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Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
One of the reasons I don't pay much attention to college basketball polls is their inherent short-term bias. This week, for instance, Virginia is certain to drop from its consensus No. 2 ranking following the weekend loss to Duke.
It almost doesn't matter to the voters that it was Virginia's first loss of the season or that it came at the hands of another strong No. 1 seed candidate. The Cavs lost, so they have to drop. That's just how it works.
Fortunately, Bracketology takes a wider view of most single-game results. And, from the "body of work" standpoint, it can and should be argued that Virginia -- as well as Kentucky, obviously -- had a sizable gap over the rest of the field heading into the weekend. Hence any loss(es) suffered by one or the other wasn't going to drop either below No. 2 overall.
So that is your answer to the most obvious question of the day: Why doesn't Virginia fall off the No. 1 seed line (or at least within the top line)? The second-most obvious question might be, why isn't Duke ahead of the Cavs?
The answer to the second question involves dispelling another frequent misunderstanding of the evaluation process. Namely, that head-to-head results carry a lot of weight. They don't and, even in this case, shouldn't, especially when greater factors are in play.
In this case, the easy differentiator is Virginia's two-game lead over Duke in the ACC. And it's not as if the Cavs have benefited from a softer league schedule to this point, as can sometimes happened. The reality is that Virginia's wins are comparable to the Blue Devils' and its one loss far less negative.
That is, until the ball goes up Monday night in Chapel Hill.
This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Sunday, Feb. 1. Rankings reflect an up-to-date seed list from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
The Bracket
The Full S-Curve
ALL CAPS: Current or projected conference leader (automatic qualifier)
1-KENTUCKY 2-VIRGINIA 3-GONZAGA 4-Duke
5-WISCONSIN 5-WISCONSIN 7-KANSAS 8-VILLANOVA
9-Iowa State 10-North Carolina 11-Louisville 12-Notre Dame
13-Utah 14-Maryland 15-West Virginia 16-VCU
17-NO. IOWA 18-Wichita St 19-Oklahoma 20-Baylor
21-Butle 22-Georgetown 23-Providence 24-Indiana
25-Ohio State 26-Arkansas 27-So. Methodist 28-Stanford
29-Texas 30-SAN DIEGO 31-Michigan 32-Georgia
33-Dayton 34-SETON HALL 35-Xavier 36-Cincinnati
37-Louisiana St 38-Miami (Fla.) 39-Iowa 40-Oklahoma St
41-Texas A&M 42-Colorado St 43-Ole Miss 44-TULSA
45-NC State 46-St. John's 47-Old Dominion 48-WOFFORD
49-IONA 50-YALE 51-MURRAY ST 52-S.F. AUSTIN
53-WM. & MARY 54-AKRON 55-N. MEXICO 56-LA.
57-VALPARAISO 58-UC IRVINE 59-S. DAKOTA ST 60-HIGH POINT
61-GA. SOUTHERN 62-N.C. CENTRAL 63-ALBANY 64-ST. FRAN. (NY)
65-SACRAMENTO 66-COLGATE 67-TEXAS SO. 68-NO. FLORIDA
The Math
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 75 percent or better) and you have 36 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 22 spots. All told we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current bubble teams.
Bubble (30 teams for 10 spots)
• In (10, in S-Curve order): 37. Louisiana State, 38. Miami (FL), 39. Iowa, 40. Oklahoma State, 41. Texas A&M, 42. Colorado State
Last four in: 43. Ole Miss, 45. NC State, 46. St. John's, 47. Old Dominion
First four out: 69. Tennessee, 70. George Washington, 71. Kansas St, 72. Davidson
Next four out: 73. Florida, 74. Purdue, 75. Temple, 76. Michigan
Conference breakdown
• ACC (7)
• Big 12 (7)
• Big East (7)
• Big Ten (6)
• SEC (6)
• American (3)
• Pac-12 (3)
• Atlantic 10 (2)
• Conference USA (2)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• Mountain West (2)
Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
One of the reasons I don't pay much attention to college basketball polls is their inherent short-term bias. This week, for instance, Virginia is certain to drop from its consensus No. 2 ranking following the weekend loss to Duke.
