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TheGucc

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If you think COVID-19, after the massive loss of life already caused and projected, is a hoax, you’re in the same category as climate change deniers, moon landing deniers, flat-earthers, etc. and absolutely do not deserve the breath required to correct your lunacy.

I can’t fathom how people so close to a university (who I assume attended and got some kind of education?) can come to such stubbornly ignorant conclusions
 
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To expand on this, it seems as if you have your facts incorrect. I stated on the free board that over 99% of Americans do not have this virus. That is why I asked you if you knew the US population.

There are 327.2 million people in the US per a basic google search. Announced cases are currently around 452,000. That is 0.13% of the population, meaning 99.87% of the US does not have this virus at the present moment.

You also said that 100-200,000 people are going to die of this. That is not true. I suggest you view this model, which estimates a little over 60,000 people will die in the US of this virus: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america That is far less than the number you provided.

Believe in the science. Believe in the facts. Don't listen to the hysteria constantly running on cable news.

#facts #science
 
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If you think COVID-19, after the massive loss of life already caused and projected, is a hoax, you’re in the same category as climate change deniers, moon landing deniers, flat-earthers, etc. and absolutely do not deserve the breath required to correct your lunacy.

I can’t fathom how people so close to a university (who I assume attended and got some kind of education?) can come to such stubbornly ignorant conclusions

I believe climate change is real. No doubt about it. However maybe you can give me some understanding of what I'm missing. Manhattan was covered in ice during the ice age. There were no cars, no planes, no cow farts, etc and it all melted. What caused the climate change then? And how do we know the cause of climate change today is different than what has been going on for 20,000 years. I'm an amateur in this field, you seem to be an expert.
 
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I know that with the overwhelming amount of information available at your fingertips on the severity of climate change and how humans ARE directly impacting the shift that is currently far more drastic and changing far more rapidly than any warming or cooling cycle any time in earth's history, that it can be daunting to find sources that actually break down those mechanisms, proof, and back it up with data.

I have a handful of links here that are a good crash course intro on being educated on climate change, and I'm doing some more looking around to find ones that should be able to answer specific questions with data all in one place rather than having you raise a concern, me answer a question with a widely agreed upon conclusion among experts, and then you ask for the data afterwards.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-intermediate.htm
this first link also has an option to switch to a more basic explanation if it's a little too obtuse

also this
https://www.skepticalscience.com/human-fingerprint-in-global-warming.html

I'll update with some more as I find them.
 
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To expand on this, it seems as if you have your facts incorrect. I stated on the free board that over 99% of Americans do not have this virus. That is why I asked you if you knew the US population.

There are 327.2 million people in the US per a basic google search. Announced cases are currently around 452,000. That is 0.13% of the population, meaning 99.87% of the US does not have this virus at the present moment.

You also said that 100-200,000 people are going to die of this. That is not true. I suggest you view this model, which estimates a little over 60,000 people will die in the US of this virus: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america That is far less than the number you provided.

Believe in the science. Believe in the facts. Don't listen to the hysteria constantly running on cable news.

#facts #science
The white house model for total deaths is based off of data they've collected so far on CONFIRMED coronavirus cases and deaths, which ignores the fact that testing is still extraordinarily limited, didn't begin until the virus was already spreading quickly throughout several of our largest population centers, and that as a result of the way it interacts with other respiratory diseases, there are currently and will continue to be a slew of deaths caused by COVID-19 that are never counted as due to the disease because they died without receiving testing, and also before some of the additional symptoms that sets COVID-19 apart were known. It is the norm for hospitals throughout the US to not even test symptomatic patients for the virus unless the patient is severely, life-threateningly ill.

On April 1st, roughly a week ago, 100,000-240,000 deaths were projected by Fauci, who is not a media outlet and has no stake or benefit in sensationalizing. Also worth noting is that the white house online model for 60,000 deaths assumes that EVERY citizen practices proper social distancing to the T. You can look in any town in the US and see that that's not the case. Finally, it's worth noting that the earliest a vaccine could be available according to the FDA would be summer of 2021, and as we have seen with many respiratory flus before, there will be a resurgence in the coming fall as temperatures decrease again from the summer, and unless we are all still on lockdown when that occurs, it will lead to another slightly smaller wave of additional cases.
 
