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No surprise here

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The scary thing is that these numbers are expected to be much worse for 2021 and beyond. Isolation has significant downstream unintended consequences with mental and physical health issues/deaths. But the mask.....

https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/us-overdose-deaths-hit-record-93000-in-pandemic-last-year/

Your argument seems to be that lockdowns and isolation is what caused these overdoses while trends of overdoses have been increasing for over a decade. I recall you posting about that years ago saying things would be getting much worse and they have been.

Have you looked into where these deaths were occurring? Did areas with more restrictions have a higher increase than areas with less restrictions? If there is a correlation there, you may be correct. If there isn't, then you may want to revisit your argument.
 
Your argument seems to be that lockdowns and isolation is what caused these overdoses while trends of overdoses have been increasing for over a decade. I recall you posting about that years ago saying things would be getting much worse and they have been.

Have you looked into where these deaths were occurring? Did areas with more restrictions have a higher increase than areas with less restrictions? If there is a correlation there, you may be correct. If there isn't, then you may want to revisit your argument.
"Lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions isolated those with drug addictions and made treatment harder to get, experts said."...I'll go with the experts on this one....
 
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Of course you will because it is a premise you agree with. I'm sure you just always defer to experts in every article you read with "experts" cited.
When I see "merge" recognized as an expert on pandemics and trailing diseases, I will certainly defer; but until then.....I'll stick to news sources from a recognized non-bias media outlet.
 
Just like you do. What's the problem?

You'll have a hard time finding an example of a discussion here where take the lazy way out and defer to experts outside of something none of us here can possibly answer like how scientists would be able to identify if Covid was man made or not.

I'm always willing to support my opinions.
 
When I see "merge" recognized as an expert on pandemics and trailing diseases, I will certainly defer; but until then.....I'll stick to news sources from a recognized non-bias media outlet.

but literally in the same article there is a different theory outside of isolation about why overdoses went up... but you post here about the isolation aspect being the driver because that is what you want to agree with.

Do the work. Find out of your theory is correct or not.
Did states with less restrictions see slower growth in overdose deaths than states with more restrictions? Should be pretty simple to prove.
 
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but literally in the same article there is a different theory outside of isolation about why overdoses went up... but you post here about the isolation aspect being the driver because that is what you want to agree with.

Do the work. Find out of your theory is correct or not.
Did states with less restrictions see slower growth in overdose deaths than states with more restrictions? Should be pretty simple to prove.
lol...I speak to experts everyday that work in hospitals in the region. They are getting paid to do that research and take actions. This article supports those experts (with their own experts). I posted an article that provided data on the increase in childhood obesity during COVID (another consequence that those same experts were sharing over a year ago). Finally, some of this damage will take years to calculate because it's the long term effect of extended isolation. I'm happy to put a 5 and 10 year tickler in my file to pull the retrospective study, but the early signs support my (and the experts) view.
 
lol...I speak to experts everyday that work in hospitals in the region. They are getting paid to do that research and take actions. This article supports those experts (with their own experts). I posted an article that provided data on the increase in childhood obesity during COVID (another consequence that those same experts were sharing over a year ago). Finally, some of this damage will take years to calculate because it's the long term effect of extended isolation. I'm happy to put a 5 and 10 year tickler in my file to pull the retrospective study, but the early signs support my (and the experts) view.

So lets look at NJ. Probably the most restrictive lockdowns in the US since the pandemic started.
Overdose deaths.
2018 - 3,163
2019 - 3,021
2020 - 3,046

Seems kind of odd to blame isolation as the increase across the country.

I get why you want to change topics to childhood obesity. Glaring hole in your first argument.
Same theory though on childhood obesity though. That has been trending the wrong way for over a decade and if you want to tie the cause to isolation in 2020 - there will be a correlation for states with more restrictions doing worse than states with less restrictions.
 
So lets look at NJ. Probably the most restrictive lockdowns in the US since the pandemic started.
Overdose deaths.
2018 - 3,163
2019 - 3,021
2020 - 3,046

Seems kind of odd to blame isolation as the increase across the country.

I get why you want to change topics to childhood obesity. Glaring hole in your first argument.
Same theory though on childhood obesity though. That has been trending the wrong way for over a decade and if you want to tie the cause to isolation in 2020 - there will be a correlation for states with more restrictions doing worse than states with less restrictions.
Interesting that you choose to just post data on one state. The article I posted pointed to a steep increase last year nationally. Obviously a better sampling. And as I said earlier, these are consequences that will play themselves out more in the long term Even though the early returns don’t look good. But you continue to ignore that.

The article I posted last week on childhood obesity, was real data from Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia. Personally, I think that’s only the tip of the iceberg. Only going to get worse. As the saying goes, you’re not entitled to your own set of facts.
 
