- Myron Medcalf
- ESPN Staff Writer
College basketball's parity and its system of crowning a champion create a unique opportunity for the game's underdogs. There is no George Mason in college football's playoff or the NBA Finals. College basketball, however, sends invitations to dozens of teams like that.
That's where the silly talk begins. But getting into the tournament -- even winning a game or two -- is a different task compared with winning six games and standing on the last dais in San Antonio this year. Three 11-seeds have reached the Final Four, and a No. 8 Villanova team won the whole thing in 1985, the lowest seed of all time to secure a crown. But that's rare. Since the inception of the NCAA tournament in 1939, UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, Indiana, Connecticut, Kansas and Louisville have claimed a combined 45 national titles. The other 343 Division I programs? Just 34.
The NCAA tournament belongs to the blue bloods.
Let's get real about who has a serious shot at the crown this season.
Legitimate national title contenders
Villanova Wildcats
On the road against a Xavier team projected by the selection committee to snag a 1-seed, Villanova connected on 11 of 19 3-pointers in the first half, most of them contested. But when the nation's most efficient offense grew cold Saturday, the Wildcats still made the hustle plays -- Eric Paschall's late steal, Mikal Bridges' jump shots, Collin Gillespie's fearless drives -- to win, despite the absence of injured standout Phil Booth. When the Wildcats play their best basketball, no team in America can touch them.
Virginia Cavaliers
Doesn't matter if you think Virginia basketball is sexy or if you doubt the postseason effectiveness of the Cavs' efficient brand of basketball. Tony Bennett's program has held eight top-50 opponents on KenPom.com under 60 points this season. A Virginia team that has manufactured one of the greatest defensive efforts in modern college basketball history could win the school's first national title.
Kansas Jayhawks
Remember when Kansas was set to end its streak of conference titles and miss history? Me either. No, this is not an invincible force in Lawrence, but Bill Self's four-guard lineup -- with Devonte' Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk connecting on more than 41 percent of their 3-point attempts and Udoka Azubuike leading the nation with a 77 percent clip inside the arc -- is a nightmare matchup for the field.
Duke Blue Devils
Stop with the nonsense. Duke needs a healthy Marvin Bagley III, who has missed three consecutive games, to fulfill its potential in the NCAA tournament. But its adjustments and three-game win streak without the lottery pick have showcased the talent behind him. Remember, this is the same Duke squad that beat Michigan State in the Champions Classic with Bagley on the court for just 10 minutes. Also, the last time a Duke team made a late-season switch to zone, Jahlil Okafor & Co. ended the year with a national title.
Michigan State Spartans
That Northwestern come-from-behind win produced the best and worst of a Michigan State team that sometimes needs to be reminded it's in a meaningful game. But these Spartans punk opponents on the offensive glass, play elite, top-10 defense, shoot the 3-ball better than any team in America, boast the services of a Wooden Award contender named Miles Bridgesand use Jaren Jackson Jr., the field's most imposing threat as a 6-foot-11 lottery pick who has made 47 percent of his 3-pointers in league play.
Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers have connected on just 25 of 76 attempts from beyond the arc in their past four games, a tepid 1-3 stretch for a team that once won 19 consecutive games. They've been off in recent weeks, and now Vincent Edwards could miss the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury. But Matt Painter has a pair of 7-footers who stuff the paint and a collection of shooters who've made nearly 42 percent of their 3-point attempts, a wonderful formula for a title run.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Yes, the Tar Heels lost one of the top frontcourts in college basketball, a unit that anchored last season's run to the third national title in the Roy Williams era. But they're still securing nearly 40 percent of their missed shots. Luke Maye is an All-American. Cam Johnson, who has compiled seven consecutive double-digit performances, looks healthy and comfortable. And Joel Berry II has 18 assists and six turnovers during his team's five-game win streak. Seems like the Tar Heels have shifted into championship mode this month.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Mark Few's best teams have created matchup problems with their bigs. Przemek Karnowski was a 7-footer who could pass out of the post and neutralize double-teams, and Kelly Olynyk could spread the floor with his midrange game. With Johnathan Williams, Few has an agile, veteran big man who can defend multiple positions and Killian Tillie, a 6-10 forward from France, who has made 45 percent of his 3-point attempts in conference play. Rui Hachimura is a 6-8 mystery with an explosive style. Don't sleep on this Gonzaga squad.
Arizona Wildcats
Yeah, I have questions, too. The Deandre Ayton and Dusan Risticlineups might not work against the small-ball threats Arizona must push away to reach Sean Miller's first Final Four and win the program's first national title since 1997. A run will also demand a consistent effort from Rawle Alkins, not a guarantee since his return from a foot injury, and a thorough defensive effort. But, Miller has Ayton, the most dominant talent in America. With Allonzo Trier and a fleet of good athletes around him, Ayton could go 2011-12 Anthony Davis on the field and carry these Wildcats to the crown, too.