I know that with the overwhelming amount of information available at your fingertips on the severity of climate change and how humans ARE directly impacting the shift that is currently far more drastic and changing far more rapidly than any warming or cooling cycle any time in earth's history, that it can be daunting to find sources that actually break down those mechanisms, proof, and back it up with data.

I have a handful of links here that are a good crash course intro on being educated on climate change, and I'm doing some more looking around to find ones that should be able to answer specific questions with data all in one place rather than having you raise a concern, me answer a question with a widely agreed upon conclusion among experts, and then you ask for the data afterwards.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-intermediate.htm
this first link also has an option to switch to a more basic explanation if it's a little too obtuse

also this
https://www.skepticalscience.com/human-fingerprint-in-global-warming.html

I'll update with some more as I find them.
I also agree that climate change is real, and I don’t have a “side”. And as a recovering scientist, I’m most interested in breaking down the data and taking the emotion out of the discussion...focusing on solutions or ideas that are executable and have science supporting their ROI. If there is something in that link that is specifically supporting your position that would be helpful to point out. When either side spouts scare tactic talking points, to be honest, I’m going to tune it out.
 
Starting a thread by accusing people of holding positions they may not necessarily hold and then calling them stupid, lunatics, and other names, isn't exactly the best way to invite intelligent discussion.

If you could enlighten us whether you want this thread to be about Covid-19 or climate change that would be helpful.

If you're looking to also discuss Flat Earth, Area 51, and Jimmy Hoffa's whereabouts, please let us know that also.
 
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So much to unpack here, where to start?

1) The model I linked to is not a White House model. It is from IHME at the University of Washington. My understanding is it is being used by the federal and state government to assist with decision making, but it most certainly is NOT a White House model.

2) This virus interacts with other respiratory viruses? That is news to me. Please explain.

3) There are counting errors the other way as well. New York City is counting every death as a corona death, even if the patient died of something else. If there is corona in their body, they are being counted as a corona death no matter what. That is rife with errors.

4) Dr. Fauci has been wrong before. He is on record saying this virus is a low risk/threat to the US as recently as February, as has been documented on this board by SPK.

5) Everywhere I've been, people are being distant from one another. I don't know where you've been or what you've seen. The vast majority of the country are following the guidelines, even begrudgingly so at times. I do think it's wrong to snitch on people and attack them, as some politicians have and encouraged people to do. Most Americans do not have the virus. If only the politicians could get tests out to see where it is, then we wouldn't have to have the draconian measures. But then the politicians would lose their grip on power and control, which is what they want. They have a motive to keep testing limited because it increases their visibility and allows them to grab power easier.

6) You don't know that there will be a resurgence of cases. The virus is being snuffed out by the policies in place and the models show no new deaths after June if policies are kept in place to May. There may be a resurgence, but even if that happens we will be much better prepared to contain, test and contract trace. It will not require another shutdown, unless of course power hungry politicians decide to do this again.
 
I know that with the overwhelming amount of information available at your fingertips on the severity of climate change and how humans ARE directly impacting the shift that is currently far more drastic and changing far more rapidly than any warming or cooling cycle any time in earth's history, that it can be daunting to find sources that actually break down those mechanisms, proof, and back it up with data.

I have a handful of links here that are a good crash course intro on being educated on climate change, and I'm doing some more looking around to find ones that should be able to answer specific questions with data all in one place rather than having you raise a concern, me answer a question with a widely agreed upon conclusion among experts, and then you ask for the data afterwards.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-intermediate.htm
this first link also has an option to switch to a more basic explanation if it's a little too obtuse

also this
https://www.skepticalscience.com/human-fingerprint-in-global-warming.html

I'll update with some more as I find them.

