North Carolina in play?

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http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

This site has been pretty fun to watch.

Applying the 2008 exit polling data to the current demographics available, based on the results of early voting using race.
Obama getting 35% of the white vote, and 95% of the black vote. (2008 numbers)
Obama has a 136,272 lead 1 day before the election compared to a 99,966 vote lead in 2008.

62% of the votes had been cast by this day in 2008.

McCain received about 53% if the remaining votes and he lost the state.

Assuming the same 62% has voted and that the demographics voted close to how they voted in 2008, Romney would need to win about 58% of the remaining votes. Or 85% of the remaining voters will need to be white compared to 80% that were white in 2008.

Again... just for fun, and Romney may increase the percentage of white voters which would through this off but based on early voting results, I think Obama has a better chance than I thought in NC

 

[Pirate6711]

North Carolina is not in play. Obama has stopped campaigning here. His coattails are not very big in this election and lots of republicans are voting against him. He lost a lot of voters when Amendment 1 was passed with absolute ease during the primary (defining marriage as between a man and a woman) and then completely went against his own stance on the issue and declared that he was in favor of same-sex marriages. The democrat governor who rode the Obama coattails in 2008 just completed an atrocious term and decided not to run for re-election. The republican she defeated in 2008 has a double digit lead over th lieutenant governor.

You cannot use the 2008 data as a basis for 2012 in North Carolina. The tide has shifted drastically since 2008 and Romney will easily win the state.

 

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Originally posted by Pirate6711:
North Carolina is not in play. Obama has stopped campaigning here. His coattails are not very big in this election and lots of republicans are voting against him. He lost a lot of voters when Amendment 1 was passed with absolute ease during the primary (defining marriage as between a man and a woman) and then completely went against his own stance on the issue and declared that he was in favor of same-sex marriages. The democrat governor who rode the Obama coattails in 2008 just completed an atrocious term and decided not to run for re-election. The republican she defeated in 2008 has a double digit lead over th lieutenant governor.

You cannot use the 2008 data as a basis for 2012 in North Carolina. The tide has shifted drastically since 2008 and Romney will easily win the state.

I didn't have it in play at all until I started watching that website. Same sex marriage is not on the ballot and will have no effect on turnout there.

Breaking it down by race is the easiest way to look at their electorate.
Romney either needs to get slightly higher than 65% of the white vote, or a lot more of the black vote. Recent polling for NC showed Romney getting 60% of the white vote and 12% of the black vote (and would lose the state if those numbers are correct)

 

[Pirate6711]

Same sex marriage is not on the ballot in November, but it was in the spring and brought out many more voters than you would normally see in a primary that featured two candidates that had already sealed their repective party nominations. It became a rallying point for the conservatives down here and, in addition to low approval ratings for many democrat officials including the president and governor, it has helped build momentum for the republicans.

Even bigger than race in North Carolina will be Obama's ability to carry Raleigh and Charlotte by the massive gaps he won with in 2008. In 2008, he won the state by about 14,000 votes and won Wake County (Raleigh) by 64,000 and Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) by over 100,000. If the republican party has been able to put even small dents into those margins, Romney is going to win this state.

 

[Pirate6711]

Even yesterday on Meet the Press, David Plouffe said that in addition to Ohio, his campaigners will be focusing their efforts on Florida and Virginia because they are in play. North Carolina has more Electoral votes than Virginia. If NC was still in play, then why wouldn't Obama want to campaign here in an effort to pick up 15 votes instead of 13?

 

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Originally posted by Pirate6711:
Same sex marriage is not on the ballot in November, but it was in the spring and brought out many more voters than you would normally see in a primary that featured two candidates that had already sealed their repective party nominations. It became a rallying point for the conservatives down here and, in addition to low approval ratings for many democrat officials including the president and governor, it has helped build momentum for the republicans.

Even bigger than race in North Carolina will be Obama's ability to carry Raleigh and Charlotte by the massive gaps he won with in 2008. In 2008, he won the state by about 14,000 votes and won Wake County (Raleigh) by 64,000 and Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) by over 100,000. If the republican party has been able to put even small dents into those margins, Romney is going to win this state.

Again, I am just looking into this because I like to play with numbers...

Looking at Mecklenburg 2012 early voting is up 45,000. That seems to favor Obama.
Mail ballots which typically favor republicans are also down 20,000 from 2008.
The number of registered Latino voters has doubled from 2008 which also favors Obama.

Also, the Obama campaign has spend 24 million in the state... Not quite Ohio or Florida money... but they seem to think the state is in play.

 

[Pirate6711]

Romney won NC by just under 100,000 votes. It was a lot closer than I thought it would be, especially since republicans took complete control of the state. Pat McCrory, a very moderate republican while he was mayor of Charlotte, cruised to victory the race for governor. Republicans have control of the house, senate, and governor in NC for the first time since before 1900. It will be interesting to see if McCrory continues to be a moderate or if he will cater to the very conservative factions of the party now that they have full control.

 

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Originally posted by Pirate6711:
Romney won NC by just under 100,000 votes. It was a lot closer than I thought it would be, especially since republicans took complete control of the state. Pat McCrory, a very moderate republican while he was mayor of Charlotte, cruised to victory the race for governor. Republicans have control of the house, senate, and governor in NC for the first time since before 1900. It will be interesting to see if McCrory continues to be a moderate or if he will cater to the very conservative factions of the party now that they have full control.

Yeah, it was close. I really didn't expect Obama to win NC. As far back as August I was expecting Obama to win with 303 electoral votes, but the early voting in NC did show some signs that Obama had a chance.

Romney ended up getting 68% of the white vote compared to McCain getting 65%
That 3% difference of white voters represents about 91,000 votes, and this is one area where the state polling really showed a significant difference. The polling had showed Romney getting 60%.

In any case, NC was pretty close and fun to watch for a few days heading into the election.