Trump Claims His Pre-Pandemic Economy Was ‘The Best.’ The Numbers Say Otherwise.
Donald Trump often claims the U.S. economy before COVID was the best ever. But a variety of measures show it’s actually better now.
Huff Post on Economy Numbers
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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It is not better now. Have you been to McDonald's? Looked at Home Insurance or Car Insurance costs? The economy being better now than under Trump is a certain kind of stupid that should qualify someone for disability.Trump Claims His Pre-Pandemic Economy Was ‘The Best.’ The Numbers Say Otherwise.
Donald Trump often claims the U.S. economy before COVID was the best ever. But a variety of measures show it’s actually better now.www.huffpost.com
Here's McDonald's CEO that spelled it out after they got rightfully bashed for their prices having skyrocketed, highlighed by the $18 Darien rest stop #1 Big Mac meal cost. Bottom line is he laid it out without saying it- the economy and the climate we're in has made it worse and they're technically making less profit by % it appears despite costs.
Providing meaningful value to our fans, with a side of facts
The following is an open letter from Joe Erlinger, President of McDonald’s USA
corporate.mcdonalds.com
So your argument is forget all the data points. Forget that your 401 k is much better (Remember that line Trump used to use), Forget that the Dow is over 40,000, forget that unemployment is low, forget wages are up, GDP was 2.8% last quarter. Forget all that. The Big Mac is more expensive. lol.It is not better now. Have you been to McDonald's? Looked at Home Insurance or Car Insurance costs? The economy being better now than under Trump is a certain kind of stupid that should qualify someone for disability.
Here's McDonald's CEO that spelled it out after they got rightfully bashed for their prices having skyrocketed, highlighed by the $18 Darien rest stop #1 Big Mac meal cost. Bottom line is he laid it out without saying it- the economy and the climate we're in has made it worse and they're technically making less profit by % it appears despite costs.
Providing meaningful value to our fans, with a side of facts
The following is an open letter from Joe Erlinger, President of McDonald’s USA
Listen, we all know there was inflation. But that was inevitable due to CoVid. There was/is worldwide inflation. But the US has it under control now. But once prices go up, they are not going to return to those levels no matter who is in the White House.
I think the biggest problem people have is the cost of housing and rents. This has nothing to do with the government. It does have something to do with lack of housing. It does have something to do with the very low interest rates are gone and those people with those low interest rates are not moving. This contributes to lack of inventory. Also corporations are buying up single family homes to rent them out are also contributing to the lack of houses for sale. This is going to be an issue. Even if rates come down to 4.5-5% interest rates, there will be a shortage of homes.
This increase of expenses for renting and owning homes is what the real pain people are feeling because it costs a lot. This exacerbates the rise in food prices. Gas was an issue but prices are under $3.20 here in NJ at the present time.
Yea here's some Data: Fairer to compare gas prices January 2020 (pre-Covid) to March 2024.
Gas was $2.64 in January, 2020, $3.54 for March 2024, making the price 34% higher.
No one cares if their 401K is X when snickers at Walmart are now $2.50 and it's now a bad idea to take a family of 2-3 kids to McDonalds because it costs so much.
Wages might be up, except not relative to how much things cost. The average american has way less spending power than they did before. We (the non-delusional) all feel that. The Data says that. Your 401K celebration is like going to the postgame press conference saying well we won the 4th Quarter of a game they got blown out in, and that's the lead line the SID writes in the postgame recap.
finance.yahoo.com
As the McDonald's CEO said as he gritted his teeth without calling out the Democrats....our costs have gone up 23% in the last 4 years. Our prices have gone up 21% on average. They are making slightly less money.
To put into layman's terms, the 401k means shit, if the costs of goods and services is going up at a higher rate than the 401K. You may have more physical money, but you have less buying power.
SHU could add 2 more scholarships and go to 15 in WBB, but without NIL, they have zero buying power. The scholarship no longer completes the transaction of a player.
