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Halldan1

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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I posted the other day to expect a loss at Xavier and a win against SJU making us 4-4 in the conference.

The loss is in the books and the win will come Wed.

Then the season ramps up into overdrive.

Here's what I expect.


Wed Jan 27 St. John's Home
The expected win as noted above


Then


Sat Jan 30 Creighton Away
Loss by 5-8 points

Wed Feb 3 Marquette Home
Win by 4-8 points

Sat Feb 6 Georgetown Home
Win by 2-4 points

Wed Feb 10 Butler Home
Win by 1-3 points

Wed Feb 17 Georgetown Away
Loss by 4-6 points

Sun Feb 21 St. John's Away
Win by 4-8 points

Thu Feb 25 Providence Home
Win by 1-3 points

Sun Feb 28 Xavier Home
Loss by 2-4 points

Wed Mar 2 Butler Away
Loss by 4-5 points

Sat Mar 5 DePaul Away
Win by 1-3 points

That's 6-4 down the stretch. BUT I think we'll get upset in one of my win predictions so I'll even out the final 10 games with a 5-5 record giving us what I predicted at the beginning of the league season 9-9 and on the NCAA bubble entering the the tournament at the Garden.
 
I think that's a bit optimistic. I think PC could beat us at home and Butler could sweep us.
I agree with the rest. But who knows.

Bubble team at best because KW is not going to change anything ( defending the 3, or the pick and roll) on defense. And we have no 3 point shooters who he trusts very much on defense.

Let's hope something new happens for the good.
 
Pirate64 said:
I think that's a bit optimistic. I think PC could beat us at home and Butler could sweep us.
I agree with the rest. But who knows.

Bubble team at best because KW is not going to change anything ( defending the 3, or the pick and roll) on defense. And we have no 3 point shooters who he trusts very much on defense.

Let's hope something new happens for the good.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but the other way to look at it is we can beat any team left on the schedule so splitting our last 10 games is not far fetched.
 
I agree that we can beat any of the remainder of the teams on the schedule, especially if IW hits his shots. And guys like Ish and Nzei make there shots from under the basket.
In the old BE with teams of the past , we would get slaughtered against top 10 teams, but these guys seem to be made up of a different mindset. We need to pack the rock for the remainder of the home games.
 
Ish and Nezi have not scored in the last 2 games. Think about that. Given the amount of minutes they play (esp Sanago), that cannot happen. You need to produce something on the offensive end
 
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According to those predictions that would give us a tepid resume...two quality wins vs Providence on the road and Butler at home. Georgetown might or might not be one. That is an NIT resume at 9-9. The positive is that the team is playing hard; the negative is that our warts continue to show and the question "can Willard lead this team down the stretch? is still a question.
 
9-9 gets us in the big dance. The Big East is still a top notch conference and if we finish 5-5 our resume wont be great but decent. Decent is all you need to be when the field includes 68 teams.
 
Halldan1 said:
I posted the other day to expect a loss at Xavier and a win against SJU making us 4-4 in the conference.

The loss is in the books and the win will come Wed.

Then the season ramps up into overdrive.

Here's what I expect.


Wed Jan 27 St. John's Home
The expected win as noted above


Then


Sat Jan 30 Creighton Away
Loss by 5-8 points

Wed Feb 3 Marquette Home
Win by 4-8 points

Sat Feb 6 Georgetown Home
Win by 2-4 points

Wed Feb 10 Butler Home
Win by 1-3 points

Wed Feb 17 Georgetown Away
Loss by 4-6 points

Sun Feb 21 St. John's Away
Win by 4-8 points

Thu Feb 25 Providence Home
Win by 1-3 points

Sun Feb 28 Xavier Home
Loss by 2-4 points

Wed Mar 2 Butler Away
Loss by 4-5 points

Sat Mar 5 DePaul Away
Win by 1-3 points

That's 6-4 down the stretch. BUT I think we'll get upset in one of my win predictions so I'll even out the final 10 games with a 5-5 record giving us what I predicted at the beginning of the league season 9-9 and on the NCAA bubble entering the the tournament at the Garden.
Click to expand...
 
Good analysis. Should be a fun few weeks. I can see a W at Creighton. If you put that game in the win column. 11-7 and a W in NYC and we are in. KW gets his extension and we have a stable and growing men's basketball program. Let's pull for the kids and the coaches, we are so close.
 
