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What da ya think?

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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Major League Baseball has become Dave Kingman.

It hits .236 — Kingman’s lifetime average. It walks in 8.9 percent of its plate appearances and strikes out in 24.1 of them — Kingman’s averages were 8.2 and 24.4 (all stats are heading into the weekend). It does this in an endless hunt to hit home runs.

Kingman was entertaining in the 1970s and 1980s as an oddity for that approach: prodigious (for the time) strikeout totals and home run distances. He was fun when there was one of him. But now Kingman is pretty much the game.

In Kingman’s 1971 debut season, a plate appearance ended in a walk, strikeout or homer 24.7 percent of the time, meaning no ball was put in the field of play. The percentage was 26.6 in his final season, 1986. It is 36.1 percent across MLB each of the past two seasons. Hit by pitches — another not-in-play outcome — also have been at record levels the past two years.

A nine-inning game is, on average, taking 3:07 to play, tying last year for the longest ever. So it is taking longer than ever to produce a half a run less per game than even two years ago and a batting average that would be the lowest ever. The record low was .237 in 1968. That was the Year of the Pitcher. That year, two pitchers — Luis Tiant and Sam McDowell — averaged a strikeout per inning among 76 qualified starters. This year, 39 of 69 so far — a group that includes J.T. Brubaker, Tyler Mahle and Logan Webb — are averaging a strikeout per inning. It used to be you had to be an elite starter to do that, now you can fall out of Pitchers Anonymous.

Among relievers, 94 of the 143 who had appeared in 15 games were averaging a strikeout per inning, 69 were averaging 10 or more strikeouts per nine, 47 were averaging 11 or more, 34 were averaging 12 or more.

There were six no-hitters — not counting Madison Bumgarner’s in a seven-inning game. A third of teams were averaging four runs or fewer — including both the Mets and Yankees, who also were among the 12 teams batting .230 or lower. Five of those clubs were in the AL (you know, playing with a DH), including the Mariners, who were batting .198.

The conceit in baseball for decades was that there was nothing harder to do in sports than hit a baseball. Then, nearly every innovation of the past decade-plus has favored pitchers, making hitting even harder. What should frighten those who love the game is this from one GM: “I think we are not at the bottom.” So brace for lower averages and strikeouts 30 percent of the time — or more.

Marlins manager Don Mattingly recently said: “It’s been coming. It’s been building. And now it is at a point where it is getting so much more attention because it is just a game that sometimes is unwatchable.”

Which is why, attempting to generate more in-the-field-of-play offense, MLB is tinkering with rule changes throughout the minors — such as limiting defensive shifts, limiting pickoff throws to encourage base stealing and even, in the Atlantic League, moving the mound back a foot.

There are no easy solutions. Many attempts will have unintended consequences — would moving the mound back, for example, lead to even more pitching injuries? But doing nothing is no longer an option. The mound was lowered after 1968, the DH came to the AL five years after that. Here are three potential offensive additives I would recommend:
 
  1. Lower the strike zone to combat velocity, which is at the root of so many issues. Velocity rises, which forces quicker decisions by hitters, which leaves more susceptible to breaking balls — especially in the fastball up, breaking ball down model. All of this leads to the rise of bullpenning, because now hitters not only see different looks constantly throughout games, but they see one high-octane relief monster after another. The frequency of strikeouts and the lowering of ability to string together hits lead to further concentration on trying to hit homers to score runs. You can try for three singles before three outs in this environment, or you can try for a homer.
The average fastball was 89 mph in 2002 (Fangraphs). It has been on a pretty steady climb to 93.4 this year. Batting average pretty much drops with each mph, and pitchers have particularly adapted to work the top of the zone with substantial heat, a pitch that has the devilish combination of being tempting to swing at and incredibly difficult to hit. And remember, faster four-seamers also means faster sliders, cutters, etc.

“It used to be that pitchers offered straight fastballs and something that moved,” Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long said. “You don’t see straight fastballs any more, unless it is 98 [mph] at the top of the zone. That is a hard pitch to hit. Think how your bat moves. And then you are exposed to anything low, which is an offspeed pitch.”

Bringing the zone down to the belt (from the midpoint between the belt and shoulders) would allow hitters to train to be more disciplined to not offer above that — a pitch they are pretty much never hitting. It will also reduce the diversity and trickiness of the breaking ball down. This also would help address the rise in hit-by-pitches, especially in the upper body and head area, since pitchers no longer will work up as much.

2 Really address sticky stuff. If tomorrow, a prominent hitter such as Kris Bryant or Aaron Judge, had his bat break and super balls came flying out, it would be the biggest story in sports — the illegal doctoring of a bat to gain an advantage. Yet, in plain sight, we are watching the pitching version of this. Everyone suddenly is Gaylord Perry — going to pant legs, inside their gloves, to their non-pitching wrists or to the brim or back of their caps before each pitch. They are reaching for something to create a greater stick, which creates more spin for better break and depth on breaking balls and better ride on fastballs. Not everybody. But not a few.
One GM said, “The substance thing is a joke. The fact we are ignoring it is a bigger joke. We are seeing pitchers improve their stuff by 300-400 rpms. This isn’t rosin or sunscreen to get a better grip [on a slick baseball]. This is, the ball would stick to their fingers if they turned their hand upside down. I think, like steroids, we have created pitchers who are dominating who might not even be in the game if they weren’t cheating.”