The unemployment and jobs numbers were conveniently cooked up and forced to be Revised because they were SO way off. Is this incompetence, or cooking the books? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...-in-latest-government-revision-144414848.html
On home prices- Get ready for Democrats/welfare class/inner city to all cry and scream about home prices as their new rally cry should Trump be reelected, it'll be like their new Walk-up music, they'll even come up with a new Flag to wave around. What you said above about inventory is all accurate. Those that will be crying were all silent when Govt and Democrats kept printing $ after taking office, allowed no evictions to take place for nearly 3 years in Democrat cities (ask landlords- I am one which caused higher market rate rents and extremely careful vetting of tenants and asking for 2-3 months security deposits), handout money like it's monopoly to Illegals (which therefore blow up property taxes) and blew up Inflation. A high of 9% by their cooked up numbers in deep into 2021.
All of that was accepted to be happening, but it will be turned into a new chant should Trump be re-elected. But that will be fraudulent since they all witnessed it happen.
What will occur from this is what I've called a new class of PR- Permanent Renters. I believe if you do not own your own home today/as of about 2023...you're 15-20% less likely to ever own your own home/apartment than you were Pre-Pandemic. The math tells me so.
Under control now? It's basically 2.7% on their numbers, and we know the inflation on the things that really matter- housing-rent-food-insurance is in a different stratosphere. Again, no one cares if TVs and Vineyard Vines polos are only rising 2.7%. 2.7% is still above the average rate of 2%. This is nothing to brag about.
The Rents as CernJ accurately stated are all pressing higher (as they should-property taxes raised in NYC for ex specifically for 5 billion dollars spent on illegals + insurance costs), Interest rates will remain very high for multiple years, meaning that the average person is basically the horse with a carrot in front of him but many of them never catch up and get the carrot.
Their rate of savings is lower (higher rent) and overall home purchase prices are not going down, and a sub-5% mortgage is still many years away so theyre going to be paying 7+%. All that equals a number that creates the Permanent Renter. Many of them just dont know it yet.
Out of my tenants, I have several that I know will never be able to leave my unit unless a life-changing event happens like major job promotion, family money etc. They are saving, but they are not winning.
Along the way I'm expecting the crying/Democrat class to all demonize those that have or will have parents/family money that helps in the down payment as a new target. Victimhood will have a new recruiting class.
Why do you think Kamala Harris floated a wet dream $25,000 credit for anyone that wants to buy a new home?? Total bait and switch. Home prices would just go up further, but gets the vote, and sorry come again (Apu from Simpsons).
Gas was $2.64 in January, 2020, $3.54 for March 2024, making the price 34% higher.
No one cares if their 401K is X when snickers at Walmart are now $2.50 and it's now a bad idea to take a family of 2-3 kids to McDonalds because it costs so much.
Wages might be up, except not relative to how much things cost. The average american has way less spending power than they did before. We (the non-delusional) all feel that. The Data says that. Your 401K celebration is like going to the postgame press conference saying well we won the 4th Quarter of a game they got blown out in, and that's the lead line the SID writes in the postgame recap.
The Average American Family Has Lost $7K in Spending Power, Thanks to Inflation
Over the last few years, rising inflation has hurt Americans' purchasing power because wages usually couldn't keep up with the prices. As the Federal Reserve increased interest rates several times to...
Americans may struggle for another five years as buying power shrinks more, report says
Americans' salaries aren't likely to catch up to inflation any time soon, research shows. Most workers will see their buying power erode further.
www.usatoday.com
As the McDonald's CEO said as he gritted his teeth without calling out the Democrats....our costs have gone up 23% in the last 4 years. Our prices have gone up 21% on average. They are making slightly less money.
To put into layman's terms, the 401k means shit, if the costs of goods and services is going up at a higher rate than the 401K. You may have more physical money, but you have less buying power.
SHU could add 2 more scholarships and go to 15 in WBB, but without NIL, they have zero buying power. The scholarship no longer completes the transaction of a player.
The unemployment and jobs numbers were conveniently cooked up and forced to be Revised because they were SO way off. Is this incompetence, or cooking the books? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...-in-latest-government-revision-144414848.html
On home prices- Get ready for Democrats/welfare class/inner city to all cry and scream about home prices as their new rally cry should Trump be reelected, it'll be like their new Walk-up music, they'll even come up with a new Flag to wave around. What you said above about inventory is all accurate. Those that will be crying were all silent when Govt and Democrats kept printing $ after taking office, allowed no evictions to take place for nearly 3 years in Democrat cities (ask landlords- I am one which caused higher market rate rents and extremely careful vetting of tenants and asking for 2-3 months security deposits), handout money like it's monopoly to Illegals (which therefore blow up property taxes) and blew up Inflation. A high of 9% by their cooked up numbers in deep into 2021.
