- Dave Tuley
- Andrew Lange
Unless you're among the rare few who are alive in NCAA brackets (which means you likely had either Gonzaga or North Carolina as your champion), the only way to make money on the Final Four is betting the individual games. Lucky for you, ESPN Chalk's college basketball handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange are here to help with their best bets.
Gonzaga (West) and North Carolina (South) won their regions as No. 1 seeds, while No. 3 Oregon won the Midwest and No. 7 South Carolina won the East.
Underdogs have been the way to go in this tournament, as they're 32-24-3 against the spread (57.1 percent) so far with one game closing as a pick 'em (Purdue-Iowa State in the round of 32). Underdogs fared even better in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds at 6-3-3 ATS (66.7 percent). Overs lead 33-26-1 (55.9 percent), but were over 60 percent before unders went 8-4 last weekend.
Tuley and Lange have also fared well, with their best bets at a combined 21-14 ATS (60 percent). Tuley is 12-6 with ATS best bets after winning with Kentucky +2.5 and losing with Xavier +8.5 over the weekend.
Tuley lost with the Kansas-Oregon over to fall to 1-3 with over/under best bets.
Lange is 3-1 with ATS best bets and 5-4 with O/U best bets.
Below are their takes on Saturday's two games.
Note: Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning. Picks marked with an asterisk are best bets. All times are ET.
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, 6:05 p.m., Glendale, Arizona
Over/under: 138.5
Lange: Among other reasons, South Carolina is here because it has shot the ball better than it did during the regular season. In four tournament games, the Gamecocks hit 47 percent from the floor, whereas during the regular season they netted a shade under 42 percent. They have really dominated other facets of the game. South Carolina held a combined 105-77 free throw attempt advantage, was plus-18 on the glass and forced 68 turnovers compared to only 47 of its own.
Gonzaga had a tough time offensively its first three NCAA tournament games. The Zags are rarely overwhelmed against power conference foes but there's a big class difference between what they face on most nights in the West Coast Conference and what they've seen in March. Their 83 points against Xavier were somewhat of a perfect storm, as the Musketeers were obviously gassed and also mediocre on the defensive end. While a small sample size, Gonzaga's inability to get much of anything against West Virginia could be a sign the Zags will struggle against the Gamecocks.
South Carolina is going to be a very popular bet with the public thanks to its perfect 4-0 ATS mark. Meanwhile, it took Gonzaga three games to finally cover a point spread. But "what have you done for me lately" is built into this line. Prior to the tournament, there wasn't much power rating separation between South Carolina and Northwestern. The Zags closed -10.5 against the Wildcats. Here, they are as low as -6.5. If you buy into current form, the underdog is very tempting. Look beyond what you've seen the last few weeks, and Gonzaga is actually pretty cheap.
Pick: lean to Gonzaga -6.5
Tuley: My one regret from this NCAA tournament was not seeing this run coming from South Carolina. I know I wasn't alone, but as an underdog player it's tough to see a team go 4-0 ATS with four outright upsets without having a single bet on them. I'm certainly going to regret this if the Gamecocks cash again, but can't pull this trigger this weekend either.
I agree with my colleague above that this number is short. ESPN Chalk's Vegas Power Ratings have Gonzaga as seven points better than South Carolina and that's only after the panel has upgraded the Gamecocks by 2.5 points (1.5 after the round of 32, another 1-point increase after last weekend) since the tournament began. If you're on the South Carolina bandwagon, I would suggest waiting. While the line is Gonzaga -6.5 at 10 of the Las Vegas books on the Don Best odds screen, three (Stratosphere, Boyd Gaming, Station Casinos) have gone to -7.
If I'm going to play this game, I'm looking at the under. I know the Gamecocks are 3-1 with the over as they're stepped it up on the offensive end in the tournament, but they're going to have to slow it down against Gonzaga, which is 3-1 with the under and also comfortable with a slower pace. The only thing keeping me from making it a best bet is that the over/under is set relatively low for a Gonzaga game (it closed 150 against West Virginia and 145 against Xavier).
Pick: lean to under 138.5
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
Saturday, 8:35 p.m., Glendale, Arizona
Over/under: 152
Lange: Two teams with a lot of offensive weapons and a pedigree of playing up-tempo helped push this total up from 148.5 to 152. That said, the Final Four path for both has largely been fueled by defense.
It took time for Oregon to adjust to Chris Boucher's season-ending injury, but the Ducks still have the look of an elite-level unit. Kansas had looked unstoppable prior to its Elite Eight matchup against the Ducks, but was held to 60 points on 64 possessions. One thing to note is that Oregon's four tournament opponents, including the Jayhawks, did not possess imposing frontcourts. If there's ever an opponent against which you'd like to have Boucher, it's North Carolina.
Speaking of good defense, the Tar Heels don't get nearly enough credit. Because of pace and big leads, they surrender their fair share of points, but they've held their four tournament foes to right at a point per possession, and rank 17th nationally in defensive efficiency -- one spot ahead of Oregon.
Bettors should also consider the venue. University of Phoenix Stadium is spacious and can be tough on shooters. In 2009, the venue hosted the West Regional, and the three games produced combined 27 percent shooting (25 of 92) on 3-pointers.
I really don't think Oregon wants to make this a track meet-type of game. The Ducks' four tourney games averaged only 66 possessions and that included two up-tempo opponents in Iona and Kansas. At the current price, I'd look under the total.
Pick: under 152*
Tuley: The nightcap is the more intriguing matchup to me, and while I like Lange's pick on the under (and that stat about 3-point shooting percentage at University of Phoenix Stadium makes me feel better about the under in the first game), I really like underdog Oregon against North Carolina. Most books opened the Tar Heels at -4.5, but our Vegas Power Ratings only have a 3-point difference between these two teams, so I agree with the early money that has pushed this line down.
A lot of people wrote off the Ducks after Boucher tore an ACL in the Pac-12 tournament, but Jordan Bell has really stepped up his game as the lone inside presence for Oregon while the rest of the team (mostly guards) has committed to crash the boards to help make up the slack. Now, this game against the tall North Carolina frontline is where Boucher's loss might be felt the most, but I look for Oregon to keep playing team basketball and get the job done.
All-America guard Dillon Brooks can certainly play with anyone while Tyler "Mr. March" Dorsey has also elevated his game, averaging 24.5 points per game in the tournament so far. We'll see if he can continue that in April. If Brooks, averaging just 16.5 points in the tourney, can step up his game, the Ducks have a real chance.
While the line is Oregon +4.5 at the Westgate, there were still several books at +5 as of this writing early Thursday morning, with a high of +5.5 at Boyd Gaming books here in Las Vegas, so be sure to shop around for the best number.
Pick: Oregon +4.5*
