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How to bet every NCAA tourney first-round game
If you're looking to bet on the NCAA tournament, here's everything you need to know.
ESPN Chalk handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange will analyze all 32 NCAA tournament first-round games taking place on Thursday and Friday. We'll start with Thursday's games, add Friday's games on Wednesday morning (along with Villanova's first-round matchup) and then add the other First Four winners' games soon afterward.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday morning.
Jump to region: East | South| West | Midwest
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (-9.5)
Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET, Orlando, Florida
Over/under: 144.5
Tuley's Take: This line opened Florida -12 at South Point and I have to admit I immediately circled East Tennessee State as a potential play, since I had successfully faded Florida with Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. The Gators peaked early in the season when they looked like the second-best team in the SEC to Kentucky and a legitimate Final Four threat. Unfortunately for Florida, center John Egbunu went down with a torn ACL in February and that was a huge loss on both ends of the floor. Now, the Gators rely on the play of their guards, though SEC Sixth Man of the Year Canyon Barry (son of Hall of Famer Rick Barry) is recovering from a lingering ankle injury. So yes, I felt at first glance that Florida was vulnerable (especially with ETSU starting four seniors, which is typical of live mid-major upsetters), but after learning more about East Tennessee State, I'm not sure I trust the Buccaneers to keep this close enough.
Besides, we've lost quite a bit of value with the line being bet down from 12 to 9.5. ETSU's T.J. Cromer (19.1 points per game) is a one-man wrecking crew, but Florida's defense could force him to give up the ball more than he likes. I think the Buccaneers' only chance is to push the pace, and that could lead to turnovers and easy baskets for the Gators in transition, so I see this being a high-scoring affair.
The pick: lean to over 144.5
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:40 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 135
Tuley's Take: This is the second of four 5-12 matchups on Thursday, and I think it's another great spot for a 12 to pull an upset. This is a contrast in styles. I know Virginia has the nation's most efficient defense according to kenpom.com, but I believe UNC-Wilmington's relentless offense can overcome that. Virginia has been inconsistent on the offensive end and will have its hands full with CAA Defensive Player of the Year Devontae Cacok, who is also a beast on the offensive boards and hits a high percentage of his shots via dunks and layups in the paint. They almost don't get him the ball enough, but the Seahawks have plenty of other scorers with a four-guard lineup including C.J. Bryce and Chris Flemmings, and they also take care of the ball well, something needed against Virginia.
I also lean to the under (again, that's the Cavaliers' style of play, as they're 19-10-1 with the under on the season), but believe UNC-Wilmington will keep coming at Virginia and keep this close with a great shot at the outright upset.
The pick: UNC-Wilmington +7.5* (lean to under 135)
No. 9 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)
Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Buffalo, New York
Over/under: 138.5
Tuley's Take: Virginia Tech lost its best big man, Chris Clarke, to a torn ACL on Feb. 12, which makes the Hokies very thin and more reliant on their outside shooters. Wisconsin is eighth in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and will have the opportunity to defend the 3-point line with the Hokies' absence of an inside presence. That should also help Wisconsin sophomore center Ethan Happ have a big game in the paint, though the main reason to like the Badgers' chances is the senior leadership of Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig, who have a lot of NCAA tournament experience. I included Wisconsin as one of my value plays to win the whole thing at odds of 80-1, so I obviously expect them to get through this game, but I'm not willing to lay the points. The better play to me looks like the under, as the Badgers should dictate the tempo (they are 16-12-3 with the under this season) and grind out a victory.
The pick: under 138.5*
How to bet every NCAA tourney first-round game
If you're looking to bet on the NCAA tournament, here's everything you need to know.
ESPN Chalk handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange will analyze all 32 NCAA tournament first-round games taking place on Thursday and Friday. We'll start with Thursday's games, add Friday's games on Wednesday morning (along with Villanova's first-round matchup) and then add the other First Four winners' games soon afterward.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday morning.
Jump to region: East | South| West | Midwest
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (-9.5)
Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET, Orlando, Florida
Over/under: 144.5
Tuley's Take: This line opened Florida -12 at South Point and I have to admit I immediately circled East Tennessee State as a potential play, since I had successfully faded Florida with Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. The Gators peaked early in the season when they looked like the second-best team in the SEC to Kentucky and a legitimate Final Four threat. Unfortunately for Florida, center John Egbunu went down with a torn ACL in February and that was a huge loss on both ends of the floor. Now, the Gators rely on the play of their guards, though SEC Sixth Man of the Year Canyon Barry (son of Hall of Famer Rick Barry) is recovering from a lingering ankle injury. So yes, I felt at first glance that Florida was vulnerable (especially with ETSU starting four seniors, which is typical of live mid-major upsetters), but after learning more about East Tennessee State, I'm not sure I trust the Buccaneers to keep this close enough.
Besides, we've lost quite a bit of value with the line being bet down from 12 to 9.5. ETSU's T.J. Cromer (19.1 points per game) is a one-man wrecking crew, but Florida's defense could force him to give up the ball more than he likes. I think the Buccaneers' only chance is to push the pace, and that could lead to turnovers and easy baskets for the Gators in transition, so I see this being a high-scoring affair.
The pick: lean to over 144.5
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 5 Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
Thursday, 12:40 p.m., Orlando
Over/under: 135
Tuley's Take: This is the second of four 5-12 matchups on Thursday, and I think it's another great spot for a 12 to pull an upset. This is a contrast in styles. I know Virginia has the nation's most efficient defense according to kenpom.com, but I believe UNC-Wilmington's relentless offense can overcome that. Virginia has been inconsistent on the offensive end and will have its hands full with CAA Defensive Player of the Year Devontae Cacok, who is also a beast on the offensive boards and hits a high percentage of his shots via dunks and layups in the paint. They almost don't get him the ball enough, but the Seahawks have plenty of other scorers with a four-guard lineup including C.J. Bryce and Chris Flemmings, and they also take care of the ball well, something needed against Virginia.
I also lean to the under (again, that's the Cavaliers' style of play, as they're 19-10-1 with the under on the season), but believe UNC-Wilmington will keep coming at Virginia and keep this close with a great shot at the outright upset.
The pick: UNC-Wilmington +7.5* (lean to under 135)
No. 9 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)
Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Buffalo, New York
Over/under: 138.5
Tuley's Take: Virginia Tech lost its best big man, Chris Clarke, to a torn ACL on Feb. 12, which makes the Hokies very thin and more reliant on their outside shooters. Wisconsin is eighth in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and will have the opportunity to defend the 3-point line with the Hokies' absence of an inside presence. That should also help Wisconsin sophomore center Ethan Happ have a big game in the paint, though the main reason to like the Badgers' chances is the senior leadership of Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig, who have a lot of NCAA tournament experience. I included Wisconsin as one of my value plays to win the whole thing at odds of 80-1, so I obviously expect them to get through this game, but I'm not willing to lay the points. The better play to me looks like the under, as the Badgers should dictate the tempo (they are 16-12-3 with the under this season) and grind out a victory.
The pick: under 138.5*
