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NIL reshaping college basketball recruiting has dropped value of high school prospects

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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'Freshmen are a bad investment. They're all rentals,' one Division I coach told CBS Sports​


By Matt Norlander

NORTH AUGUSTA, S.C. — Every year, the Nike Peach Jam gets bigger and brighter with its star power and big-tent presentation.

LeBron James, who's attended a few Peach Jams in the past, has never been more prominent than he was the past few days here at the Riverview Park Activities Center. James took on the role of head coach, picking up the whiteboard and tutoring his son, Bryce, and their Strive For Greatness team. Beyond the spectacle of arguably the greatest player in NBA history strutting the sidelines in a South Carolina gym, the NBA (for the first time) invested in live streaming all week. It's taken what was once a proud-but-niche recruiting event and morphed it into a buzzy, week-long celebration of high school basketball at its highest level.

NBA greats can be seen all over the facility. Carmelo Anthony's been on hand to watch his son, Kiyan, play for Team Melo. Chris Paul, as he's done for years, is back and coaching his CP3 program. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook are here. Rajon Rondo is LeBron's assistant. It's always awesome to see NBA legends giving back like this.

The best of the best in the 2024, 2025 and 2026 classes have also shined: Dylan Harper, the No. 1 player in the '24 class, has reliably drawn crowds while playing for the New York Renaissance. The biggest non-LeBron draws, by far, are the two bigs in 2025: Cooper Flagg (Maine United) and Cameron Boozer (Nightrydas Elite). And on Friday, there was a must-see matchup between the top two players in 2026: A.J. Dybansta (Expressions Elite) vs. Tyran Stokes (Vegas Elite).

But beneath the glamour of the megawatt recruits, there's a thrum of uncertainty and more than a dash of cynicism with a lot of high school recruiting — much of it tied to the realities of the transfer portal and how that has upended the calculus of program-building for power conferences and mid-majors alike.

"A lot of freshmen don't want to be patient," an SEC coach told CBS Sports. "Used to be that I'd come here looking for three or four high school players. Now it's maybe one or two."

College basketball recruiting is in the middle of a turbulent era. From a roster-building standpoint, it's probably never been more volatile. There are two more seasons left with NCAA athletes getting a bonus year of eligibility due to COVID. That, in addition to NIL legislation and in addition to the transfer portal's explosion, has made for an environment in the sport's offseason that feels as fraught, unpredictable and taxing as it's ever been.

There has long been a credo in college hoops: get old, stay old. It's never felt more true than now, only instead of getting old by recruiting and retaining players for four or five years, teams are trying to get old by adding batches of transfers at rates never seen before. Coaches are prioritizing 21-, 22- and 23-year-olds (on their second or, sometimes, a third school) over the development of freshmen. To be clear, this is a two-way street. The coaches are adapting to the behavior of players, who are seeking the most playing time and/or money they can get in this nascent age of NIL.

"The thing is, they get the one-time transfer," a Big Ten coach said. "If you can get a kid after he leaves, after his freshman or sophomore year, and then he's stuck? That shit's like gold, man."

Added another Big Ten coach: "However many freshmen you take, you need to prepare to have that many spots available open in the spring. Freshmen are a bad investment. They're all rentals."

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Not surprising at all. From an assistant coaching perspective, should they be spending more time observing other college players (for transfers) versus HS games?
 
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