Ranking the Big East entering February

[ncaaball2]

looks like dan hasn't started his yet, so I will.

The top teams
1A. Nova
1B. Xavier
1C. Providence
Not even going to rank them. NCAA seeding is nova 1, x 2, and PC in the 2-4 range. But all three of these teams are good and might as well just pick a name out of a hat if you want to know who goes further in the dance. Nice having three legitimate tourney threats this year.

Right side of the bubble
4. Seton Hall
All alone in this category right now. Seton Hall now has a clear path to the tourney and is just scratching the surface of what could be a very good prolonged run.

Wrong side of the bubble
5. Butler. Can't really see a path for them making the tourney. Conference record is too poor
6. Georgetown. If only they could have that uconn game back we might have a more realistic path to the tourney.
7. Creighton. Terrible out of conference schedule will ultimately keep them out
8. Marquette. Terrible out of conference schedule and the loss to DePaul are too much to overcome.
I can't see any of these teams going to the tourney. It's seton hall or bust for a fourth big east team this year.

Bad teams
9. DePaul
10. St. John's.

 

[Halldan1]

1. Xavier - Still think they have the best overall team. Scary depth and toughness.

2. Villanova - Just a hair behind the leader. Both fighting for a 1-2 NCAA seed.

3. Providence - Like them but when you depend on 2 players you are ripe to be beaten.



4. Seton Hall - Maybe Pat Lyons knew more than most here.

5. Creighton - Did that brutal loss to Georgetown turn around a promising Big East start?

6. Georgetown - Too much talent to have 9 losses.

7. Butler - Talk about falling off of a cliff!

8. Marquette - Turning it around?




9. DePaul - The beat goes on.

10. The worst team in SJU history?

 

[Halldan1]

Kenpom


1 Villanova 18-3 8-1

2 Xavier 19-2 7-2

3 Seton Hall 15-6 5-4

4 Providence 18-4 6-3

5 Creighton 14-8 5-4

6 Butler 14-7 3-6

7 Georgetown 13-9 6-3

8 Marquette 15-7 4-5

9 DePaul 7-14 1-8

10 St. John's 7-15 0-9

 

[Halldan1]

NCAA RPI

1 Villanova

2 Xavier

3 Providence

4 Seton Hall

5 Butler

6 Georgetown

7 Creighton

8 Marquette

9. DePaul

10 St John's

 

[mjs428]

1. Nova
2. X
3. Prov

4. Hall
5. Gtown
6. Butler

7. Marquette
8. Creighton
9. Depaul

10. St Johns

 

[Bobbie Solo]

Gtown will get the benefit of the doubt the minute they compile 2 more wins of merit.

 

[shupat08]

GTown and SHU need to continue to separate themselves from Creighton and Butler... As long as we are 4th or 5th along with GTown. I think we get in... However, if we are 5th and GTown is 6th? I think GTown will get in.

It'd also be nice to see if we can catch up to a team like Prov in the standings.

 

[Piratefan2009]

Wrong side of the bubble
5. Butler. Can't really see a path for them making the tourney. Conference record is too poor
6. Georgetown. If only they could have that uconn game back we might have a more realistic path to the tourney.
7. Creighton. Terrible out of conference schedule will ultimately keep them out
8. Marquette. Terrible out of conference schedule and the loss to DePaul are too much to overcome.

Not sure I agree with some of this. I think you are forgetting about the OOC a bit. Butler had a great OOC (Wins over 9 ranked Purdue, 17th ranked Cinci, Temple, Tennessee). They had a much better record than us. Not sure the timeline on them getting their PG back, but I think they would be in if they can get to 9-9 in conference. Do they have a path to 9-9? They would need 6 wins out of 9. Sweep us and Gtown, get St. Johns and Marquette. It's possible.

Marquette didn't have a terrible OOC. It was about equal to ours. Big wins over LSU and Wisconsin. Both those teams are looking good in conference and Wisconsin was an away game. ASU has fizzled but will still be a top 100 win. One questionable loss just like us.

Agree on GT and Creighton.

 

[Proff Ed]

Even LB State has a decent RPI and have been moving up steadily.

 

[Bobbie Solo]

Wisconsin, LSU, Tennesee & Az State are not tourney teams at the moment, so those wins don't matter.

 

[ncaaball2]

Marquette has an RPI in the 100+ range because their out of conference schedule is up around #300. Really inexcusable. Creighton did the same thing.

You need a respectable out of conference schedule these days. It doesn't have to be a top 25 out of conference schedule, but try to keep it in the 100 range. There is not a huge difference on the court between a home game against #168 as opposed to one against #297, but what it does for your RPI rating is significant.