Would you agree that half of the overwhelming information at our fingertips is garbage? I'm sure there are plenty of websites arguing against the ones you displayed with equal the charts. If you want to take a pompous position, go for it. But any amateur on this topic can read 100 articles on the topic and half will go one way, half will go the other way, how would they know what's right and what wrong. I guarantee you, with all the information at your fingertips you can find information that coca-cola is good for you. If you drink 2 liters a day for 25 years, good luck to you.
 
Would you agree that half of the overwhelming information at our fingertips is garbage? I'm sure there are plenty of websites arguing against the ones you displayed with equal the charts. If you want to take a pompous position, go for it. But any amateur on this topic can read 100 articles on the topic and half will go one way, half will go the other way, how would they know what's right and what wrong. I guarantee you, with all the information at your fingertips you can find information that coca-cola is good for you. If you drink 2 liters a day for 25 years, good luck to you.
I understand the sentiment of the idea here, but presented this way you can also just read it as "just believe nothing on the internet" which I know is not your point, but should be careful to be avoided. We literally have access to the conglomeration of global knowledge, and it isn't that difficult to pick out which seem reputable and which don't.
 
So much to unpack here, where to start?

1) The model I linked to is not a White House model. It is from IHME at the University of Washington. My understanding is it is being used by the federal and state government to assist with decision making, but it most certainly is NOT a White House model.

2) This virus interacts with other respiratory viruses? That is news to me. Please explain.

3) There are counting errors the other way as well. New York City is counting every death as a corona death, even if the patient died of something else. If there is corona in their body, they are being counted as a corona death no matter what. That is rife with errors.

4) Dr. Fauci has been wrong before. He is on record saying this virus is a low risk/threat to the US as recently as February, as has been documented on this board by SPK.

5) Everywhere I've been, people are being distant from one another. I don't know where you've been or what you've seen. The vast majority of the country are following the guidelines, even begrudgingly so at times. I do think it's wrong to snitch on people and attack them, as some politicians have and encouraged people to do. Most Americans do not have the virus. If only the politicians could get tests out to see where it is, then we wouldn't have to have the draconian measures. But then the politicians would lose their grip on power and control, which is what they want. They have a motive to keep testing limited because it increases their visibility and allows them to grab power easier.

6) You don't know that there will be a resurgence of cases. The virus is being snuffed out by the policies in place and the models show no new deaths after June if policies are kept in place to May. There may be a resurgence, but even if that happens we will be much better prepared to contain, test and contract trace. It will not require another shutdown, unless of course power hungry politicians decide to do this again.

1) For your pedantry, imagine I have edited my previous mentions of it to "the model that the white house has been quoting in its frequent addresses that make up most of the nation's general information on the topic." even though that is long-winded enough to be understandably truncated.

2) It does not take rocket science to understand how a virus which causes extensive lung fibrosis will worsen respiratory problems in smokers, people who have had pneumonia, those with asthma, etc.

3) I really don't think it's that far fetched to say that when you have a currently incurable, non-vaccinatable virus in your system when you die of illness, that that virus contributed. All flus that stress the respiratory system put immense stress on the body as a whole, it's central to your bodily functions. You wouldn't say someone with untreated TB or HIV who dies of illness wasn't also killed by that disease straining their body and immune system.

4) I'm seizing on the highest-profile, most reputable names here. Especially on something so large scale and catastrophic, I'm sure you can find someone claiming it would be this bad much earlier being labeled a doomsayer, and someone claiming it's nothing at all being labeled a denier. This is such a means-nothing point it really begins to question if you're arguing in good faith or just trying to "GOTCHA" things for the sake of being contrarian. Who would you say is a higher profile, more reputable source of health-related information in the US right now?

5) Your conspiracy theorist is showing. You're telling me that politicians would willingly tank the national economy and stock market, hurting themselves and their donors far more in sheer magnitude of wealth lost than the rest of us, all the while printing money in the form of extra stimulus and unemployment payment that goes directly against that motive as well?

