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'Do not draft' list for 2016 fantasy football
Eric Karabell explains why fantasy football owners should avoid drafting Panthers QB Cam Newton, especially in the first few rounds of a draft. (0:51)
Aug 20, 2016
Things have considerably changed today, as Newton is that quarterback, the first one off the draft board, and thus, he shows up leading my annual “do not draft” list. Nice guy, nice player, but no longer close to nice value. Newton is going early in the second round in current ADP, and that’s no discount. I’ll wait on my quarterbacks a lot longer.
Value is the key in any draft, and context is important. I neither predict statistical doom for Newton nor tell anyone to blindly avoid him, but he’s poor value in the overall top 15 because quarterback is a deep position, and though there are many ways to construct a team, I find it easier to build with flex-eligible options first, then find the passers -- and tight ends, as we’ll see -- later on.
Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were the first quarterbacks off the 2015 draft board for most, starting late in Round 1. They made this list last season because there was no way I would have drafted them before someone else would have. By the way, like pretty much every quarterback chosen in the first two rounds the past decade, they proved to be not even close to worth it.
Now that we’ve established that saying “do not draft” means “do not draft based on ADP value,” let’s check out the list.
Quarterback
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: I draft running backs and wide receivers -- and generally, based on best available -- in the first five rounds, at least. I rank Newton 40th overall. None of this means you can’t win a league by taking him in Round 1, but don’t assume you will find late-round running backs such as Devonta Freeman and David Johnson to emerge and carry you. By the way, Newton isn’t rushing for 10 scores again. Every quarterback to do that since 1970 has lost at least six rushing TDs the following year, including Newton himself in 2012. He might end up fantasy’s top quarterback, but he'll probably have 50 fewer points.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bortles misses my top 10 at quarterback because I don’t see the friendly confluence of factors that landed him as a top-five fantasy option last season occurring again. The Jags couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t keep up with teams defensively, and Bortles was forced to throw a ton and quite a bit in the latter stages of games, when there was much stat-padding. As a general theme, relying on stat-padding is dangerous. Now the Jags can run with Chris Ivory, I think, and defend better. I rank Bortles 11th, so it’s not that I think he’s Jay Cutler, but still, he’ll be over-drafted at his position and especially overall.
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: I don’t get it. Over Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford? I’d rather have Ryan Fitzpatrick. (By the way, Buffalo’s Taylor is really good.) The Vikings attempted the fewest passes in the NFL last year, and though modest wide receiver upgrades have occurred, at least in theory, it’s still Adrian Peterson on first and second down. Bridgewater isn’t even a good fantasy backup, as he lacks statistical upside. You’ll mock and hate this comparison, but this is the NFC Alex Smith, simply trying to avoid turnovers. Good for him -- the Vikings are a playoff team, after all.
Running back
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: He remains in my top 20 at the position because, well, I can’t find 20 running backs who deserve it. On opportunity alone, Hyde is intriguing. The skills are there, and some view the addition of Chip Kelly as a boon to his value. I don’t. The Eagles were a mess last year, and Kelly’s theories and refusal to adapt played significant roles. In theory, yes, more offensive plays are a good thing for the offensive players, but the 49ers lack good quarterback options and respectable offensive line choices, and the schedule, not only in the terrifying NFC West, is a problem. Plus, foot and ankle injuries have held Hyde back. In Round 6 or Round 7, I’ll invest, but he’ll go earlier. Frankly, the better 49ers running back value is Shaun Draughn in Round 14.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: His 2015 numbers appear fine, and we celebrated his best season in a while, but those numbers are mainly volume-based, and I must question the future volume because of injuries. You’ve got to think another running back on the Panthers steps up if Cameron Artis-Payne cannot. Stewart is inefficient and isn’t the goal-line back anyway. The QB is.
Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears: Blessed with opportunity as a rookie but clearly unproductive, Langford has opened the door for others. He didn’t break tackles, made few big plays and dropped passes, and again, there’s depth in the backfield, even with Matt Forte gone. Look elsewhere. In a year, we’ll look back and be shocked at how many people liked Langford.
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans: Murray could be a value pick if selected later, I suppose, but he sure looked finished last season, and it couldn’t have been all Kelly’s fault. No Titan has rushed for 600 yards in either of the past two seasons. Murray is more talented than Bishop Sankey and should reach that mark but not double it. He was a product of the Dallas O-line, and because there’s a bigger, younger, heavier fellow (the Titans spent a second-round pick on Derrick Henry), Murray could struggle to score touchdowns.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: Chris Ivory was top 10 in standard running back points, and the organization went and got him for a reason. The reason is Yeldon wasn’t so good.
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles: Even if the offensive line were passable, this guy can’t stay healthy. He has been hurt all summer.