All of that was accepted to be happening, but it will be turned into a new chant should Trump be re-elected. But that will be fraudulent since they all witnessed it happen.
What will occur from this is what I've called a new class of PR- Permanent Renters. I believe if you do not own your own home today/as of about 2023...you're 15-20% less likely to ever own your own home/apartment than you were Pre-Pandemic. The math tells me so.
Under control now? It's basically 2.7% on their numbers, and we know the inflation on the things that really matter- housing-rent-food-insurance is in a different stratosphere. Again, no one cares if TVs and Vineyard Vines polos are only rising 2.7%. 2.7% is still above the average rate of 2%. This is nothing to brag about.
The Rents as CernJ accurately stated are all pressing higher (as they should-property taxes raised in NYC for ex specifically for 5 billion dollars spent on illegals + insurance costs), Interest rates will remain very high for multiple years, meaning that the average person is basically the horse with a carrot in front of him but many of them never catch up and get the carrot.
Their rate of savings is lower (higher rent) and overall home purchase prices are not going down, and a sub-5% mortgage is still many years away so theyre going to be paying 7+%. All that equals a number that creates the Permanent Renter. Many of them just dont know it yet.
Out of my tenants, I have several that I know will never be able to leave my unit unless a life-changing event happens like major job promotion, family money etc. They are saving, but they are not winning.
Along the way I'm expecting the crying/Democrat class to all demonize those that have or will have parents/family money that helps in the down payment as a new target. Victimhood will have a new recruiting class.
Why do you think Kamala Harris floated a wet dream $25,000 credit for anyone that wants to buy a new home?? Total bait and switch. Home prices would just go up further, but gets the vote, and sorry come again (Apu from Simpsons).
All good points about the housing issue, and I don't think a $25,000 or $50,000 first time home buyer credit is going to do anything other than result in steady or increased prices. And, on top of that, many of the same higher W-2 earners who are asked to pay for everything else are going to pay for that too.
The tax breaks for developers may help with the housing shortage, but the PE firms, hedge funds and other big corporations buying up massive quantities of single family homes is an issue and I'm not sure how you combat that frankly. You can't take away property someone already owns. And whatever she says on the campaign I don't see Harris going after those companies with real legislation on this issue unless none of them is part of the donor base.
This is not true at all. The markets, and therefore your 401K, did better under Trump (and that includes the pandemic!!):
DOW
Trump
Jan 19, 2017 = 19,732.40
Jan 19, 2021 = 30,930.52
56.75% Increase
Biden
Jan 19, 2021 = 30,930.52
Aug 21, 2024 = 40,890.49
32.20% Increase
NASDAQ
Trump
Jan 19, 2017 = 5,540.08
Jan 19, 2021 = 13,197.18
138.21% Increase
Biden
Jan 19, 2021 = 13,197.18
Aug 21, 2024 = 17,918.99
35.78% Increase
Here's another massive problem. The costs to build a regular 3 BR 1 bath home for the average American family is now also outrageous (see California in particular). Building supplies, labor, permit, never been higher, massive jumps across the board. Now for these builders to make profit, they've got to sell the house at a certain number, it's like 430k now. It was just like 280k 4 years ago. Thus, the builders largely stopped building a lot of houses, or become extremely selective in areas, and when they do, there are the prices. Starter homes are now 430k on average in the USA.
In my opinion, a very correctable shortcut towards increasing the housing inventory exists in houses that already exist.
Zombie Houses
1- Deadbeats Squatters, delinquents, non-rent payers.
I am deep in the process of closing on a Foreclosure auction condo. Previous "owners" had not paid mortgage for 12 years- since 2012, and 4 years of no HOA. This only reached foreclosure in 2022. The system keeps giving chance after chance, and then COVID puts a freeze on it, followed by more chances. Just one example of thousands that exist in the US.
Imagine if the average timeline of 7 years of non-payment to foreclosure closing got trimmed, or evictions moved at a legitimate pace. We're talking hundreds of thousands more available properties in the pipeline which brings down prices.
Bottom line is the law must be changed big time. Politicians must want to change it (Liberal states), Towns/Counties must want to change it, Banks must want to.