6) and you don't know the sun will rise tomorrow, except that you've observed the same exact pattern before and so you count on it. Influenzas with lipid-based coatings that falter in heat experience resurgence in the fall and winter. It takes more than 3-4 months for an infectious disease to run its course when you can be exposed, not develop symptoms for 14 days, experience it for 1-2 weeks, and shed the disease all that time from first exposure while also shedding the disease up to a week after recovery. The math simply does not check out that it would run its course that quickly.
 
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There are 327.2 million people in the US per a basic google search. Announced cases are currently around 452,000. That is 0.13% of the population, meaning 99.87% of the US does not have this virus at the present moment.
The numbers you provided do not lead to the conclusion that 99.87% of the US does not have the virus. They lead to the conclusion that 99.87% of US is not confirmed to have the virus. That’s a pretty important distinction. One of the big problems is we don’t know how many people have it (or have had it).
 
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The numbers you provided do not lead to the conclusion that 99.87% of the US does not have the virus. They lead to the conclusion that 98.87% of US is not confirmed to have the virus. That’s a pretty important distinction. One of the big problems is we don’t know how many people have it (or have had it).

Based on the rate of hospitalizations recently and how quickly people got sick, it is very unlikely the virus was here in a significant way before march. We can also extrapolate data from other countries as well to help support that.

Given that we are only primarily testing symptomatic people around this area, there is probably a relatively large amount of people in NJ / NY who have had it without symptoms which could easily double the amount of cases in the area once we get around to testing who has had the virus.

I do think / am hopeful that the steps we took will significantly alter the course enough to where people will think we went overboard in our response. That's fine by me. I'll still argue that they are wrong, but I am sure as hell glad we took these steps and aren't arguing that we didn't do enough.
 
I understand the sentiment of the idea here, but presented this way you can also just read it as "just believe nothing on the internet" which I know is not your point, but should be careful to be avoided. We literally have access to the conglomeration of global knowledge, and it isn't that difficult to pick out which seem reputable and which don't.
I think you need to read any and every piece of information out there with caution. Big business and our government can push a narrative very strongly. JFK was killed by a bullet that went in 25 different directions with the magic bullet theory. How likely is that? Our government has been pushing a food pyramid that continues to make the country bigger and more unhealthy by the second. Imagine what would happen to the food industry if the narrative was eat more carrots and celery. That makes a ton of sense, but they can easily sell to an amateur have a reduced fat granola bar without telling that consumer there’s 10 times the daily sugar recommendation in that one granola bar alone. And they’ll back and pay “independent science” to come up with the conclusions they want to hear. So while something sounds good like reduced fat it’s many times a diversion from the real truth. So to the average person that sounds good. So it’s not always easy to say just because it sounds good, it is good. From my amateur knowledge on the subject there was once feet of ice covering NY, today there’s not, global warming is real. The garbage that’s put out for public consumption most likely should be read with a great deal of caution.
 
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1) For your pedantry, imagine I have edited my previous mentions of it to "the model that the white house has been quoting in its frequent addresses that make up most of the nation's general information on the topic." even though that is long-winded enough to be understandably truncated.

2) It does not take rocket science to understand how a virus which causes extensive lung fibrosis will worsen respiratory problems in smokers, people who have had pneumonia, those with asthma, etc.

3) I really don't think it's that far fetched to say that when you have a currently incurable, non-vaccinatable virus in your system when you die of illness, that that virus contributed. All flus that stress the respiratory system put immense stress on the body as a whole, it's central to your bodily functions. You wouldn't say someone with untreated TB or HIV who dies of illness wasn't also killed by that disease straining their body and immune system.

4) I'm seizing on the highest-profile, most reputable names here. Especially on something so large scale and catastrophic, I'm sure you can find someone claiming it would be this bad much earlier being labeled a doomsayer, and someone claiming it's nothing at all being labeled a denier. This is such a means-nothing point it really begins to question if you're arguing in good faith or just trying to "GOTCHA" things for the sake of being contrarian. Who would you say is a higher profile, more reputable source of health-related information in the US right now?