It almost doesn't matter to the voters that it was Virginia's first loss of the season or that it came at the hands of another strong No. 1 seed candidate. The Cavs lost, so they have to drop. That's just how it works.
Fortunately, Bracketology takes a wider view of most single-game results. And, from the "body of work" standpoint, it can and should be argued that Virginia -- as well as Kentucky, obviously -- had a sizable gap over the rest of the field heading into the weekend. Hence any loss(es) suffered by one or the other wasn't going to drop either below No. 2 overall.
So that is your answer to the most obvious question of the day: Why doesn't Virginia fall off the No. 1 seed line (or at least within the top line)? The second-most obvious question might be, why isn't Duke ahead of the Cavs?
The answer to the second question involves dispelling another frequent misunderstanding of the evaluation process. Namely, that head-to-head results carry a lot of weight. They don't and, even in this case, shouldn't, especially when greater factors are in play.
In this case, the easy differentiator is Virginia's two-game lead over Duke in the ACC. And it's not as if the Cavs have benefited from a softer league schedule to this point, as can sometimes happened. The reality is that Virginia's wins are comparable to the Blue Devils' and its one loss far less negative.
That is, until the ball goes up Monday night in Chapel Hill.
This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Sunday, Feb. 1. Rankings reflect an up-to-date seed list from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
The Bracket
The Full S-Curve
ALL CAPS: Current or projected conference leader (automatic qualifier)
1-KENTUCKY 2-VIRGINIA 3-GONZAGA 4-Duke
5-WISCONSIN 5-WISCONSIN 7-KANSAS 8-VILLANOVA
9-Iowa State 10-North Carolina 11-Louisville 12-Notre Dame
13-Utah 14-Maryland 15-West Virginia 16-VCU
17-NO. IOWA 18-Wichita St 19-Oklahoma 20-Baylor
21-Butle 22-Georgetown 23-Providence 24-Indiana
25-Ohio State 26-Arkansas 27-So. Methodist 28-Stanford
29-Texas 30-SAN DIEGO 31-Michigan 32-Georgia
33-Dayton 34-SETON HALL 35-Xavier 36-Cincinnati
37-Louisiana St 38-Miami (Fla.) 39-Iowa 40-Oklahoma St
41-Texas A&M 42-Colorado St 43-Ole Miss 44-TULSA
45-NC State 46-St. John's 47-Old Dominion 48-WOFFORD
49-IONA 50-YALE 51-MURRAY ST 52-S.F. AUSTIN
53-WM. & MARY 54-AKRON 55-N. MEXICO 56-LA.
57-VALPARAISO 58-UC IRVINE 59-S. DAKOTA ST 60-HIGH POINT
61-GA. SOUTHERN 62-N.C. CENTRAL 63-ALBANY 64-ST. FRAN. (NY)
65-SACRAMENTO 66-COLGATE 67-TEXAS SO. 68-NO. FLORIDA
The Math
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 75 percent or better) and you have 36 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 22 spots. All told we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current bubble teams.
Bubble (30 teams for 10 spots)
• In (10, in S-Curve order): 37. Louisiana State, 38. Miami (FL), 39. Iowa, 40. Oklahoma State, 41. Texas A&M, 42. Colorado State
Last four in: 43. Ole Miss, 45. NC State, 46. St. John's, 47. Old Dominion
First four out: 69. Tennessee, 70. George Washington, 71. Kansas St, 72. Davidson
Next four out: 73. Florida, 74. Purdue, 75. Temple, 76. Michigan
Conference breakdown
• ACC (7)
• Big 12 (7)
• Big East (7)
• Big Ten (6)
• SEC (6)
• American (3)
• Pac-12 (3)
• Atlantic 10 (2)
• Conference USA (2)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• Mountain West (2)