 

[SPK145]

1) Villanova
2) Xavier
3) Providence

4) Seton Hall
4) Georgetown
4) Creighton

7) Butler
8) Marquette

9) DePaul
10) St. John's

 

[Piratefan2009]

Marquette has an RPI in the 100+ range because their out of conference schedule is up around #300. Really inexcusable. Creighton did the same thing.

You need a respectable out of conference schedule these days. It doesn't have to be a top 25 out of conference schedule, but try to keep it in the 100 range. There is not a huge difference on the court between a home game against #168 as opposed to one against #297, but what it does for your RPI rating is significant.

I'm not sure if you are being facetious. Our OOC SOS according to Kenpom is 270. That's up near 300. Is that inexcusable?

Marquette has three good OOC wins (LSU, Wis, ASU). Wisconsin was an away win which looks pretty good and is something we don't have. LSU is looking better and better. They have one questionable loss (Belmont) in the OOC.

We have a slightly stronger OOC SOS, and a better win in WSU as of right now. One questionable loss (LBSU). Overall coming into conference both Marquette and Seton Hall were looked at similarly as bubble teams. The big difference is that we have outperformed them. We actually have the same good win (@prov), but they have lost to us in the head to head and to Depaul. Their season has just gone a different way so far.

 

[ncaaball2]

I didn't realize that Seton Hall had a 200+ OOC SOS. Not good.
But your overall SOS is is in the 70's, while Marquette is in the 100's.

RPI doesn't really care which teams you beat. It only considers the record versus your strength of schedule, and a little bump for where the games were played. So in a set of 4 home games, two against Oklahoma and UNC, the other two against Incarnate Word and Fordham, a 2-2 record is identical in terms of RPI impact for any combination of 2 wins/2 losses).

Marquette and SHU have the same record, but the RPI isn't really close. SHU has more road games, which accounts for some of the bump, but the rest of the difference comes down to SOS. Granted Seton Hall has played the toughest part of their conference schedule as well, helping the overall SOS a bit more.

 

[Bud Boomer]

SHU's OOC schedule is awful. There's really no excuse for it, but part of the problem was bad luck. Rutgers and USF were scheduled a couple of years ago. I'm guessing at the time SHU didn't anticipate those games would be the RPI equivalent of playing Tennessee Martin and Boston University.

 

[hallgrad80]

1. Nova
2. Xavier
3.PC

4.GT- Over SH ; Two senior starters Smith- Rivera and Bradley Hayes experience gives GT an edge over SH.

5. SH
5. Creighton

7.Marquette
8. Butler

9.DePaul
10. SJU

 

[SHUSource]

1) Villanova
2) Xavier
3) Providence

4) Seton Hall
4) Georgetown
4) Creighton

7) Butler
8) Marquette

9) DePaul
10) St. John's

This sounds right to me.

As Dan says, XU may well actually be better than Villanova, but until they beat them, VU gets the benefit here.

 

[mjs428]

I tried to tell people the OOC schedule was really weak. People were telling me Georgia & Ole Miss were quality wins. No doubt in my mind Willard banked on playing Virginia.

 

[Bud Boomer]

I tried to tell people the OOC schedule was really weak. People were telling me Georgia & Ole Miss were quality wins. No doubt in my mind Willard banked on playing Virginia.

Georgia and Ole Miss will likely both qualify as quality wins. It's the rest of the OOC (beyond Wichita State) that's the problem.

 

[Piratefan2009]

I tried to tell people the OOC schedule was really weak. People were telling me Georgia & Ole Miss were quality wins. No doubt in my mind Willard banked on playing Virginia.

I agree. It comes down to too many cupcakes padding the record.

Georgia and Ole Miss will likely both qualify as quality wins. It's the rest of the OOC (beyond Wichita State) that's the problem.

Completely agreed. So many teams within a driving distance in the 100-200 RPI pretty much every year. Need to replace one or two regular 200+ opponents with an upgraded version. I'd like to see two of the following subbed into our schedule: Princeton, Siena (maybe), Iona (shouldn't be a hard one to schedule), Stony Brook, St. Joseph's, Temple. There's a healthy bit of A10, MAAC flavoring in there. However, those teams are always between 75 and 200 on a regular basis. We honestly can do with one of FDU or St. Peter's or even Monmouth/NJIT. Pick one or two of those cupcakes per season.

 

[ncaaball2]

The difference between having a very good OOC SOS and a poor OOC is not always about the lack of high end teams, but it is the middle teams.

