The Fight

[Pirata]

As I watch the news coverage of the invasion, I am interested in the actual fighting.

I am a Cold War vet ('79-'83) and served in a Combat Engineer unit. The underlying threat at the time was a massive Soviet tank invasion through the Fulda Gap. We were trained to support anti-tank warfare by combining obstacles and fire power.

The tactics have not changed much but the technology has. The Javelin missile is highly advanced relative to what we had.

We had the Dragon (1,000M range) and TOW (3,000 range), both fire and track weapons.

The Javelin has a 4750M (3 Mile range) fire and forget with 96+% hit rate.

 

[Pirata]

I have also seen reports of Ukrainians standing in front of tanks. Given that the tank did not drive through the people, it tells me that either they have been instructed not to harm civilians or they were not instructed at all.

Back in my time, our training on Russian military indicated that the low level Russian officers were poor at making impromptu decisions. They lacked the freedom to show initiative. When faced with a situation where there was not a set protocol, they were predicted to sit there and wait until they could get a decision by a higher command.

So something as simple as blowing a bridge could stall them for hours. they were told to go across bridge X and now it is gone. They will sit there until someone tells them what to do next.

I can't say for sure, but is seems like this still may be the case.

 

[SHallguy2]

Pirata thanks for your service. Hopefully we gave Ukraine thousands of these Javaline missiles. They could be a game changer. I wonder if Russia is also in possession of this technology. Based on what you are saying this could be a long drawn out war with lots of Russian casualties. Putin has put himself in a bad spot, isolating his country from the rest of the world. Let’s hope his next moves are to undo what was a very bad decision.

 

[HALL85]

Pirata thanks for your service. Hopefully we gave Ukraine thousands of these Javaline missiles. They could be a game changer. I wonder if Russia is also in possession of this technology. Based on what you are saying this could be a long drawn out war with lots of Russian casualties. Putin has put himself in a bad spot, isolating his country from the rest of the world. Let’s hope his next moves are to undo what was a very bad decision.

John I was with a buddy last night who is a real student of military history (he has served on the board at Gettysburg). His opinion was that we should have sent an airborne division into Ukraine last month to run practice missions with their Air Force. In his view, that would’ve shown that we (NATO) were committed to helping them (without having troops to fight) and weren’t going to take any of Putin’s crap.

Scandinavian countries are a little bit uneasy right now because they expect that his next move will be into Latvia Estonia and Lithuania… I love Finland’s attitude. “Come at me bro, because we’ve kicked your ass twice before”.

 

[Pirata]

Hopefully we gave Ukraine thousands of these Javaline missiles.

Seems like 500 or so. Combination of sold to and given to.

Ukraine Pins Hopes on Javelin Missiles to Dent Putin’s Armor

And soldiers tend to fire them at everything.

foreignpolicy.com

I wonder if Russia is also in possession of this technology.

They have Kornet's. It has pros and cons over the Javelin.

The Kornet Missile is Russia's Killer Anti-Tank Missile

In any conflict with NATO, Russia will make heavy use of the Kornet missile in anti-tank operations.

nationalinterest.org

 

[Pirata]

Another big factor is the make-up and motivation of the two forces.

It has been covered by media. I will just add that the the differences can't be understated.

The Russians have young conscripts who have been sent to a foreign land.

The Ukrainians are fighting to defend their homeland.

Von Clausewitz's "On War" is one of the classic books that are often referred to when analyzing wars. Sun Tzu's Art of War is the another.

I read "On War" years ago. I should go back at again. I recall him stating that war was a tool used for political purposes. "the continuation of politics (policy) by other means".

Another key tenet from On War was the need for the support of the people. Advantage: Ukraine. This is why Putin shut down Facebook, Twitter, and the protests. He clearly does not have the support of his people nor any support from other nations except possibly China..

 

[Pirata]

His opinion was that we should have sent an airborne division into Ukraine last month to run practice missions with their Air Force.

I agree with the gesture but would debate the use of ground troops.

It's a moot point because Biden was quite clear in letting Putin know that we would not be sending any troops, planes, or ships. It gave Putin the green light.

This all comes down to Ukraine not being in NATO. The message is loud and clear. We will send money and equipment and that's it. If Putin makes any concrete moves toward a NATO county, then we have a different situation.

 

[Pirata]

Another aspect of the Russian advance I do not understand is the formation of their tank and vehicle columns on the roads. It violates the most basic tactical principle of maintaining space between vehicles.

If US planes, drones, or cruise missiles were to get involved it would be shooting fish in a barrel. One missile could take out 2-4 vehicles easily. A strafing run by an A-10 would just fly up the column and take out 20 vehicles.

I wonder if the intelligence given to the field commanders was that they would have a leisurely drive into Kiev.

 

[SHallguy2]

I don’t believe they expected any resistance, now he is backed into a corner. Putin looks like a jackass, could take months to declare victory. An then what exactly is victory? An empty country where everyone has left. His own country suffering in an economic collapse. No win situation. To all his supporters he’s a failure. The longer they resist the worse he looks. Does he swallow his pride and back out calling for a cease fire? We should get back to work on the keystone pipeline. The world should use this opportunity to cripple and embarrass him. China meanwhile is watching this play out.

