Got permission to share the following summary. Everything pointing in the right direction:
Each Tuesday, the Covid-19 Forecast Hub posts a rolling 4-week ensemble forecast of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the United States. Regularly, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) publishes its own projections. IHME is one of several dozen academic and research organizations that provide models included in the ensemble forecast. We use these latest forecasts to assess where we stand with Covid-19 in the U.S.
As we shared in an earlier report, the Atlantic stopped updating its Covid Tracking Project dataset last weekend. We had relied on this site for test and hospitalization data. Beginning with today's report, we replace this information with similar data from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS). As is the case with any change in datasets, the sites rely on different sources and methods of obtaining data, which results in some differences in raw totals; however, the data appears to be aligned directionally. A larger problem stems from time lags built into the HHS reporting process: at this point, HHS's test data reflects a seven-day delay and the hospital data a four-day delay. Despite these delays, we are confident that the data provide excellent insight into how these vital signs are trending.
Cases and Infections: Newly-detected cases have plummeted to less than one-fourth of what they were in early January. The 7-day rate has dropped twelve straight days and fifty-three of the last fifty-five. However, this rate remains 2.5 times higher than what it was in early-June.
The ensemble forecast projects new cases will decline another 25% in the next four weeks, reaching a six-month low. IHME projects new infections (which are more prevalent than detected cases) will drop by one-half during this same four-week timeframe. These new infections could reach a pandemic low by April 2nd, according to the IHME model.
Covid-19 Inpatient Days: Covid-19 inpatient census had plunged by more than half since early-February when the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services began publishing its dataset. This census declined 13% in the last week alone and 25% in the past two weeks.
IHME predicts that the Covid-19 inpatient census will drop by one-third in the next four weeks and reach a 12-month low by April 14th. The ensemble forecast for hospital admissions will be published later in the week. Last week's forecast predicted a 27% decline in Covid-19 admissions over four weeks.
Deaths With Coronavirus: Deaths with coronavirus (on a 7-day average basis) have dropped more than 50% since peaking in mid-January, including 17% last week and 30% in the past three weeks. However, this rate is still three times higher than its 12-month low.
The ensemble forecast predicts deaths will decline by 40% in the next four weeks, reaching a twenty-two-week low. IHME predicts deaths will plunge 50% in the next four weeks and drop to a twelve-month low by April 21st.
Other vital signs we are tracking:
Vaccines: Daily vaccinations were lower on Monday and Tuesday than in recent days, a day-of-week pattern consistent with prior weeks. (Some of this pattern may be caused by reporting issues; more likely, it reflects that most vaccine shipments are scheduled on Tuesdays.) Still, the 7-day average vaccination rate increased by 10% over a week ago and by 70% in the past two weeks. With nearly seven million new doses distributed yesterday alone, vaccinations should surge again today and the next several days.
As of yesterday, nearly one-in-four U.S. residents have received at least one dose; one-in-eight have received two doses.
Estimated Immunity: About four-in-ten Americans may have protection against the virus, based on vaccination rates, estimated infection rates, vaccine efficacy, and a presumed two-week lag from infection or injection to immunity. This estimated immunity is tracking at or above the pace we anticipated in our immunity projection model. Our model projected the U.S. would reach 60% immunity by May 6th and 75% by June 15th.
Testing: Test-positivity has declined since mid-January and has reached its lowest point since early-October. The current 7-day rate is slightly higher than its pandemic low (4.8% v. 4.4%). Yesterday's rate (4.0%) set a single-day low for the pandemic.
Each Tuesday, the Covid-19 Forecast Hub posts a rolling 4-week ensemble forecast of Covid-19 cases and deaths in the United States. Regularly, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) publishes its own projections. IHME is one of several dozen academic and research organizations that provide models included in the ensemble forecast. We use these latest forecasts to assess where we stand with Covid-19 in the U.S.
As we shared in an earlier report, the Atlantic stopped updating its Covid Tracking Project dataset last weekend. We had relied on this site for test and hospitalization data. Beginning with today's report, we replace this information with similar data from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS). As is the case with any change in datasets, the sites rely on different sources and methods of obtaining data, which results in some differences in raw totals; however, the data appears to be aligned directionally. A larger problem stems from time lags built into the HHS reporting process: at this point, HHS's test data reflects a seven-day delay and the hospital data a four-day delay. Despite these delays, we are confident that the data provide excellent insight into how these vital signs are trending.
Cases and Infections: Newly-detected cases have plummeted to less than one-fourth of what they were in early January. The 7-day rate has dropped twelve straight days and fifty-three of the last fifty-five. However, this rate remains 2.5 times higher than what it was in early-June.
The ensemble forecast projects new cases will decline another 25% in the next four weeks, reaching a six-month low. IHME projects new infections (which are more prevalent than detected cases) will drop by one-half during this same four-week timeframe. These new infections could reach a pandemic low by April 2nd, according to the IHME model.
Covid-19 Inpatient Days: Covid-19 inpatient census had plunged by more than half since early-February when the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services began publishing its dataset. This census declined 13% in the last week alone and 25% in the past two weeks.
IHME predicts that the Covid-19 inpatient census will drop by one-third in the next four weeks and reach a 12-month low by April 14th. The ensemble forecast for hospital admissions will be published later in the week. Last week's forecast predicted a 27% decline in Covid-19 admissions over four weeks.
Deaths With Coronavirus: Deaths with coronavirus (on a 7-day average basis) have dropped more than 50% since peaking in mid-January, including 17% last week and 30% in the past three weeks. However, this rate is still three times higher than its 12-month low.
The ensemble forecast predicts deaths will decline by 40% in the next four weeks, reaching a twenty-two-week low. IHME predicts deaths will plunge 50% in the next four weeks and drop to a twelve-month low by April 21st.
Other vital signs we are tracking:
Vaccines: Daily vaccinations were lower on Monday and Tuesday than in recent days, a day-of-week pattern consistent with prior weeks. (Some of this pattern may be caused by reporting issues; more likely, it reflects that most vaccine shipments are scheduled on Tuesdays.) Still, the 7-day average vaccination rate increased by 10% over a week ago and by 70% in the past two weeks. With nearly seven million new doses distributed yesterday alone, vaccinations should surge again today and the next several days.
As of yesterday, nearly one-in-four U.S. residents have received at least one dose; one-in-eight have received two doses.
Estimated Immunity: About four-in-ten Americans may have protection against the virus, based on vaccination rates, estimated infection rates, vaccine efficacy, and a presumed two-week lag from infection or injection to immunity. This estimated immunity is tracking at or above the pace we anticipated in our immunity projection model. Our model projected the U.S. would reach 60% immunity by May 6th and 75% by June 15th.
Testing: Test-positivity has declined since mid-January and has reached its lowest point since early-October. The current 7-day rate is slightly higher than its pandemic low (4.8% v. 4.4%). Yesterday's rate (4.0%) set a single-day low for the pandemic.
