Georgia opening up
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
Good for Georgia. Others should follow suit, especially in lesser effected areas.
Here in NJ, I think somewhere between May 4 and May 15 would be reasonable and expected. Anything after that and you know it's politically driven by Murphy and his tyrannical cohorts.
Here in NJ, I think somewhere between May 4 and May 15 would be reasonable and expected. Anything after that and you know it's politically driven by Murphy and his tyrannical cohorts.
Shu09 say NJ shore community loses memorial day weekend, do you see a lot of traffic july 4th holiday?
Seems a little soon for Georgia but that day of reckoning should be approaching for all others soon.
Wasn’t that the same Governor who only last week or week before realized asymptomatic carriers could spread the disease?
They’ll be an interesting test case to determine if they were underreported by the dearth of testing and how the virus behaves.
They’ll be an interesting test case to determine if they were underreported by the dearth of testing and how the virus behaves.
Yes it was. One of the things I have been trying to track is the positive test ratio. Ours, as you know, is 49% which leads the world. The gold standard is 3% (South Korea) but 10% implies control of the virus and 20% implies lack of control. (I apologize, I can't find the source right now but if I find it later I will add it.)
Georgia is at 23% which is not a great number at all. As a point of comparison, neighboring South Carolina is at 11%. Opening up states is a combination of objectivity and subjectivity but in my opinion, Georgia is taking a risk.
Seems a bit early to me, but they're entitled to do this. Political careers will be made or broken. There's no halfway with this situation.
New hospitalizations in GA seem to have been slowing down which is great news. I think that is probably the most important metric. Unfortunately it is going to take a few weeks before we know if it was too soon to open there.
We have the first mover though. Other states will follow. Some will be more ready than others.
Promising signs in NJ on new hospitalizations as well.
Maybe Atlanta area........Florida steals Georgia's water, and it will steal any ventilators as well. Florida is about to open up too, and they will blow Georgia away in getting people sick. This will be interesting to watch. I sure as hell will stay hunkered down like this is a Cat 5 hurricane.
Plenty of hospital beds in GA: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia
Same with FL: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
I am sorry you are terrified of this (the media and governors have done this to many people). There really isn't the need to hunker down. Just take common sense precautions in your daily life.
Same with FL: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
I am sorry you are terrified of this (the media and governors have done this to many people). There really isn't the need to hunker down. Just take common sense precautions in your daily life.
Three of the largest systems in NE Pa are reporting that positive cases are down and admissions are stabilizing. Two are scheduling elective surgeries as early as next week and the other June 1. Looks like PA, outside of a few counties has dodged the bullet.
There are real risks to a lot of people especially if you have people close to you who would be particularly vulnerable.
I'm not opposed to your timeline for NJ. I think we can get there, but we should only do so if we are fairly confident that the plan to go forward will avoid having to do this all over again. Coming out of this without negative consequences (potentially really bad consequences) means that we will be able to identify cases very early on.
Worth a read.
https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/ce...maptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf
"COVID-19 IS A PROFOUND THREAT TO OUR DEMOCRACY, in certain respects comparable to the Great Depression and requiring levels of public-private coordination last seen in World War II. As ever, the greatest bulwark of democracy is us. What we do together—for one another and, even more, with one another—to fight this terrible disease, protect human life, secure our institutions, and prevent the destruction of our economy will determine whether free societies prove resilient in the face of existential emergency. What we need to do is much bigger than most people realize. We need to deliver 5 million tests per day to deliver a safe social reopening."
It sure is a threat to our democracy (but remember, we're a republic)! Look at all the power grabs going on around the various states. Elizabeth using drones to spy on people not following guidelines.
Much like public policy cannot solve every problem, these policies cannot prevent every death. This is the fatal flaw in these politicians. They think they can save everyone. They are delusional and they're ruining a lot more lives of people who are innocent bystanders rather than the actual number of people who die from the virus.
Much like public policy cannot solve every problem, these policies cannot prevent every death. This is the fatal flaw in these politicians. They think they can save everyone. They are delusional and they're ruining a lot more lives of people who are innocent bystanders rather than the actual number of people who die from the virus.