5) Your conspiracy theorist is showing. You're telling me that politicians would willingly tank the national economy and stock market, hurting themselves and their donors far more in sheer magnitude of wealth lost than the rest of us, all the while printing money in the form of extra stimulus and unemployment payment that goes directly against that motive as well?

6) and you don't know the sun will rise tomorrow, except that you've observed the same exact pattern before and so you count on it. Influenzas with lipid-based coatings that falter in heat experience resurgence in the fall and winter. It takes more than 3-4 months for an infectious disease to run its course when you can be exposed, not develop symptoms for 14 days, experience it for 1-2 weeks, and shed the disease all that time from first exposure while also shedding the disease up to a week after recovery. The math simply does not check out that it would run its course that quickly.

2) smoking and asthma are not viruses or bacteria.

3) We're talking about direct cause of death here. If the virus isn't the direct cause, it shouldn't be reported as such.

4) It's certainly possible that Fauci is overstating things. It's possible that he is scaring people in order to achieve compliance with his recommendations. I believe he is a good man, but nobody can say for sure whether we understand his motives.

5) Politicians will always be fine. They are the 1%. Most politicians run for elected office to enrich themselves and obtain power, not for the public good. There are still a few of them out there (with good intentions to work for the public), but the system rewards people who have money and want to make a career out of it to further enrich themselves. When was the last time a person with modest wealth ran for a major office, worked for the public good and didn't enrich themselves in the process? This is a power grab under the guise of public safety/health. Government exploits a crisis for its benefit better than any entity. They will use this as an excuse for more legislation and actions that limit personal freedom when this virus passes. Just watch. They did the same after 9/11 and other incidents throughout history.

6) There may be a small resurgence, but we're talking 6-7 months from now. That's plenty of time to run its course, especially when we are effectively snuffing it out as we speak.
 
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2) smoking and asthma are not viruses or bacteria.

Go back and re-read his original post. He said "and that as a result of the way it interacts with other respiratory diseases"
He had it right.

3) We're talking about direct cause of death here. If the virus isn't the direct cause, it shouldn't be reported as such.

That seems pretty silly. If someone is living with a disease and the virus causes them to take a turn... it was the virus that killed them.
Like if the same person got the flu which caused them to take a turn, it would have been the flu that killed them.
 
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Go back and re-read his original post. He said "and that as a result of the way it interacts with other respiratory diseases"
He had it right.



That seems pretty silly. If someone is living with a disease and the virus causes them to take a turn... it was the virus that killed them.
Like if the same person got the flu which caused them to take a turn, it would have been the flu that killed them.

Smoking is not a disease.
 
Believe what you want.

lol... come on dude. You misunderstood what he wrote. It was a mistake. No reason to keep the argument going.

and that as a result of the way it interacts with other respiratory diseases

This virus interacts with other respiratory viruses? That is news to me. Please explain.

t does not take rocket science to understand how a virus which causes extensive lung fibrosis will worsen respiratory problems in smokers, people who have had pneumonia, those with asthma, etc.

smoking and asthma are not viruses or bacteria.
 
Sweden is handling this in an interesting way. This is essentially where I am at. I do not think a higher infection/death rate justifies restrictions on civil liberties and the freedom of everyone, not to mention a complete halting of the economy.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

Sweden is now about where we were on Match 17th.

Their citizens have the benefit of watching what is happening around the world since it spread there later, so hopefully they take the necessary precautions... but they could be a week or two away from a lockdown as well if they don't take it seriously enough.
 
lol... come on dude. You misunderstood what he wrote. It was a mistake. No reason to keep the argument going.

It's possible he edited his post after I responded. Let it go, "dude."
 
Except of course that his post would say "last edited" .... smh

This website doesn't always say that anymore. I have edited many posts, sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.
 
I haven’t edited anything ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I have my evidence that you’re just being contrarian

You can believe what you want. I have always been strong against government intrusion into personal lives.
 