Mary Poppins here.
I have the Hall going eight wins and two losses
Creighton Win
Marquette win
Georgetown win
Butler win
Georgetown loss Unfortunately I will be there
St.John's win
Providence win
Xavier win
Butler Loss
DePaul win
 
I think we rally need the next 3. Can't mess around with home games against St. John's and Marquette. Need to avenge the Creighton loss too.
 
Turiddu said:
Mary Poppins here.
I have the Hall going eight wins and two losses
Creighton Win
Marquette win
Georgetown win
Butler win
Georgetown loss Unfortunately I will be there
St.John's win
Providence win
Xavier win
Butler Loss
DePaul win
Click to expand...

Turridu, you ate the entire sack of sugar, didn't you, LOL!
 
I think its just crazy to predict anything at this point. We still don't know what we
have with this team. We've lost 4 of 5 games?? The frontcourt is not scoring outside of Desi.

I do believe we can be successful at Prudential and that we do have a realistic chance to compile
9 wins before the BigEast Tournament. It's not going to be so easy. The Creighton road game is
going to set the tone. It seems to never work out when you say that's a win and that's a loss.
 
Halldan1 said:
I posted the other day to expect a loss at Xavier and a win against SJU making us 4-4 in the conference.

The loss is in the books and the win will come Wed.

Then the season ramps up into overdrive.

Here's what I expect.


Wed Jan 27 St. John's Home
The expected win as noted above


Then


Sat Jan 30 Creighton Away
Loss by 5-8 points

Wed Feb 3 Marquette Home
Win by 4-8 points

Sat Feb 6 Georgetown Home
Win by 2-4 points

Wed Feb 10 Butler Home
Win by 1-3 points

Wed Feb 17 Georgetown Away
Loss by 4-6 points

Sun Feb 21 St. John's Away
Win by 4-8 points

Thu Feb 25 Providence Home
Win by 1-3 points

Sun Feb 28 Xavier Home
Loss by 2-4 points

Wed Mar 2 Butler Away
Loss by 4-5 points

Sat Mar 5 DePaul Away
Win by 1-3 points

That's 6-4 down the stretch. BUT I think we'll get upset in one of my win predictions so I'll even out the final 10 games with a 5-5 record giving us what I predicted at the beginning of the league season 9-9 and on the NCAA bubble entering the the tournament at the Garden.
Click to expand...
We are going to need IW & KC to start hitting from the perimeter or we will be looking at packed in defenses for th rest of the year. The 1-3-1 we were facing yesterday was a perfect example. We couldnt hit a three. They wouldnt let us near the basket.
 
We were a mess early on against the 1-3-1 but thought we found something good with Desi exposing the natural soft spots of that zone. It takes us a long time to recognize and adjust, but we did. We also rebounded well offensively against it, which was good.

The defensive end is where I thought we were uncharacteristically bad yesterday. They shot 46% for the game and also had 16 offensive rebounds. They are a great rebounding team and it showed. But we were asleep defensively far too often. Mauled.

Good defense and good FT shooting seem to go hand in and hand with this team. Focus.
 
Dan , you are more optimistic then I am . I don't see us beating GT at home or away and I see PC beating us at home in a revenge game . I thought we would go 8-10 in my pre-season guess with 9-9 not out of the realm of possibility. My biggest mistake is that I had us beating Creighton twice but they are far better then I thought.
 
Winning at Creighton is not impossible, provided their point guard or center is unavailable to play. Their own field advantage is huge in Omaha. A crowd of 9,000 doesn't happen even if they are paying the Little Sisters of the Poor. Sellout city baby! Plus, they're just a better coached team than SH.

I unfortunately see a Pirate ship,slowly sailing away again. But alas matey there's always ext year. Hope I'm wrong and I get to have a kumbaya moment too.
 
Halldan1 said:
I posted the other day to expect a loss at Xavier and a win against SJU making us 4-4 in the conference.

The loss is in the books and the win will come Wed.

Then the season ramps up into overdrive.

Here's what I expect.


