If anyone here subscribes to "The Athletic" they have an interesting lead story today about Seton Hall, the St Johns game and the new NCAA rating system which works against the Pirates. Here is the link. https://theathletic.com/743479/2019/01/01/
"Success-against-a-tough-early-slate-has-Seton-Hall-in-position-for-a-fast-finish/"
Here is an excerpt regarding the RPI vs the new NET rating system used by the NCAA
To be sure, the Pirates have had their fair share of lucky breaks, but one thing working against the Hall this season is the shift from the RPI to the NET as the primary organizing metric for the NCAA selection committee. After the win over St. John’s, the Hall sits 22nd in the RPI, but is slotted 52nd in the NET. Only Temple (21st in the RPI and 61st in the NET) and Drake (31st and 99th) have been harmed more by the shift. Scoring margin seems to be the culprit for the Pirates. They have won their four biggest games (Miami, Kentucky, Maryland and St. John’s) by a combined nine points. But no one knows for sure why the discrepancy is so large between the RPI and the NET as the NCAA has not revealed the formula for how the metric is calculated. The five components (game results, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin) are known, but the weight each factor is given within the formula is not. As a way of comparison, St. John’s, which does not own a significant win, is 34th in the RPI and 36th in the NET.
“I don’t think that predictive metrics should be used at all, but what bothers me most is that no one knows what the formula is,” Willard said, adding that he finds the use of scoring margin as “problematic.”
“I think it’s going to change the way that guys coach, to be honest,” he said. “Maybe if you’re down eight or so with under a minute to go, instead of fouling you just hold the ball so you don’t lose by too much.”
The remainder of the article deals with the Pirates season so far. A worthwhile read. For anyone who does not subscribe The Athletic is well worth the few bucks it costs to subscribe especially for their NFL & MLB coverage.
Tom K
"Success-against-a-tough-early-slate-has-Seton-Hall-in-position-for-a-fast-finish/"
Here is an excerpt regarding the RPI vs the new NET rating system used by the NCAA
To be sure, the Pirates have had their fair share of lucky breaks, but one thing working against the Hall this season is the shift from the RPI to the NET as the primary organizing metric for the NCAA selection committee. After the win over St. John’s, the Hall sits 22nd in the RPI, but is slotted 52nd in the NET. Only Temple (21st in the RPI and 61st in the NET) and Drake (31st and 99th) have been harmed more by the shift. Scoring margin seems to be the culprit for the Pirates. They have won their four biggest games (Miami, Kentucky, Maryland and St. John’s) by a combined nine points. But no one knows for sure why the discrepancy is so large between the RPI and the NET as the NCAA has not revealed the formula for how the metric is calculated. The five components (game results, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin) are known, but the weight each factor is given within the formula is not. As a way of comparison, St. John’s, which does not own a significant win, is 34th in the RPI and 36th in the NET.
“I don’t think that predictive metrics should be used at all, but what bothers me most is that no one knows what the formula is,” Willard said, adding that he finds the use of scoring margin as “problematic.”
“I think it’s going to change the way that guys coach, to be honest,” he said. “Maybe if you’re down eight or so with under a minute to go, instead of fouling you just hold the ball so you don’t lose by too much.”
The remainder of the article deals with the Pirates season so far. A worthwhile read. For anyone who does not subscribe The Athletic is well worth the few bucks it costs to subscribe especially for their NFL & MLB coverage.
Tom K