'Do not draft' list for 2016 fantasy football
Eric Karabell explains why fantasy football owners should avoid drafting Panthers QB Cam Newton, especially in the first few rounds of a draft. (0:51)
Aug 20, 2016
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Eric KarabellESPN Senior Writer
Things have considerably changed today, as Newton is that quarterback, the first one off the draft board, and thus, he shows up leading my annual “do not draft” list. Nice guy, nice player, but no longer close to nice value. Newton is going early in the second round in current ADP, and that’s no discount. I’ll wait on my quarterbacks a lot longer.
Value is the key in any draft, and context is important. I neither predict statistical doom for Newton nor tell anyone to blindly avoid him, but he’s poor value in the overall top 15 because quarterback is a deep position, and though there are many ways to construct a team, I find it easier to build with flex-eligible options first, then find the passers -- and tight ends, as we’ll see -- later on.
Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were the first quarterbacks off the 2015 draft board for most, starting late in Round 1. They made this list last season because there was no way I would have drafted them before someone else would have. By the way, like pretty much every quarterback chosen in the first two rounds the past decade, they proved to be not even close to worth it.
Now that we’ve established that saying “do not draft” means “do not draft based on ADP value,” let’s check out the list.
Quarterback
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: I draft running backs and wide receivers -- and generally, based on best available -- in the first five rounds, at least. I rank Newton 40th overall. None of this means you can’t win a league by taking him in Round 1, but don’t assume you will find late-round running backs such as Devonta Freeman and David Johnson to emerge and carry you. By the way, Newton isn’t rushing for 10 scores again. Every quarterback to do that since 1970 has lost at least six rushing TDs the following year, including Newton himself in 2012. He might end up fantasy’s top quarterback, but he'll probably have 50 fewer points.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Bortles misses my top 10 at quarterback because I don’t see the friendly confluence of factors that landed him as a top-five fantasy option last season occurring again. The Jags couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t keep up with teams defensively, and Bortles was forced to throw a ton and quite a bit in the latter stages of games, when there was much stat-padding. As a general theme, relying on stat-padding is dangerous. Now the Jags can run with Chris Ivory, I think, and defend better. I rank Bortles 11th, so it’s not that I think he’s Jay Cutler, but still, he’ll be over-drafted at his position and especially overall.
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: I don’t get it. Over Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford? I’d rather have Ryan Fitzpatrick. (By the way, Buffalo’s Taylor is really good.) The Vikings attempted the fewest passes in the NFL last year, and though modest wide receiver upgrades have occurred, at least in theory, it’s still Adrian Peterson on first and second down. Bridgewater isn’t even a good fantasy backup, as he lacks statistical upside. You’ll mock and hate this comparison, but this is the NFC Alex Smith, simply trying to avoid turnovers. Good for him -- the Vikings are a playoff team, after all.
Running back
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: He remains in my top 20 at the position because, well, I can’t find 20 running backs who deserve it. On opportunity alone, Hyde is intriguing. The skills are there, and some view the addition of Chip Kelly as a boon to his value. I don’t. The Eagles were a mess last year, and Kelly’s theories and refusal to adapt played significant roles. In theory, yes, more offensive plays are a good thing for the offensive players, but the 49ers lack good quarterback options and respectable offensive line choices, and the schedule, not only in the terrifying NFC West, is a problem. Plus, foot and ankle injuries have held Hyde back. In Round 6 or Round 7, I’ll invest, but he’ll go earlier. Frankly, the better 49ers running back value is Shaun Draughn in Round 14.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: His 2015 numbers appear fine, and we celebrated his best season in a while, but those numbers are mainly volume-based, and I must question the future volume because of injuries. You’ve got to think another running back on the Panthers steps up if Cameron Artis-Payne cannot. Stewart is inefficient and isn’t the goal-line back anyway. The QB is.
Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears: Blessed with opportunity as a rookie but clearly unproductive, Langford has opened the door for others. He didn’t break tackles, made few big plays and dropped passes, and again, there’s depth in the backfield, even with Matt Forte gone. Look elsewhere. In a year, we’ll look back and be shocked at how many people liked Langford.
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans: Murray could be a value pick if selected later, I suppose, but he sure looked finished last season, and it couldn’t have been all Kelly’s fault. No Titan has rushed for 600 yards in either of the past two seasons. Murray is more talented than Bishop Sankey and should reach that mark but not double it. He was a product of the Dallas O-line, and because there’s a bigger, younger, heavier fellow (the Titans spent a second-round pick on Derrick Henry), Murray could struggle to score touchdowns.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: Chris Ivory was top 10 in standard running back points, and the organization went and got him for a reason. The reason is Yeldon wasn’t so good.
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles: Even if the offensive line were passable, this guy can’t stay healthy. He has been hurt all summer.