The Banks are making so much $ on our mortgage interest that the 1-2% of deadbeats is just baked into their numbers, and we are all bankrolling deadbeats and paying more because of this. They know they'll have a % of deadbeats, so they must cover it via raising $ off real people like anything else.
Notice the new Florida law against Squatters- tremendous job DeSantis- that gets Squatters out MUCH sooner + goes after the co-conspirator like a fake real estate agent that gave the squatter a fake lease to use to cover themselves. It's got teeth and will be a cleanup. Hope it inspires many other states to go at this hard with no mercy. Will be fascinated to hear about this in 2 years from realtors if it's made an impact on the local Real estate market.
Should this be drastically sped up, you have probably an extra 100,000 on the market each year. That's a difference maker.
2- Condemned houses Every town has some houses that are a disaster of some kind. Decrepit, abandoned, tied up in decades of probate, legal issues, God knows what. If a high % of these houses became available, the numbers improve. Towns have to push the courts, the courts have to push the banks, and the politicians have to pass some laws or change them, just like in the deadbeats category. I know in my town there is a Ghost-like house that is in a nice spot that someone would jump on. Could there be 3,000 houses like this in NJ alone? Probably. Imagine the housing market if 2k of those got freed up.
I'm a believer that there is physically enough housing that already exists. Between the warehoused apartments in NYC and these 2 scenarios it's a controllable traffic jam that can be a solution.
Why let facts get in the way of a narrative?
I know cern is a smart guy, but the old adage "It's the economy, stupid" doesn't refer to 401 K or the Dow. Milk, eggs, gas, now you're talking to the electorate.
It will be interesting to see what happens to those DOW/NASDAQ numbers when Kamala takes office.
Interesting that the Dow went up over 15% after Biden won the election in 2020. Nov 2, 2020, Dow is at 26,691. Jan 19, 2021 it’s at 30,930. Pretty big leap after Trump had lost. And the country and markets feel that stability has been restored.
11/2/2020. Nasdaq at 11,205
1/19/2020 Nasdaq at 13,197.
That increase has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with Biden’s election. Look at it on a graph it really jumps out at you.
Markets went up 8% from Trump's election day to inauguration day. Pretty meaningless no, when we have lengthier data to go on??
Not really. Over 15% in such a short period of time is a tremendous tell. It also leads to a skewed reading of the market under Trump. I think the markets have done well under both presidents. But this BS narrative that Trump is better at the economy is just false.
15% vs. 8% is pretty meaningless given the longer term trend.
Markets are just one piece of the economy. You brought up the DOW and 401K's using incorrect info.
Jobs, inflation, wages, etc. also make up the economy. Trump did better when you consider all of the facts:
Did Biden Or Trump Create More Jobs? Here Are The Facts.
It’s been a remarkably strong stretch for the U.S. economy under both presidents.
www.forbes.com
Besides inflation even when you take out Covid, Biden does better on wage growth and unemployment. Inflation certainly went higher under Biden but that was going to be high no matter who the President was.15% vs. 8% is pretty meaningless given the longer term trend.
Markets are just one piece of the economy. You brought up the DOW and 401K's using incorrect info.
Jobs, inflation, wages, etc. also make up the economy. Trump did better when you consider all of the facts:
Did Biden Or Trump Create More Jobs? Here Are The Facts.
It’s been a remarkably strong stretch for the U.S. economy under both presidents.
However, Biden did not try manipulate the economy and let the market work itself out. He did not pressure the Fed. Due to that, we have inflation under control without a recession or high unemployment. This is pretty remarkable. Look on how many people calling for a recession on this board. I think you may have been one of the posters to do so. That never materialized. Despite the great job done by Jay Powell, Trump will fire him. That is not for the good of the country.
By the way, doubling the rate is always a big deal.
You can’t just take out inflation when discussing wage growth. Take out the pandemic and Trump clearly outperformed Biden on the economy.
I never called for a recession, I don’t do that sort of stuff, I’m not an economist, I’m a fact-based CFO. And there were 2 straight quarters of negative growth under Biden, typically a recession except in this politically charged atmosphere.
Glad to see you now acknowledge Trump and what the markets did, almost twice the rate of gain as under Biden.
cern's TDS has flared up again. Incapable of saying even just a single good thing about him or his record.
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