huge, huge win. I did a breakdown of what your projections were as of last week per sagarin, and you had a realistic path to dancing. Just had to win the games you were favored, and only needed to flip the chalk once. And the good thing was the games with larger spreads, meaning the games more likely to hold true, were games the hall is projected to win, while the closer games you were projected to lose (the closer games are less reliable and easier to go against the spread). This was one of the games you could lose.
Sagarin actually has you underdogs against butler too. Win your next three and you guys are golden. That means you would have gone against Sagarin twice when you only needed to do so once to dance.
I am rooting hard for your guys to dance this year, not so much for this year, but for the next two years. Get in this year, see what happens (hey, you never know), but the big thing is that you would likely start next year ranked in the top 20 with a good shot at being a top ten team at points of the season. And by 2018, national title conversation (which could even sneak up next year)
It took Willard some time, but he has turned the corner I think. He's not perfect, but yesterday was such a gutsy effort against a team that just rolled you guys at the Rock. If Willard were a bad coach, I don't think he would have been able to get it done yesterday. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come.
I actually think this win is just as big as the Wichita and providence wins in terms of you guys dancing. It's huge.
Anyway, here is the breakdown I referenced above (DePaul was actually only 7 and the butler game this week is more like 1.5 or 2)
Sagarin actually has you underdogs against butler too. Win your next three and you guys are golden. That means you would have gone against Sagarin twice when you only needed to do so once to dance.
I am rooting hard for your guys to dance this year, not so much for this year, but for the next two years. Get in this year, see what happens (hey, you never know), but the big thing is that you would likely start next year ranked in the top 20 with a good shot at being a top ten team at points of the season. And by 2018, national title conversation (which could even sneak up next year)
It took Willard some time, but he has turned the corner I think. He's not perfect, but yesterday was such a gutsy effort against a team that just rolled you guys at the Rock. If Willard were a bad coach, I don't think he would have been able to get it done yesterday. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come.
I actually think this win is just as big as the Wichita and providence wins in terms of you guys dancing. It's huge.
Anyway, here is the breakdown I referenced above (DePaul was actually only 7 and the butler game this week is more like 1.5 or 2)
If the spreads where set today (11 games):
v. SJU: -17.5
@ Creighton: +4
v. Marq: -8.5
v. Gtown: -4.5
v. But: +2.5
@Gtown: +4
@ SJU: -10.5
v. PC: -3.5
v. X: +2.5
@ But: +7.5
@ DePaul: -12.5
So per the chalk:
6-5 for 19-11 (9-9)
Good news from these spreads:
Comfortable margins (10 or more)(3 games)
3-0
Close games, but a decisive favorite (4.5-10 pt)(3 games)
2-1
So that's 5-1 in the games that look to have a decisive favorite. That gets you to 18-7 (8-5) in games that have a decent projected margin.
Toss up games (5)
1-4 record
These are the games that are most likely to flip against the spread. So if the chalk holds on the games with greater than 4 pt spreads, then you only need to flip the chalk on one of the four toss up games where the Hall will be underdogs. That would get you to 20-10 (10-8) and looking pretty good to dance.