Nova has a good OOC SOS, ranked #25 in the nation. Seton Hall's SOS is in the 200's. But how different are they?

Nova played 12 OOC games, average opponent RPI = 128
Seton Hall played 12 OOC games, average opponent RPI = 178
(Of course OOC SOS is not done by looking at Opp RPI, but rather their win%, but this is a rough look at it)

That's not a crazy difference. But over a dozen games, it adds up.

So how do we get to those averages:
top 25 opponents:
Nova 2 (1, 9)
SHU 0

26-50 rated opponents:
Nova 1 (30)
SHU 1 (32)

51-100 rated opponents:
Nova 3 (57, 66, 69)
SHU 3 (52, 75, 90, 100)

So on the high end, Nova only has 1 more top 100 game. But, they have the two top 10 teams. Also, Nova has 6 games in the top 75 compared to SHU's 2. But these ones are tough to manipulate/predict when making the schedule. And again, these high end games are not the true difference maker between a OOC SOS in the 20's and one in the 200's.

101-200 rated opponents:
Nova 2 (133, 157)
SHU 0
(Note that Nova's two 100-200 games are solidly in this category, not on the fringe)

Here is where the problem begins:
201-300
Nova 3 (222, 232, 257)
SHU 5 (203, 216, 224, 239, 294)

300+
Nova 1 (313)
SHU 2 (306, 317)

So for 200 and above, Nova only has 4 games, with most being around 250 or better. Seton Hall has 7 of these games, with three of them being pretty high.

There is not much that can be done about the top 100 games. A lot of luck into what teams will perform to what level. What SHU needs to do is take 3 or 4 of these 200+ games and put them in the 100-150 range.

If you take the bottom 3 games on SHU's schedule and replace them with teams ranked 140, then Seton Hall's average opponent OOC drops all the way to 137. That is not too far off from Nova's 128, which is considered among the best OOC SOS among major conference schools.

and I note that someone said too many cupcakes padding the schedule, but is playing the #140 team at home really that much tougher than the #300 team?

Just some food for thought.

 

[Piratefan2009]

and I note that someone said too many cupcakes padding the schedule, but is playing the #140 team at home really that much tougher than the #300 team?

Yes. I would say there would be a marked difference in the difficulty of the game and what it looks like to the Committee. Look at some of the teams in the 130-150 territory (Kenpom). Illinois - 132, Penn State - 145, even Iona, Mercer, and Marshall look better than:

Longwood (300)
Stetson (301)
LIU Brooklyn (302)

It makes a statistical and "eye-test" difference come committee time. We played 3 extra 200+ opponents compared to Nova. I understand Willard was expecting to add Virginia as a top 10 opponent, but you should never take an early season tourney for granted like that.

Schedule. Harder. If we subbed in 3 of the 75-200 teams into our schedule instead of 3 of the 200+ opponents and won, we wouldn't be sitting on the bubble right now. We would have an RPI much lower and likely be sitting at a 6/7 seed. I'm as happy as anyone that we are looking at a possible bid right now, but a harder OOC would have still given us a chance if we ended up 9-9 at the end of the season.

I also think fans are hungry for good OOC home games. Throw 1 or 2 tastier opponents in there, and balance it out by playing one or two more away games.

 

[Halldan1]

Gtown will get the benefit of the doubt the minute they compile 2 more wins of merit.

We play them twice in the regular season. Rankings and tournament bids will be decided where it matters. On the court.

 

[ncaaball2]

Yes. I would say there would be a marked difference in the difficulty of the game and what it looks like to the Committee. Look at some of the teams in the 130-150 territory (Kenpom). Illinois - 132, Penn State - 145, even Iona, Mercer, and Marshall look better than:

Longwood (300)
Stetson (301)
LIU Brooklyn (302)

Oh, I agree there is a big difference in terms of how it impacts RPI and the way the committee views the game. But in terms of results, is there a huge difference? Nova's two 100-150 teams were East Tennessee State and Nebraska. Hardly world beaters there. Bring either of those teams to Newark and you are looking at a double digit spread in favor of the Pirates.

 

[Halldan1]

Jerry Carino ‏@NJHoopsHaven 7h7 hours ago

In Feb. we turn our attention to the RPI. Big East: Nova 2, Xavier 4, Prov 24, Seton Hall 46, Butler 67, GTown 74, Creighton 103, Marq 111

 

[Halldan1]

Jerry Carino ‏@NJHoopsHaven 11h11 hours ago

Associated Press Top 25 ballot: Seton Hall is back on the radar http://on.app.com/1ST1NUA via @AsburyParkPress