Wed Jan 27 St. John's Home
The expected win as noted above


Then


Sat Jan 30 Creighton Away
Loss by 5-8 points

Wed Feb 3 Marquette Home
Win by 4-8 points

Sat Feb 6 Georgetown Home
Win by 2-4 points

Wed Feb 10 Butler Home
Win by 1-3 points

Wed Feb 17 Georgetown Away
Loss by 4-6 points

Sun Feb 21 St. John's Away
Win by 4-8 points

Thu Feb 25 Providence Home
Win by 1-3 points

Sun Feb 28 Xavier Home
Loss by 2-4 points

Wed Mar 2 Butler Away
Loss by 4-5 points

Sat Mar 5 DePaul Away
Win by 1-3 points

That's 6-4 down the stretch. BUT I think we'll get upset in one of my win predictions so I'll even out the final 10 games with a 5-5 record giving us what I predicted at the beginning of the league season 9-9 and on the NCAA bubble entering the the tournament at the Garden.
Click to expand...
gotta be better than that dan, thought shu would be 3-4 at this point, with a win at home vs nova and a win at home vs creighton, anyways shu needs to win remaining home games and steal some games on the road, have to be better than 9-9 in my opinion, i do think there are 7 wins left on the schedule
 
Vegas pj said:
I unfortunately see a Pirate ship,slowly sailing away again. But alas matey there's always ext year. Hope I'm wrong and I get to have a kumbaya moment too.
Click to expand...

I'd like to take this metaphor to conclusion if we implode again. What happens to a pirate captain who can't get it done after long enough? New Captain.
 
Our four losses have been against 4 legit true post players Ochefu(2), Grosselle, and Farr. We need to guard the paint, even if it means going back to the zone at times. Until we figure that out, any team that finds a way to attack the paint against us can beat us. I think we can still win a lot of games the rest of the way, but going against real big men has been a problem.
 
I don't know if less than 10 conference wins would get you in.......and that is a very tall order given the remaining schedule.
 
Piratefan2009 said:
I'd like to take this metaphor to conclusion if we implode again. What happens to a pirate captain who can't get it done after long enough? New Captain.
Click to expand...
Matey, ya does ta him what's they did do ole Blackbeard and buries him up to his neck in sand at low tide and let the sea do the work. Aye aye and goodbye Captain.
 
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9-9 doesn't do it imo. We don't have enough quality wins to get in with that record. I think 10 wins is our magic number, anything less and it's NIT.

I would be very surprised if we finish better 8-10.
 
If the spreads where set today (11 games):

v. SJU: -17.5
@ Creighton: +4
v. Marq: -8.5
v. Gtown: -4.5
v. But: +2.5
@Gtown: +4
@ SJU: -10.5
v. PC: -3.5
v. X: +2.5
@ But: +7.5
@ DePaul: -12.5

So per the chalk:
6-5 for 19-11 (9-9)

Good news from these spreads:
Comfortable margins (10 or more)(3 games)
3-0

Close games, but a decisive favorite (4.5-10 pt)(3 games)
2-1

So that's 5-1 in the games that look to have a decisive favorite. That gets you to 18-7 (8-5) in games that have a decent projected margin.

Toss up games (5)
1-4 record
These are the games that are most likely to flip against the spread. So if the chalk holds on the games with greater than 4 pt spreads, then you only need to flip the chalk on one of the four toss up games where the Hall will be underdogs. That would get you to 20-10 (10-8) and looking pretty good to dance.
 
he DePaul spread was a mistake. @DePaul should be -5.5'ish. I swung the HC the wrong way in that one.
 
My gut says the following..

SJU: W
Creighton: L
Marq: W
Gtown:W
But: W
Gtown: L
SJU: W
PC: L
X: L
But: L
DePaul: W
 
Have to beat the Johnnies twice, home Marquette, and at DePaul (although we always have trouble there). Must win those 4 games. Any loss there probably kills any type of momentum of trying to get a bid. Then find a way to get 2 or 3 more vs. the rest of the schedule. Need to be playing for a tourney berth for the rest of the season. If we are out of contention at any point in February it's time to make a change. The time is now.
 
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I heard Lunardi say that 10 wins in the Big East is probably not enough - he thinks the BE number is 11.
 
Depends who gets the 10 wins.

If it's SHU i would feel real good about our chances.

Of course beating another upper tier team would help.
 
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I wasted some time looking at this just before conference play started. I came away thinking that so long as we avoid losses to RPI poison St. John's, we should be comfortably in at 10-8 (especially if LBSU or Ole Miss settle in the top 100), and might even be safe at 9-9. The bubble is never as good as everyone thinks.
 
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Is Lunardi talking regular season or combined with BigEast Tournament?

Let's take them one at a time. Take care of business vs SJU.
 
mzadnik said:
I heard Lunardi say that 10 wins in the Big East is probably not enough - he thinks the BE number is 11.
Click to expand...
There's more to it than that, but it'll depend on who the 10 league wins come agajnst, and what that team's out of conference record is like. I'd feel a lot better if we had more than just Wichita State to hang our hats on, and something on the road, too.

We really need to beat XU once; that would look terrific. Another win over PC would help, too.
 
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