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And this from a New Yorker.
I too am from New York (Brooklyn) and now live away. There is evidence that supports his stereotype.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/20/...ths-were-in-montana-would-new-york-shut-down/
I too am from New York (Brooklyn) and now live away. There is evidence that supports his stereotype.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/20/...ths-were-in-montana-would-new-york-shut-down/
It's not about preventing every death. We need a way to control the pandemic and drop the potential to an acceptable threshold.
Can’t get this wrong.
It's already at an acceptable threshold. We could lose even more people and it would still be acceptable.
Humans can't prevent every bad thing from happening in this world. Some politicians like Phil Murphy think they can, not realizing they are destroying more lives than they are saving.
If 22.5k people in Montana from a virus that is spreading across the country, threatening millions of lives. I do think New York would shut down.
Maybe I’m wrong.
... but South Dakota should have down for the people of South Dakota. Nothing to do with New York other than getting to see it play out there first.
Exactly. The stated reason for the shutdown was to not overwhelm the healthcare system with all these patients seeking treatment. That is a fair and defensible position, especially for a novel virus spreading quickly.
Now the politicians are moving the goalposts. Talking about theoretical second surges and "saving lives." Notice how overwhelming the healthcare system is no longer a talking point? That's because they aren't overwhelmed.
Newsflash: people ARE going to get sick. People ARE going to die. This is because China let the toothpaste out of the tube with its carelessness. We can't shut down everything because of an unfortunate situation that we had nothing to do with. People get sick every day from various things. People die every day from various causes. So long as the hospitals are not overwhelmed by a surge, there is no reason to be shut down and destroy even more livelihoods for something that we can't prevent.
Agree for the most part, but are we at a point with testing where we can identify cases before symptoms?
When we started talking about this, you said we wouldn’t see an outbreak here because we are really good at early detection.
we weren’t good at it. Are we ready now? We might be, but I would still opt to move forward when we could see massive amounts of testing available.
Zero.
But 60,000 in a country of 327 million is a drop in the bucket. Same with 6,000 in a state with 9 million people.
Over 7,000 people die in America every single day from all kinds of things. It's sad. But we move on for bettering the lives of those of us who are still around.
Shu09 is.
”We could lose even more people and it would still be acceptable.”
I’m just asking for context. Another 10k? 50k? 100k?
AT what point does in become “not acceptable”
Acceptable and comfortable have two vastly different meanings. But there you go again, twisting someone's words on this board.
It’s your point your making. That “even more people” would be acceptable... all I am asking for is context as to what that means.
What is the number of deaths that is acceptable to you?
I’m not trying to twist anything. I’m trying to understand the context.
As I said, I'm comfortable with zero deaths. Nobody in their right mind would be comfortable with anyone dying.
Acceptable is different, given the situation that we face because of China's recklessness. This is a war, the politicians say. Well, wars have casualties. I would say something under 100,000 would be acceptable. We will come in well under that according to most models. 100,000 is 0.03% of the US population.
I don’t recall making a comment or having a position on early detection. Maybe I can’t remember the context you are referring.
If we want testing us the means to reopen the economy, it needs to be mandatory. That’s going to be a civil liberties question that needs to be answered. What good is testing if you are asymptomatic, carrying the virus and refuse to test.
Ok. Thank you.
There is some modeling that suggests it could grow to well over 100k (possibly double) if stay at home orders are lifted. (Other factors as well)
The keys are testing (as it has always been) and people taking it seriously. I do feel we are close, I just want the plan to be in place on how we will prevent this from happening again.
We can control it well enough with millions of voluntary testing. Doesn’t have to be 100%. Would be great if we could, but it’s not going to happen.
When there is a plan in place where the modeling meets your goal that ensures less than 100k deaths. Ideally much less, but 100k being towards the high range.
I think we are close, and I would guess the 2nd or 3rd week of May.
But you said...
“Here in NJ, I think somewhere between May 4 and May 15 would be reasonable and expected. “
I’m agreeing with you and you’re taking an issue with the fact that I think that’s close to now?
Yes, I suggested the first or second week of May. You said second or third, a full week behind me.
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