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Economic Shift

https://www.axios.com/2023/07/05/america-new-economic-hotspots-south

When you allow people to work remotely, where do you think they will move? Maybe warmer climates with much more favorable income/sales tax? More wealth drain.
Well, if you take away deducting your state income tax SALT deductions due to the Trump tax laws and combine that with states like FLA, Tenn and Texas that has no state’s income tax, many wealthy people will see a big savings by doing this. No surprise. However, I wonder how many of these people are doing the 6 months and a day thing in these states? They are not really moving just technically to save money. In the end, the center of wealth remains CA, NYC and the surrounding areas like NJ and Conn. it will remain that way as well. We shall see over the years.

I can’t blame anyone from trying to go to nice weather in the winter time. Hell, I want to do that when I retire. December to May sounds wonderful. I know a few people who have “moved” to Fl. But they really haven’t.
 
Well, if you take away deducting your state income tax SALT deductions due to the Trump tax laws and combine that with states like FLA, Tenn and Texas that has no state’s income tax, many wealthy people will see a big savings by doing this. No surprise. However, I wonder how many of these people are doing the 6 months and a day thing in these states? They are not really moving just technically to save money. In the end, the center of wealth remains CA, NYC and the surrounding areas like NJ and Conn. it will remain that way as well. We shall see over the years.
I think a lot are doing the 6 month and a day, but in terms of wealth, they are now spending half of that money in Florida….restaurants, shopping, entertainment, etc.
I can’t blame anyone from trying to go to nice weather in the winter time. Hell, I want to do that when I retire. December to May sounds wonderful. I know a few people who have “moved” to Fl. But they really haven’t.
As Boomers retire, will also be interesting to watch if they move and where they migrate.

Utah I think is a good example of the California shift and much lower taxes. That’s bright purple.
 
I think a lot are doing the 6 month and a day, but in terms of wealth, they are now spending half of that money in Florida….restaurants, shopping, entertainment, etc.

As Boomers retire, will also be interesting to watch if they move and where they migrate.

Utah I think is a good example of the California shift and much lower taxes. That’s bright purple.
i bet most people spend half of their money online. based on the real estate market in my area of pa nobody is moving out of here. just NY and NE people moving in
 
i bet most people spend half of their money online. based on the real estate market in my area of pa nobody is moving out of here. just NY and NE people moving in
Well you can't eat on-line or go to a concert on-line.

With PA, it depends on where, but overall the numbers are down as noted. Some areas are growing based on economy and retirement options. Retirees from NY/NJ are moving in waves across the river...over 26 retirement communities in the Lehigh Valley, most of which are new. Traditions of America has built several over 55's and majority of residents are from NJ/NY.

Before we moved, we ran the numbers and between what we saved in property taxes, utilities, entertainment, etc., I figured we could rent a condo anywhere in Europe for a month every year.
 
i bet most people spend half of their money online. based on the real estate market in my area of pa nobody is moving out of here. just NY and NE people moving in
I bet most people do not spend their money online. Geez, tell me you are a millennial living in an apartment without telling me you're a millennial living in an apartment.

Buying cars, service industry, restaurants, on and on... I look at my biggest spends this year - landscaping projects (service and materials), kids activities, pool (home improvement). Take capital improvements out of it - eating out, groceries, gasoline. I look at my neighbors, similar things including new cars. Country Club memberships or golf, bars, etc.

There is a zero percent chance that most people spend half of their money online. If you think that, you haven't done a budget and understand what you or others spend. I find that a lot in my career.
 
Well you can't eat on-line or go to a concert on-line.

With PA, it depends on where, but overall the numbers are down as noted. Some areas are growing based on economy and retirement options. Retirees from NY/NJ are moving in waves across the river...over 26 retirement communities in the Lehigh Valley, most of which are new. Traditions of America has built several over 55's and majority of residents are from NJ/NY.

Before we moved, we ran the numbers and between what we saved in property taxes, utilities, entertainment, etc., I figured we could rent a condo anywhere in Europe for a month every year.
Biggest RE trend right now is lack of inventory. People are reluctant to leave their 2-4% mortgages to flip them for a 6%+ mortgage. Unless they are retiring and fleeing the area, they're staying put. That said, everything that is hitting the market in the central NJ/eastern PA area are scooped up in price wars from cash offers. It's incredible. 20%+ over asking price in multiple bids, and the offers are all cash. Much of that is NY pushing south/west.
 
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Biggest RE trend right now is lack of inventory. People are reluctant to leave their 2-4% mortgages to flip them for a 6%+ mortgage. Unless they are retiring and fleeing the area, they're staying put. That said, everything that is hitting the market in the central NJ/eastern PA area are scooped up in price wars from cash offers. It's incredible. 20%+ over asking price in multiple bids, and the offers are all cash. Much of that is NY pushing south/west.
My youngest daughter is trying to buy her first house between Chatham and Basking Ridge with no success. Houses going for 10-20% over ask. She's missed on over 15 properties and she has bid over list each time. I'm hoping some guy that appreciates a 30 year old woman with a great job, personality, looks meets her soon!
 
My youngest daughter is trying to buy her first house between Chatham and Basking Ridge with no success. Houses going for 10-20% over ask. She's missed on over 15 properties and she has bid over list each time. I'm hoping some guy that appreciates a 30 year old woman with a great job, personality, looks meets her soon!
It's crazy right now. I'm in touch with several realtors in my network. As an advisor, unless someone really wants to get out of the area, I tell them it makes no sense to lose their low-rate mortgage right now so financially you're stuck in your house. I refinanced $400k of my mortgage last year to take some equity out for a pool and locked a 15-year mortgage at 2.125%. I flipped that from a 2.25% mortgage (already ridiculously low) that I had just done (yes, wife decided on pool after I refinanced) and increased my payment by $600/month plus year 15. That's $600/month to cash out $100k. Nearly free money.