I think you need to read any and every piece of information out there with caution. Big business and our government can push a narrative very strongly. JFK was killed by a bullet that went in 25 different directions with the magic bullet theory. How likely is that? Our government has been pushing a food pyramid that continues to make the country bigger and more unhealthy by the second. Imagine what would happen to the food industry if the narrative was eat more carrots and celery. That makes a ton of sense, but they can easily sell to an amateur have a reduced fat granola bar without telling that consumer there’s 10 times the daily sugar recommendation in that one granola bar alone. And they’ll back and pay “independent science” to come up with the conclusions they want to hear. So while something sounds good like reduced fat it’s many times a diversion from the real truth. So to the average person that sounds good. So it’s not always easy to say just because it sounds good, it is good. From my amateur knowledge on the subject there was once feet of ice covering NY, today there’s not, global warming is real. The garbage that’s put out for public consumption most likely should be read with a great deal of caution.

Have I told you about the food pyramid?!
 
If you think COVID-19, after the massive loss of life already caused and projected, is a hoax, you’re in the same category as climate change deniers, moon landing deniers, flat-earthers, etc. and absolutely do not deserve the breath required to correct your lunacy.

I can’t fathom how people so close to a university (who I assume attended and got some kind of education?) can come to such stubbornly ignorant conclusions

No one thinks here it's a hoax. A government overreach and freedoms we will never get back? That's certainly the case
 
The white house model for total deaths is based off of data they've collected so far on CONFIRMED coronavirus cases and deaths, which ignores the fact that testing is still extraordinarily limited, didn't begin until the virus was already spreading quickly throughout several of our largest population centers, and that as a result of the way it interacts with other respiratory diseases, there are currently and will continue to be a slew of deaths caused by COVID-19 that are never counted as due to the disease because they died without receiving testing, and also before some of the additional symptoms that sets COVID-19 apart were known. It is the norm for hospitals throughout the US to not even test symptomatic patients for the virus unless the patient is severely, life-threateningly ill.

On April 1st, roughly a week ago, 100,000-240,000 deaths were projected by Fauci, who is not a media outlet and has no stake or benefit in sensationalizing. Also worth noting is that the white house online model for 60,000 deaths assumes that EVERY citizen practices proper social distancing to the T. You can look in any town in the US and see that that's not the case. Finally, it's worth noting that the earliest a vaccine could be available according to the FDA would be summer of 2021, and as we have seen with many respiratory flus before, there will be a resurgence in the coming fall as temperatures decrease again from the summer, and unless we are all still on lockdown when that occurs, it will lead to another slightly smaller wave of additional cases.

What are you saying? Vaccine was available in
December of 2020
 
To expand on this, it seems as if you have your facts incorrect. I stated on the free board that over 99% of Americans do not have this virus. That is why I asked you if you knew the US population.

There are 327.2 million people in the US per a basic google search. Announced cases are currently around 452,000. That is 0.13% of the population, meaning 99.87% of the US does not have this virus at the present moment.

You also said that 100-200,000 people are going to die of this. That is not true. I suggest you view this model, which estimates a little over 60,000 people will die in the US of this virus: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america That is far less than the number you provided.

Believe in the science. Believe in the facts. Don't listen to the hysteria constantly running on cable news.

#facts #science
??? there have been 735,000 deaths from covid. maybe there are 425,000 people that have covid currently but given the unknown nature of this virus i dont want to catch it ever. daily occurences dont show how many people in this country have had covid which is about 40 million. thats 12.5% of the population that has had covid. lets be realistic here.
 
??? there have been 735,000 deaths from covid. maybe there are 425,000 people that have covid currently but given the unknown nature of this virus i dont want to catch it ever. daily occurences dont show how many people in this country have had covid which is about 40 million. thats 12.5% of the population that has had covid. lets be realistic here.

Check the date buddy.
 
Yes, but you were responding to a post from April of 2020. It is September of 2021 now.
but the stats would have been much much worse at that time, relative to the timeline.

not sure how i responded to something that fae back tho
 
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