Interesting that you choose to just post data on one state. The article I posted pointed to a steep increase last year nationally. Obviously a better sampling. And as I said earlier, these are consequences that will play themselves out more in the long term Even though the early returns don’t look good. But you continue to ignore that.

The article I posted last week on childhood obesity, was real data from Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia. Personally, I think that’s only the tip of the iceberg. Only going to get worse. As the saying goes, you’re not entitled to your own set of facts.

The point is that if you look at every states by itself, you will see your theory about tying the national increase to "isolation" is probably not correct. A lot of people praised Florida in their Covid response for the limited restrictions, right? Overdoses increased 37%.

I'm not ignoring the trends look bad, I just disagree with where you are placing the blame.
As if to say all other things being equal, if we did not have any Covid restrictions last year that overdoses and childhood obesity would both be down compared to where they are now?
 
The point is that if you look at every states by itself, you will see your theory about tying the national increase to "isolation" is probably not correct. A lot of people praised Florida in their Covid response for the limited restrictions, right? Overdoses increased 37%.

I'm not ignoring the trends look bad, I just disagree with where you are placing the blame.
As if to say all other things being equal, if we did not have any Covid restrictions last year that overdoses and childhood obesity would both be down compared to where they are now?
Federal guidelines were focused on isolation and shutdowns; states had different timelines of impact and instituting local actions. I’m just saying that there are a lot of long term health issues (drug overdoses and obesity just being two), that are already playing out in the short term. There are others (suicide and cardiac disease) that are also expected to rise dramatically. Every health expert I’ve talked to recognizes this and is preparing for continued rapid increas

A lot of these issues and fatalities could have been or could be avoided if better decisions and messaging could have been implemented.

And, no, we would not be seeing these kinds of increases with all things being equal.
 
A lot of these issues and fatalities could have been or could be avoided if better decisions and messaging could have been implemented.

Hindsight is 20/20. I think an unfortunate part of a global pandemic going around the world killing millions of people will create a lot of fear an anxiety regardless of the response from politicians. Could we have done better? Of course. Could we have done worse? Of course.


And, no, we would not be seeing these kinds of increases with all things being equal.
You are free to have that opinion, but like I said... if it were true that isolation was to blame here, it would show up in states with more restrictions.
 
Right. It has been getting worse pretty much every year.

I just disagree that the increase this year was caused by isolation from Covid restrictions. Not really a supportable position.
Numbers and experts thus far say you’re wrong and as I’ve said multiple times, it has to be measured over the long term.
 
Interesting that you choose to just post data on one state. The article I posted pointed to a steep increase last year nationally. Obviously a better sampling. And as I said earlier, these are consequences that will play themselves out more in the long term Even though the early returns don’t look good. But you continue to ignore that.

The article I posted last week on childhood obesity, was real data from Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia. Personally, I think that’s only the tip of the iceberg. Only going to get worse. As the saying goes, you’re not entitled to your own set of facts.


Could the increase have to do with people losing jobs in mass numbers? That could lead to people drinking and turning to drugs.
 
Could the increase have to do with people losing jobs in mass numbers? That could lead to people drinking and turning to drugs.
Time will tell. The article and experts I have spoken with don’t believe that it’s been the major contributor.
 
id bet loss of job is a main contributor. it always is. id also bet overdoses skew high for red states like florida and ohio for example. the rural areas too. these numbers were going to be an all time high this year regardless. if theyre higher next year then you have your answer.
 
id bet loss of job is a main contributor. it always is. id also bet overdoses skew high for red states like florida and ohio for example. the rural areas too. these numbers were going to be an all time high this year regardless. if theyre higher next year then you have your answer.
California has one of the largest increases. I don’t see a political party angle to this at all. No data to support that either.
 
id bet loss of job is a main contributor. it always is. id also bet overdoses skew high for red states like florida and ohio for example. the rural areas too. these numbers were going to be an all time high this year regardless. if theyre higher next year then you have your answer.

There are obviously a lot of factors contributing, but considering Q1 2020 was almost 20% higher than Q1 2019, it's a stretch to use "isolation" from Covid as the main driver considering there were no restrictions in place outside of NY and NJ for 2-3 weeks during that quarter.

Unfortunately overdoses were going to go up with or without the pandemic, largely driven by the increase in fentanyl imports / usage.
 
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California has one of the largest increases. I don’t see a political party angle to this at all. No data to support that either.
the angle is based on their quarantine/lockdown restrictions where red states clearly trend on the light side of it.
 
the angle is based on their quarantine/lockdown restrictions where red states clearly trend on the light side of it.
I don’t think you can draw conclusions at that granular level. Overall, as a country we had messaging that supported isolation with each state nuancing it. As I’ve said all along, there are and will be consequences from that strategy that also need to be weighed when we look at the entire toll of the pandemic. The early data is supporting what I am suggesting, but it will take time to see the full effect as some of these issues manifest over time.
 