If I refinanced my mortgage right now for 15 years, my payment would go from $2600 to $3275 per month. That's an extra $8100 per year, or over 3 extra payments at today's amount. Ludicrous - $121k over the course of the loan.
 
It's crazy right now. I'm in touch with several realtors in my network. As an advisor, unless someone really wants to get out of the area, I tell them it makes no sense to lose their low-rate mortgage right now so financially you're stuck in your house. I refinanced $400k of my mortgage last year to take some equity out for a pool and locked a 15-year mortgage at 2.125%. I flipped that from a 2.25% mortgage (already ridiculously low) that I had just done (yes, wife decided on pool after I refinanced) and increased my payment by $600/month plus year 15. That's $600/month to cash out $100k. Nearly free money.

If I refinanced my mortgage right now for 15 years, my payment would go from $2600 to $3275 per month. That's an extra $8100 per year, or over 3 extra payments at today's amount. Ludicrous - $121k over the course of the loan.
Once you have the pool, take my advice and never calculate the cost/swim.....lol. But I get it, that's not why you do it. For the few years it served as the family get-together and party location...priceless. Once it became just my wife and I, that also justified the move and another week in that European rental:!).
 
Once you have the pool, take my advice and never calculate the cost/swim.....lol. But I get it, that's not why you do it. For the few years it served as the family get-together and party location...priceless. Once it became just my wife and I, that also justified the move and another week in that European rental:!).
I was all set for a membership at Battleground (still might), but my family dynamic makes the pool a no-brainer. My daughter can be difficult and getting to a destination in a timely manner, if at all, isn't necessarily easy/consistent. To have it steps away is huge. And the kids are 8 so I have a good 15 years until they're really gone, if lucky.

It started in 2012 as a patio project so I can say I now have about 3,000 sq ft hardscaped, outdoor kitchen, standing fireplace in the "living room" and a dining area with 2 tables. The add-on around the pool added 1,200 sq ft to the original patio. Did a lot of the work myself so I can definitely say it was additive from an equity standpoint, as only the concrete countertop was contracted in the original build. I did the electrical and gas as well as the pavers and stonework.
 
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I was all set for a membership at Battleground (still might), but my family dynamic makes the pool a no-brainer. My daughter can be difficult and getting to a destination in a timely manner, if at all, isn't necessarily easy/consistent. To have it steps away is huge. And the kids are 8 so I have a good 15 years until they're really gone, if lucky.

It started in 2012 as a patio project so I can say I now have about 3,000 sq ft hardscaped, outdoor kitchen, standing fireplace in the "living room" and a dining area with 2 tables. The add-on around the pool added 1,200 sq ft to the original patio. Did a lot of the work myself so I can definitely say it was additive from an equity standpoint, as only the concrete countertop was contracted in the original build. I did the electrical and gas as well as the pavers and stonework.
That sounds awesome and you have a good runway for use with the age of your kids (it'll get the cost/swim down considerably). Would not trade the memories as we had something similar but on a bit smaller scale. For twelve years, we hosted an "Annual Burger Throw-Down" where each "participant" had to show up with at least 18 sliders with their own recipes....the last year we had 65 people and 18 entries...do the math...320 - 350 sliders and I did all the grilling! The competition got pretty intense the last 4-5 years as we had all kinds of prizes.

One tradition ends....a new one begins.
 
I bet most people do not spend their money online. Geez, tell me you are a millennial living in an apartment without telling me you're a millennial living in an apartment.

Buying cars, service industry, restaurants, on and on... I look at my biggest spends this year - landscaping projects (service and materials), kids activities, pool (home improvement). Take capital improvements out of it - eating out, groceries, gasoline. I look at my neighbors, similar things including new cars. Country Club memberships or golf, bars, etc.

There is a zero percent chance that most people spend half of their money online. If you think that, you haven't done a budget and understand what you or others spend. I find that a lot in my career.
i live in the house that i own.
 
i live in the house that i own.
Okay, if you own a house my guess is that you are spending the vast majority of your money on:
- Mortgage
- Property Taxes
- Utilities
- Food (Supermarket or restaurant), etc.
- Automobile (Owned or leased)
- Services (Landscaping, Uber, etc.).
- Healthcare

Unless you have an obscene Amazon bill, how do you come to the conclusion that most of the money you spend is on-line (and not contributing tot he local government or economy?
 
I bet most people do not spend their money online. Geez, tell me you are a millennial living in an apartment without telling me you're a millennial living in an apartment.

Buying cars, service industry, restaurants, on and on... I look at my biggest spends this year - landscaping projects (service and materials), kids activities, pool (home improvement). Take capital improvements out of it - eating out, groceries, gasoline. I look at my neighbors, similar things including new cars. Country Club memberships or golf, bars, etc.

There is a zero percent chance that most people spend half of their money online. If you think that, you haven't done a budget and understand what you or others spend. I find that a lot in my career.
i was responding to the claim that money is spent outside if their home state. the expenses you stated would all be in the home state
 
i live in the house that i own.
Analyze your spend and tell me half of what you spend is online. And don’t count online things like groceries that are shop from home from a local grocery store.

I would be shocked if more than half of your spend supports national sources rather than state sourced retailers paying state sales tax.
 
i was responding to the claim that money is spent outside if their home state. the expenses you stated would all be in the home state
We’re on the same page then, my bad.
 
There’s a good SALT workaround if you pay your taxes through an LLC. There’s a little more to it, so please ask a professional.
 
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