 

[Pirata]

An then what exactly is victory? An empty country where everyone has left. His own country suffering in an economic collapse. No win situation. To all his supporters he’s a failure. The longer they resist the worse he looks. Does he swallow his pride and back out calling for a cease fire?

Exactly. If, and that is a big if, they succeed in taking control of the country and disposing Zelensky, I do not see how he maintains peace. It will be another Afghanistan for them plus the economic collapse you cited. The Russian people will revolt at some point.

Putin is done on the world stage. Game over. I believe he will be tried on war crimes. A motion is being put forth in the Hague already. I can see a death penalty or suicide. Can't imagine he gets away with with no consequence. Curious if the Russians have the ability to get him out of there on their own.

The worrisome thing is the next few days and weeks. As you said, he is cornered. He is rapidly approaching the nothing to lose state.

 

[Section112]

I am hoping one of the oligarchs takes him out. They want to get back on their yachts.

 

[HALL85]

WWCMD....

What Would Carrie Mathison Do?

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

WWCMD....

What Would Carrie Mathison Do?

Probably sleep with a terrorist lol.

 

[Merge]

Another aspect of the Russian advance I do not understand is the formation of their tank and vehicle columns on the roads. It violates the most basic tactical principle of maintaining space between vehicles.

If US planes, drones, or cruise missiles were to get involved it would be shooting fish in a barrel. One missile could take out 2-4 vehicles easily. A strafing run by an A-10 would just fly up the column and take out 20 vehicles.

I wonder if the intelligence given to the field commanders was that they would have a leisurely drive into Kiev.

Thanks for the perspective.

Most of the stuff I was seeing seemed to assume Putin would just steamroll his way through. No idea where things go from here but certainly doesn't seem to be playing out in his favor so far.

 

[Merge]

Probably sleep with a terrorist lol.

Probably not wrong, I'd still watch it though. I loved that show.

 

[HALL85]

Probably not wrong, I'd still watch it though. I loved that show.

Who wouldn’t hit that if they could… Lol

Carrie is hot in a crazy train kind of way

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Probably not wrong, I'd still watch it though. I loved that show.

Great show, she was CRAZY

 

[Hallsome]

Thanks for the perspective.

Most of the stuff I was seeing seemed to assume Putin would just steamroll his way through. No idea where things go from here but certainly doesn't seem to be playing out in his favor so far.

Where did you see that “most of the stuff”? CNN? Fox? Cite your sources please
So you understand I don’t care
I’m as usual not being serious

 

[Pirata]

I still don't comprehend the Russian military. They keep showing the 40 mile long convoy which is a sitting duck.

 

[Merge]

I still don't comprehend the Russian military. They keep showing the 40 mile long convoy which is a sitting duck.

I saw someone theorizing they were supply trucks to try and show Ukraine that they can just keep this going for the foreseeable future, and Ukraine needs their ammunition for defense and can't really go on offense against the 40 miles of trucks.

 

[Pirata]

I believe the convoy consists of troop and supply trucks, armored personal carriers, and tanks.

I'd be curious to read more about the someone you mention and that theory.

I am not sure they need to go on the offensive.

Pentagon official says Russian troops have 'deliberately punched holes' in their own gas tanks in apparent attempts to avoid combat as morale declines: report

In an apparent attempt to avoid combat, some Russian troops have punched holes in their vehicles' gas tanks, a Pentagon official reportedly said.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Pirata]

Russian Soldiers Dumping Fuel From Tanks, APCs to Avoid War? Theory After Russian Tanks Run Out of Fuel on Way to Kyiv

Russian invasion of Ukraine started on Thursday morning following Russian President Vladimir Putin's televised address.

www.ibtimes.sg

 

[Pirata]

This tweet suggest the Russian troops were told this was a peace keeping mission. When they find out it it not, they are resisting the fight.

I cannot attest to the validity of the tweet or its contents.

 

[Pirata]

Here is a great clip. I could envision this guy cheering at a Pirates game. Brings back memories of Issiah Whitehead shot against Nova in the BET a few years ago.

After seeing the copter go down, you then see the other helicopters throw off chaff to avoid a hit.

 

[Pirata]

Not sure this is legit.

If it is, it explains much.

 

[Pirata]

Here is another. Seems like they only had a few days rations and now they are foraging.

 

[HALL85]

More and more reports surfacing that this was an unprepared, inept, deceived group of soldiers deployed by Russia. Sad to say, that we could have done a lot more to prepare Ukraine in protecting their country from loss of citizen life and destruction of their country. And now knowing more and more that the enemy could have been beaten back sooner is pretty bad.

 

[SHUSA]

More and more reports surfacing that this was an unprepared, inept, deceived group of soldiers deployed by Russia. Sad to say, that we could have done a lot more to prepare Ukraine in protecting their country from loss of citizen life and destruction of their country. And now knowing more and more that the enemy could have been beaten back sooner is pretty bad.

overall however its a positive development, as few as there probably will be