My Field of 68 3 weeks til Selection Sunday

[NYShoreGuy]

America East 1 Stony Brook

AAC 3 Uconn, Cincy, Tulsa

A-10 5 GW, St Joes, St Bon, VCU, Dayton

ACC 7 Duke, UNC, ND, Miami, Virginia, Pitt, Cuse

A-Sun 1 NJIT

Big 12 7 Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Texas Tech

Big East 5 Nova, Prov, Xavier, SHU, Butler

Big Sky 1 Weber St

Big South 1 Winthrop

Big Ten 7 Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio St

Big West 1 Hawai'i

CAA 1 Hofstra

CUSA 1 UAB

Horizon 1 Valpo

Ivy 1 Princeton

MAAC 1 Monmouth

MAC 1 Akron

MEAC 1 Hampton

MVC 1 Wichita St

Mountain West 1 San Diego St

NEC 1 Wagner

OVC 1 Belmont

Pac-12 6 Arizona, Oregon, USC, Utah, Cal, Colorado

Patriot League 1 Boston University

SEC 4 Kentucky, TAMU, South Carolina, Florida

SoCon 1 Chattanooga

Southland 1 Stephen F. Austin

SWAC 1 Southern

Summit 1 South Dakota St

Sun Belt 1 Arkansas-Little Rock

WCC 1 Gonzaga

WAC 1 New Mexico St

* Louisville and SMU prohibited from NCAA, both would be safely in

**my last four in - Butler, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Tulsa

***my four four out - Alabama, Temple, Oregon State, Saint Mary's

 

[TomD82]

Temple is getting in from the AAC. Also no way the A10 gets 5. GW is listed as next 4 out by Lunardi and the A10 is not as strong as last year. Saint Mary's is getting in from the WCC over Gonzaga and if GU does not win the WCCT the leagues is a 1 bid league. Also the SEC is going to get a bubble team in for a total of 5.

 

[SHUBK]

I don't even think the Big East will get 5 teams in. I will be thrilled if they do, but I see 4 as more likely.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Also the SEC is going to get a bubble team in for a total of 5.

The SEC has 3 teams not on his list with a chance. Alabama has the best chance, they take on Kentucky at Rupp tonight. Vanderbilt has to go through Kentucky, Florida, and Tex A&M. And because of the Ben Simmons factor LSU is still in the mix with an RPI close to 100. LSU has 2 of their remaining 4 against Florida and Kentucky. If Florida, Texas A&M, and Kentucky take care of business the next 2 weeks, I don't see any more than 4 in from the SEC.

 

[mjs428]

I agree with most of yours except for Temple.

 

[Piratefan2009]

Bubble definitely looks soft from this list:

Cuse and Pitt near .500 record, marginal.

GW and St. Bon are marginal

Tulsa out (hopefully) but I think AAC def gets 3

Unfortunately, SHU, Prov and Butler all looking marginal

Unless Ohio State does something incredible I don't think they deserve it.

Colorado doesn't deserve it

Texas Tech yes, but not if they end up with a losing conference record. In fact, that rule should be in effect across the SEC. Vandy no way no how considering they did nothing OOC. Bama has a shot. Think Florida should be out if they go 9-9. LSU should be out unless they run the table based on OOC.

 

[HallBall10]

I can't tell if this is a prediction (predicting all future games) or who you think would be in as of today...

But if as of today...
Ohio St. doesn't have a case to be in. But with big games against Mich St., Iowa, and @ Mich St. they are a possibility.
RPI and BPI #s around 70 and 2-7 against top 100... Wisconsin RPI 44 SOS 6 8-6 against top 100 would probably make 7 for the big ten.

To date, TTech is not even close to the cut line. 6 top 50 wins 4 of those top 25 and 0 bad loses. RPI in top 25. SOS #2..avoiding a home loss tonight to TCU might secure their bid

 

[Piratefan2009]

TTech is not even close to the cut line. 6 top 50 wins 4 of those top 25 and 0 bad loses. RPI in top 25. SOS #2..avoiding a home loss tonight to TCU might secure their bid

Good point. Should have given them a second look. Hawaii and Arkansas Little Rock in their OOC. Lucky those teams are doing pretty well or they'd have bupkis to show from their NC. Opposite of what happened to us. WSU, Georgia, and Ole Miss and they all turned into poor teams.

 

[radecicco]

Good point. Should have given them a second look. Hawaii and Arkansas Little Rock in their OOC. Lucky those teams are doing pretty well or they'd have bupkis to show from their NC. Opposite of what happened to us. WSU, Georgia, and Ole Miss and they all turned into poor teams.

WSU is not a poor team. Nobody wants to face them early in the NCAAs.

 

[NittanyPirate]

Shoreguy,

Nice post. I agree with a lot. Big east will get 5. Its kind of apples and oranges but last year Big East sent 6 to NCAAs.
FIVE of those teams had at least TEN losses. I don't think its wishful thinking to assume a 10-8 conference record will earn an at-large bid.