In March, MLB sent a memo to teams saying it was collecting baseballs to see the extent of the problem and what was being used, as a cottage industry has grown in sticky stuff. A threat also was made of punishment, none of which has been meted out yet. And the gentleman’s agreement persists that no manager will challenge a pitcher on the other team, in recognition that members of his staff are doing similarly. So while MLB works on a tackier ball or a legalized sticky rag to put on the mound, this is going to fall onto the players to speak out and enforce in a way that never came for steroids.

The reality is there are many ways that pitchers can improve legally — from weighted ball regimens that increase velocity, to high-speed cameras that help refine efficiency of movement and release, to computer-generated scouting reports that pinpoint hitting weaknesses in a precision human scouting could not. A pitch that is not a four-seam or two-seam fastball or sinking fastball is now thrown half the time. As an AL GM said: “If you can’t hit a slider, you go to the plate now and get five sliders. There are no more hitter’s counts where you can just expect a fastball. The evolution of the game plan is now 100 percent geared toward exposing weaknesses. If you can’t hit a changeup, you are going to see that pitch all the time.”

To add sticky stuff to improved velocity and break, when all these other pitching edges exist, is unfair. And, again, it is illegal.

3 Limit shifts. From 2006-18, batting average on balls in play ranged from .295 to .303. It was .292 last year, .288 this season.
One GM said, “We are just so much better at positioning than ever.”

Long explained: “For every one that gets through a shift, there are three that get taken away. Everyone knows where my guys hit the ball and play accordingly.”

At Double-A this year, all four infielders must have their cleats on the infield dirt when the pitch is delivered, with a consideration for the second half of the season of enforcing two infielders on both sides of second base. The NBA and NFL consistently address defensive strategy to promote offense, and a shift is nothing more than a zone defense. This zone essentially has taken away batting average on grounders, especially to lefties, leading to even more of a fixation to get the ball into the air and out of the park. When people talk about changing swings, that is not as easy as snapping your fingers, especially with the velocity and the spin being encountered.

There also is a psychological impact of smashing a grounder at 100 mph-plus up the middle or into the traditional 3-4 hole — both hits for a century-plus — that are now often outs. The percentage of outs on grounders hit 90 mph (66 percent), 95 mph (62.3 percent) and 100 mph (59.3 percent) are the highest of the Statcast era (thanks to Sarah Langs at MLB.com).

Hitters are not being rewarded for striking the ball hard on the ground. So the impact of the shift is not just the balls that are fielded, but the change to a swing philosophy that often makes hitters more vulnerable to strikeouts.

MLB did not get to be Dave Kingman in one year or for one reason. It is going to take more than one change and one year to reverse this trend. But there can be no more delay.
 
I was a huge baseball fan when I was a kid, couldn't get enough of the game. Summer's were special as a bunch of friends would get together everyday and play homerun derby at Brookside Park in Bloomfield. I always enjoyed watching or listening to Mets games when I had time.

Everything changed in 1981 when the players decided to strike, it made me realize that the GAME was not important to professional players - MONEY was the motivator. The realization showed how naive I was about professional sports, and it ruined my interest in professional athletics. Very rarely do I watch a professional game on television, life is too short and there are many more important things to pass the time.

College basketball has been my passion for the past 40+ year as players are not paid and are playing for a future goal, whether it be a college degree or a professional career they seem to have a love for the game. I fear that money will end up ruining the college game, as it has in the professional game. I totally get the importance of money in the sport, but I get more joy out of watching players strive to be a team player, earn a conference tournament win, and work toward a NCAA bid.

Regarding MLB, stick a fork in it. Too expensive to bring your family, too boring to waste 2+ hours watching, I'll let someone else support their egos and wallets.

GO PIRATES!!!
 
As a huge baseball fan always, I find the current game boring and uninteresting. There's no action. It's not the sport I grew to love. Especially the Yankees. I maybe watch bits of 1 game per week now. Maybe.

It's not changing any time soon. Rule changes are unlikely to help. This now the culture of the sport.
 
The game has become single minded. And not just at the major league level.

I was cruising TV channels yesterday and came upon the Creighton/Xavier game. It did not have any interest to me but I watched two batters go up against the Creighton pitcher. Both had two strike counts. And each upper cutted the next pitch (on the outside corner) trying to pull it out of the park. One batter struck out and the other grounded out weakly to second.

I used to love to both play and watch this game. Now I just check the scoreboard ticker and tune in to the last inning of Yankee games.
 
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Great article and great points by Dan and Piratz. I was reading about how all the hitters are trying to hit up and maximize launch angle on their swings. All the golfers here know about launch angle. Also heard on WFAN how strikeouts are no big deal to batters now. Hitters are like so what I took a golden sombrero.

P.S. what do you guys think of the runner at 2nd base for extra innings new rule?
 
I actually like it. If 9 innings and nearly 4 hours is too much, what about 16 innings and 7 hours?
 
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Todays game of baseball is dominated by strikeouts , the home run and stats about exit velocity and spin rates. Parts of what contributed to making baseball the national sport for decades has been relegated to playing minor roles like bunting for a hit, the drag bunt , base stealing and others . The game has become too long to play and with so many strikeouts and historically low batting averages plus the radical shifts there is too often little action to capture a fans interest. I can’t remember the last time I can say I watched a game from start to finish and I don’t think I’m unique.

Can the game be saved with new rules or tweaks is unclear but maybe the role that the analytics gurus that are now dominating the way the game is played needs to be redefined and we go back to letting baseball people run the game again .
 
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