared to what they drew the 3 previous seasons all because of their winning and being into playoff contention. I have no doubt that the Mets season ticket sales will show a material increase because they'll be a contending team for the foreseeable future. While they'll always be the hard core fan who goes in spite of the record what build a consistent fan base is winning and contending for the post season.

It is all about winning in terms of drawing fans, recruiting the higher ranked talent and increased fundraising.

 

[shupat08]

Just because young alumni don't join the bitchfest that this board can be doesn't mean they don't exist.

I sit in the "young alumni" section and based on how populated those sections are, there is not a great enthusiasm for SHU bball - unless we are winning and the big boys come into play.

Now, maybe these Young Alumni are so successful that they are buying expensive tickets straight outta college. To those YA, congrats! LOL.

 

[Piratz]

You know what draws people to a sporting event , winning , something this program hasn't done in a very long time. Just look at how many empty seats there are at some of the football games of teams in the power five conferences. I saw a couple of minutes of the Miami U. Game last week and the stands were 3/4 empty which was not the case when Miami was a top ranked program. Another example is look at what the Mets drew this year as compared to what they drew the 3 previous seasons all because of their winning and being into playoff contention. I have no doubt that the Mets season ticket sales will show a material increase because they'll be a contending team for the foreseeable future. While they'll always be the hard core fan who goes in spite of the record what build a consistent fan base is winning and contending for the post season.

It is all about winning in terms of drawing fans, recruiting the higher ranked talent and increased fundraising.

Bingo. Relevancy. Nobody is going to give up their valuable time and financial resources for a moribund program and, sadly, that's what we've become.

In our 10-year absence from the NCAA's there have been some flickers - Gonzo's 2009-10 team, Willard's 2011-12 team with Theodore/Pope, last year's team - but few and far between, and even those each ended so badly it leaves an even worse taste in the mouths of fans who actually do attend!

 

[shu09]

The only 2 games we should lose in the non conference are Virginia & Wichita St. Anything else is unacceptable

Prepare to be disappointed. Georgia and GW will be very tough games. And the third game in Charleston (even if you assume a W vs. Long Beach) won't be easy either.