I don’t think you can draw conclusions at that granular level. Overall, as a country we had messaging that supported isolation with each state nuancing it. As I’ve said all along, there are and will be consequences from that strategy that also need to be weighed when we look at the entire toll of the pandemic. The early data is supporting what I am suggesting, but it will take time to see the full effect as some of these issues manifest over time.
how did florida do on isolation? i guess you could say it was nuanced lol
 
how did florida do on isolation? i guess you could say it was nuanced lol
But they are not identified as a state with a large increase.

The fact remains is that overdoses were up by 29% last year nationally and it looks like 2021 will be even worse.
 
But they are not identified as a state with a large increase.

The fact remains is that overdoses were up by 29% last year nationally and it looks like 2021 will be even worse.
if 2021 is worse then how can it be blamed on isolation. there is no isolation anymore.
 
The early data is supporting what I am suggesting

Not really. You're comparing a known (trends today) to an unknown (what the trends would have been without any Covid restrictions)

There is no way to know what the unknown would have resulted in outside of your own supposition but when you start to compare the trends in states with a lot of restrictions to states with few if any restrictions, you would expect some kind of correlation there to support what you are suggesting - but there isn't one.
 
But they are not identified as a state with a large increase.

The fact remains is that overdoses were up by 29% last year nationally and it looks like 2021 will be even worse.

Not identified as a state with a large increase?

Nationally up 29%
Florida up 37%
 
if 2021 is worse then how can it be blamed on isolation. there is no isolation anymore.
Because mental health issues as a result of isolation take months and years to manifest themselves. Prescription drug use to treat depression is also up significantly. Some of those patients recover and some of them don’t. It’s a leading indicator.
Not identified as a state with a large increase?

Nationally up 29%
Florida up 37%
I was referring to the article
 
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Because mental health issues as a result of isolation take months and years to manifest themselves. Prescription drug use to treat depression is also up significantly. Some of those patients recover and some of them don’t. It’s a leading indicator.

How long would mental health issues as a result of a global pandemic killing millions of people take to manifest?

Anti-anxiety and anti-depression medications saw a significant spike in Q1 2020. Before any possible effects of isolation...
 
Not really. You're comparing a known (trends today) to an unknown (what the trends would have been without any Covid restrictions)

There is no way to know what the unknown would have resulted in outside of your own supposition but when you start to compare the trends in states with a lot of restrictions to states with few if any restrictions, you would expect some kind of correlation there to support what you are suggesting - but there isn't one.
Y
How long would mental health issues as a result of a global pandemic killing millions of people take to manifest?

Anti-anxiety and anti-depression medications saw a significant spike in Q1 2020. Before any possible effects of isolation...
I'll keep repeating myself so you hopefully will comprehend it at some point. The data and my conversations with health experts (not message board posters), provides the basis for my opinions.
 
Y

I'll keep repeating myself so you hopefully will comprehend it at some point. The data and my conversations with health experts (not message board posters), provides the basis for my opinions.

Right. You keep deferring to "experts" as a way to avoid a discussion because there are some fairly large flaws in your theory that you don't know how to answer.

Go ask your experts why anti-anxiety and anti-depression medications as well as drug overdoses both saw a significant spike in Q1 2020, prior to any Covid restrictions. Also ask why there is no correlation for changes in drug overdoses in 2020 for states with the most Covid restrictions.
 
Right. You keep deferring to "experts" as a way to avoid a discussion because there are some fairly large flaws in your theory that you don't know how to answer.

Go ask your experts why anti-anxiety and anti-depression medications as well as drug overdoses both saw a significant spike in Q1 2020, prior to any Covid restrictions. Also ask why there is no correlation for changes in drug overdoses in 2020 for states with the most Covid restrictions.
No, I refer to experts, because they are dealing with this issue every day and I respect their opinions. There are no flaws in my "theory" and I don't need to go ask them to satisfy you. I've posted two articles that point to the dramatic increase in overdose deaths and childhood obesity...real data; and have supported it with opinions of experts when I've asked as to the why. If you don't like it, that's your opinion.
 
Totally missing the point...
i think the point is that their is no proof that isolation caused the increase in opioid deaths that was clearly already happening.

experts say masks work right? those experts must be different people. these experts right here are legit.
 
i think the point is that their is no proof that isolation caused the increase in opioid deaths that was clearly already happening.

experts say masks work right? those experts must be different people. these experts right here are legit.
No, opioid deaths increased 29% in 2020 and are expected to increase by a greater margin this year. Look at the trend for the last five years:

2016-63k
2017-70k
2018-67k
2019-71k
2020-93k


I'll stick with my trusted network of experts, but thanks.
 
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