Projecting college basketball's best offenses
1. Duke Blue Devils
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski makes this "predicting the five best offenses" thing a piece of cake. While Duke defenses are a highly variable quantity from season to season, the last time the Blue Devil offense was a problem guys like Greg Paulus and Jon Scheyer were slapping the floor at Cameron Indoor as plucky underclassmen. Put another way: Duke had the ACC's best offense for a remarkable five consecutive seasons, until Notre Dame (barely) beat out the Blue Devils for that honor in 2015-16.
I fully expect Coach K's guys to recapture that distinction in 2016-17. I'll spare you the comparisons to the national championship roster of 2014-15, except to say that combining freshmen like Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum with veterans like Grayson Allen and Matt Jones reminds me an awful lot of the blend of newcomers (Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones) and old-timers (Quinn Cook) that Krzyzewski had on hand two seasons ago. Duke's main weakness on offense last season was simply a lack of offensive boards, but, assuming Giles is healthy after two previous knee injuries and/or that Amile Jefferson returns full-speed, that issue will disappear. This is going to be one very tough team to outscore.
2. Villanova Wildcats
I've put some thought into this sweeping declaration, and I have to say I doubt we'll ever see another national champion shoot as well as Villanova did over the course of six games in the 2015 NCAA tournament. During that run Jay Wright's guys connected on 63 percent of their 2s and exactly 50 percent (56-of-112) of their 3s. Give credit to Kansas and, of course, to North Carolina for very nearly prevailing against a juggernaut shooting that absurdly well.
No, the Wildcats won't post numbers like that across the entirety of the 2016-17 season, especially not now that Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu have both graduated. Yes, Nova will even (gasp!) have an occasional off game or two when it comes to scoring. But just look at what Wright's been able to accomplish across shifting personnel groups over the last three seasons. Whether the featured scorer du jour was JayVaughn Pinkston, James Bell, Darrun Hilliard, Josh Hart or Kris Jenkins, none of those teams posted an effective field-goal percentage below 54 percent in Big East play. Now Hart and Jenkins return, along with Jalen Brunson and Phil Booth. Recent history suggests rather insistently that these players and this coach will be able to put points on the board.
3. Oregon Ducks
Oregon put an excellent offense on the floor last season despite the fact that the Ducks' accuracy from the perimeter was merely average (35 percent in Pac-12 play). If you're keeping track at home you know this must mean everything else was outstanding. Sure enough, coach Dana Altman's men made their 2s, took care of the ball and crashed the offensive glass with zeal.
All of which should continue apace in 2016-17, even with the departures of Elgin Cook and Dwayne Benjamin. This selection assumes the presence of a healthy and productive Dillon Brooks, and lately the junior's foot injury has been the subject of much speculation but precious little explanation. Make no mistake, if Brooks comes back 100 percent and joins Tyler Dorsey, Chris Boucher, Dylan Ennis, Jordan Bell and Casey Benson, Altman will have everything he needs for one formidable Quack Attack.
4. Kentucky Wildcats
I'll confess the me of 365 days ago would look at this pick and be worried. Kentucky is going to be very young this season, even by Kentucky standards.
Well, guess what? UK's going to be exactly as young as it was last season, and that team turned out to have an outstanding offense (one that scored a whopping 1.17 points per possession in SEC play). Sure, that was with Tyler Ulis coming back as a sophomore, and you can make a good case that no returning Wildcat this season is likely to win SEC Player of the Year the way Ulis did. Then again the production of Skal Labissiere should be somewhat easier for this latest batch of newcomers to replicate. In fact with De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk, Isaiah Briscoe, Wenyen Gabriel and Derek Willis, I anticipate that John Calipari will be able to fashion one of the best offenses in the country.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
Roy Williams may be a 2-point jump-shot-loving coach in a dunks-and-3s world, but he might be on to something. The Tar Heels have long been outstanding on the offensive glass, and in recent years their turnover rate has declined to the point where UNC's now significantly better than the ACC average in terms of taking care of the ball. When you don't commit turnovers and you rebound a very high share of your misses, the result, not surprisingly, is going to be a ton of shot attempts. That dynamic propelled Carolina to within an eyelash of a national title in April.
Can this same approach work as well this season without Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige on the floor? Well, no, probably not, but you'll notice I have the Heels at No. 5 here and not No. 1. With Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, Joel Berry II and Kennedy Meeks all getting plenty of chances to score, this offense again figures to be a stylistic throwback that moves the team forward in the standings.