One HUGE disagreement... Boston University from the Patriot!!??
RAY BUCKNELL!!!!!!

 

[Piratefan2009]

WSU is not a poor team. Nobody wants to face them early in the NCAAs.

I meant poorly in terms of how they have performed compared to expectations on the season. Only one good win OOC to Utah, the unexpected injury of course being partially to blame, then the lapses to worse teams in conference.

 

[Save Continental]

I don't agree with all of Lunardi's brackets/seedings, but I think where he has us now is about right (about 6 or 7 spots from the cut line). Hopefully we go on a Texas Tech like burst this week and put the bubble in our rearview. I agree with the 6 teams he has behind us in the pecking order.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[Stickboy46]

I meant poorly in terms of how they have performed compared to expectations on the season. Only one good win OOC to Utah, the unexpected injury of course being partially to blame, then the lapses to worse teams in conference.

While the UNI and ISU losses aren't "good". They aren't horrible. UNI owns wins over North Carolina and Iowa State. ISU played Maryland and Kentucky both very close at their places. Both teams had streaks of bad shooting games that cost them a decent record. Even then, they are sitting just outside the Top 100. Its not like we lost to Minnesota ...

 

[SOBO1]

I think Wichita passes the eye test. They are a good team, but at the end of the day you are what your record says you are. Their resume is not worthy of a 7 seed (per lunardi). The hall has arguably the same resume, if not better, and we are considered a bubble team (rightfully so).

 

[Stickboy46]

I think Wichita passes the eye test. They are a good team, but at the end of the day you are what your record says you are. Their resume is not worthy of a 7 seed (per lunardi). The hall has arguably the same resume, if not better, and we are considered a bubble team (rightfully so).

I agree with that. I think right now we are a 9-11 seed. If we win out, a 6-7 isn't out of the question though. WSU's resume is confusing without even factoring in the games in with Van Vleet were out.

RPI: 43
KenPom: 10 (#1 Defense)
BPI: 22
Sagarin: 19
KPI: 39
NPI: 14
Massey: 25

So really, depending on how you frame up a "resume". WSU could be anywhere from a 4-5 Seed or a 11-12 seed. The Analytical based rankings that the Selection Committee uses seems to really rank WSU high, while RPI based metrics and "quality wins" put them really low.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

I think Wichita passes the eye test. They are a good team, but at the end of the day you are what your record says you are. Their resume is not worthy of a 7 seed (per lunardi). The hall has arguably the same resume, if not better, and we are considered a bubble team (rightfully so).

The question regarding WSU are you really what your record says you are considering the WSU team since mid December has not been injured. Most of their losses came while playing with an injured roster. If 4 of our 7 losses came with guys injured early in the season, we would want the committee to overlook that.

 

[SOBO1]

Injuries should be taken into consideration, but at what point do you draw the line? At its core, seeding needs to be based on what you have accomplished. It's a slippery slope to play the "what if" game.

In my opinion these resumes are pretty darn close. Is it fair to say WSU is a 7 seed and SHU is a bubble team?

Seton Hall (19-7)
RPI 41
SOS 90
road record 6-3
record vs top 25 0-3
record vs top 50 2-4
record vs top 100 7-7
best win: @ #36 Providence
worst loss: #94 Long Beach State

WSU (20-7)
RPI 47
SOS 110
road record 8-3
record vs top 25 1-1
record vs top 50 1-5
record vs top 100 3-5
best win: #9 Utah
worst lost: #113 Illinois State, #108 Northern Iowa

 

[Stickboy46]

Injuries should be taken into consideration, but at what point do you draw the line? At its core, seeding needs to be based on what you have accomplished. It's a slippery slope to play the "what if" game.

In my opinion these resumes are pretty darn close. Is it fair to say WSU is a 7 seed and SHU is a bubble team?

Seton Hall (19-7)
RPI 41
SOS 90
road record 6-3
record vs top 25 0-3
record vs top 50 2-4
record vs top 100 7-7
best win: @ #36 Providence
worst loss: #94 Long Beach State

WSU (20-7)
RPI 47
SOS 110
road record 8-3
record vs top 25 1-1
record vs top 50 1-5
record vs top 100 3-5
best win: #9 Utah
worst lost: #113 Illinois State, #108 Northern Iowa

I completely agree. The Resume's are close. I think WSU does get help from people that consider the Analytical based rankings though as I mentioned above. WSU is 20-30 rankings higher in KenPom, BPI, NPI, and Sagarin. All of those are considered by the Committee.

Though frankly I think we all know they build the resume to fit whatever they have already decided

 

[SOBO1]

OK I'll shut up now. Lundardi just released his new bracket and he dropped WSU to an 8 seed and moved SHU up to a 9 seed. That makes sense to me. Both team's resumes are virtually identical but I would give an edge to WSU because they are the better team (eye test).

 

[Halldan1]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/240