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John GasawayESPN Insider
1. Duke Blue Devils
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski makes this "predicting the five best offenses" thing a piece of cake. While Duke defenses are a highly variable quantity from season to season, the last time the Blue Devil offense was a problem guys like Greg Paulus and Jon Scheyer were slapping the floor at Cameron Indoor as plucky underclassmen. Put another way: Duke had the ACC's best offense for a remarkable five consecutive seasons, until Notre Dame (barely) beat out the Blue Devils for that honor in 2015-16.
I fully expect Coach K's guys to recapture that distinction in 2016-17. I'll spare you the comparisons to the national championship roster of 2014-15, except to say that combining freshmen like Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum with veterans like Grayson Allen and Matt Jones reminds me an awful lot of the blend of newcomers (Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones) and old-timers (Quinn Cook) that Krzyzewski had on hand two seasons ago. Duke's main weakness on offense last season was simply a lack of offensive boards, but, assuming Giles is healthy after two previous knee injuries and/or that Amile Jefferson returns full-speed, that issue will disappear. This is going to be one very tough team to outscore.
2. Villanova Wildcats
I've put some thought into this sweeping declaration, and I have to say I doubt we'll ever see another national champion shoot as well as Villanova did over the course of six games in the 2015 NCAA tournament. During that run Jay Wright's guys connected on 63 percent of their 2s and exactly 50 percent (56-of-112) of their 3s. Give credit to Kansas and, of course, to North Carolina for very nearly prevailing against a juggernaut shooting that absurdly well.
No, the Wildcats won't post numbers like that across the entirety of the 2016-17 season, especially not now that Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu have both graduated. Yes, Nova will even (gasp!) have an occasional off game or two when it comes to scoring. But just look at what Wright's been able to accomplish across shifting personnel groups over the last three seasons. Whether the featured scorer du jour was JayVaughn Pinkston, James Bell, Darrun Hilliard, Josh Hart or Kris Jenkins, none of those teams posted an effective field-goal percentage below 54 percent in Big East play. Now Hart and Jenkins return, along with Jalen Brunson and Phil Booth. Recent history suggests rather insistently that these players and this coach will be able to put points on the board.
3. Oregon Ducks
Oregon put an excellent offense on the floor last season despite the fact that the Ducks' accuracy from the perimeter was merely average (35 percent in Pac-12 play). If you're keeping track at home you know this must mean everything else was outstanding. Sure enough, coach Dana Altman's men made their 2s, took care of the ball and crashed the offensive glass with zeal.
All of which should continue apace in 2016-17, even with the departures of Elgin Cook and Dwayne Benjamin. This selection assumes the presence of a healthy and productive Dillon Brooks, and lately the junior's foot injury has been the subject of much speculation but precious little explanation. Make no mistake, if Brooks comes back 100 percent and joins Tyler Dorsey, Chris Boucher, Dylan Ennis, Jordan Bell and Casey Benson, Altman will have everything he needs for one formidable Quack Attack.
4. Kentucky Wildcats
I'll confess the me of 365 days ago would look at this pick and be worried. Kentucky is going to be very young this season, even by Kentucky standards.
Well, guess what? UK's going to be exactly as young as it was last season, and that team turned out to have an outstanding offense (one that scored a whopping 1.17 points per possession in SEC play). Sure, that was with Tyler Ulis coming back as a sophomore, and you can make a good case that no returning Wildcat this season is likely to win SEC Player of the Year the way Ulis did. Then again the production of Skal Labissiere should be somewhat easier for this latest batch of newcomers to replicate. In fact with De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk, Isaiah Briscoe, Wenyen Gabriel and Derek Willis, I anticipate that John Calipari will be able to fashion one of the best offenses in the country.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
Roy Williams may be a 2-point jump-shot-loving coach in a dunks-and-3s world, but he might be on to something. The Tar Heels have long been outstanding on the offensive glass, and in recent years their turnover rate has declined to the point where UNC's now significantly better than the ACC average in terms of taking care of the ball. When you don't commit turnovers and you rebound a very high share of your misses, the result, not surprisingly, is going to be a ton of shot attempts. That dynamic propelled Carolina to within an eyelash of a national title in April.
Can this same approach work as well this season without Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige on the floor? Well, no, probably not, but you'll notice I have the Heels at No. 5 here and not No. 1. With Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, Joel Berry II and Kennedy Meeks all getting plenty of chances to score, this offense again figures to be a stylistic throwback that moves the team forward in the standings.
