Yes or no

[Halldan1]

Does Judge catch Maris?

54 and counting to 61.

Aaron Judge’s poise unparalleled to Roger Maris amid home run record chase

One guy lost his hair and peace of mind in the chase. The other represents the epitome of peace and placidity.

nypost.com

 

[HALL85]

I’ll go with Yes…final number of 64.

 

[Seton75]

Yes

 

[bigraym]

yup

 

[Section112]

Yes but either he ties him or has one more. Lots of important games coming up and he won’t see many good pitches to hit as the lineup around him is terrible. Teams know if you can keep Judges bat quiet you can beat the Yanks which makes his performance even more incredible.

 

[Piratz]

Yes. He’s carrying that team.

 

[hallgrad80]

Regrettably No. He’ll be facing better pitching as teams jockey for playoff position and he’ll be pitched around as the best way to avoid being beaten by a Judge HR. With no one else on the Yanks having a good offensive year to protect against pitchers avoiding pitching to him and that includes Stanton, Rizzo, Donaldson and Hicks , he misses breaking Maris’s record.

 

[SHUHitman]

It's doable, but it won't be easy for the reasons that other posters have mentioned above. That said, he's currently right on pace with not only Maris, but with Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, etc who blew past the 61 mark.

He's going to get his chance as there's still a lot of baseball left, but if he gets to 58-59, curious to see how he handles the pressure and the NY media scrutiny surrounding it. In some ways, the Yankees nosedive will have spared him of some pressure as the media is too preoccupied with the freefall. Had the Yankees continued to steamroll and had, say, a 20 game lead at this point....every article would be about him chasing Maris.

 

[cernjSHU]

No, the pressure will get to him. Moreover, he will see less pitches to hit for the rest of the year.

 

[MBF72]

Yes.
And..... for how much more than what he asked for in the spring will he sign for in

 

[MBF72]

...[sorry]... the off season; AND what are odds he re signs with the Yankees?

 

[SHUHitman]

...[sorry]... the off season; AND what are odds he re signs with the Yankees?

I think he'll resign here, if all things are equal or close to it. He's not going to give them a hometown discount, though. Similar situation as Jeter; despite how he may feel about Cashman or Steinbrenner now, there's still a lot to be said for being a part of the Yankee mystique and being in NYC. I think he understands that. I think his handlers also understand that marketing and branding opportunities will not be as lucrative or plentiful should he go elsewhere.

Judge needs to be paid market rate and he should be named Captain. Jeter was named Captain approximately 6-7 years from his debut. Judge will be entering his seventh season next year.

Imagine if he breaks the team HR record and walks? Cashman and Hal will need an armored car to travel around NYC in.

 

[SHUSA]

hell do it, but hell do it with a ton of legal (maybe illegal) substances and regimines that maris never had access to so yankees fans can argue about it for eternity.

 

[ed odowd]

Yes and yanks break the bank to resign him.

 

[Hall91]

Yes. Yanks need to sign him to long term deal to see if he can chase 700+ HRs.

 

[radecicco]

Can’t have guys laying down sac bunts in front of him in the line up.

 

[TheHall87]

Yes. Yanks need to sign him to long term deal to see if he can chase 700+ HRs.

He's already 30 with some injury history and 488 away from 700. Let's pump the brakes on that a little.

That said, he looks like a lock for 61 + this year. Still, as others here note, he can't be the only productive bat in the lineup and continue to see pitches to hit.

 

[hinson32]

Yes. Yanks need to sign him to long term deal to see if he can chase 700+ HRs.

Signing him long term is a big mistake. He is injury prone and not getting any younger.

 

[TheHall87]

Signing him long term is a big mistake. He is injury prone and not getting any younger.

Someone will throw eight to 10 years at north of $35 million per year at him.

 

[hinson32]

I think he'll resign here, if all things are equal or close to it. He's not going to give them a hometown discount, though. Similar situation as Jeter; despite how he may feel about Cashman or Steinbrenner now, there's still a lot to be said for being a part of the Yankee mystique and being in NYC. I think he understands that. I think his handlers also understand that marketing and branding opportunities will not be as lucrative or plentiful should he go elsewhere.

Judge needs to be paid market rate and he should be named Captain. Jeter was named Captain approximately 6-7 years from his debut. Judge will be entering his seventh season next year.

Imagine if he breaks the team HR record and walks? Cashman and Hal will need an armored car to travel around NYC in.

In today's media age, stars can make money

Someone will throw eight to 10 years at north of $35 million per year at him.

Agree, but whoever does is dumb and will regret it.

 

[TheHall87]

In today's media age, stars can make money

Agree, but whoever does is dumb and will regret it.

If he gives that someone six years of solid above average production and that teams wins a title or two, the last few years won't matter as much.

 

[hallstorm]

If he gives that someone six years of solid above average production and that teams wins a title or two, the last few years won't matter as much.

Big if on a 6’7” frame that’s had some injuries already.

Plus if the S&C coach (Eric Cressey) either leaves or Judge leaves to train and condition with anyone else, I wouldn’t feel too confident.

 

[hallgrad80]

It’s not the average annual salary that will be at issue but the number of years that Judge will want . The Stanton contract and its length is a classic example of why there is a high risk in giving out such contracts and to have a player getting $50 million a season and the odds of Judge being healthy and productive in the latter years of his contract are a long shot .

 

[bigraym]

Wouldn't Mr. Judge look outstanding in a Mets' uniform?

 

[TheHall87]

As a Met fan, I could certainly find a way to make room for Aaron Judge in my outfield.

As has been noted above by myself and others, I have serious concerns on what an Aaron Judge contract looks like beyond age 35. More so at the money he will be making -- and he's in the process for making himself ridiculously wealthy.

I think there's zero chance he signs a five-year contract and would be surprised at anything less then eight.

I'll add that Steve Cohen is starting to hint that the team is nearing the upper limits of what he believes is a reasonable payroll.

 

[SHUSA]

yankees actually are worried about contracts??

 

[TheHall87]

yankees actually are worried about contracts??

You're obviously not paying attention. The franchise is run more like a business than it was when George Steinbrenner ran things.

Without pretending to know what kind of revenue they bring in as opposed to expenses, I'd be surprised if they couldn't significantly add to payroll if they wished to. They've opted to keep payroll down relatively speaking so as to minimize their luxury tax hit.

 

[PirateFan94]

hell do it, but hell do it with a ton of legal (maybe illegal) substances and regimines that maris never had access to so yankees fans can argue about it for eternity.

Maris Also never faced pitchers throwing 100+ with wicked movement and an ever changing strike zone.
I truly don’t believe Judge is using PED’s. He’s just a large human.

 

[PirateFan94]

Wouldn't Mr. Judge look outstanding in a Mets' uniform?

🤢🤮

 

[PirateFan94]

On his current tear he may get to 70.

 

[Halldan1]

 

[Halldan1]

5 walks yesterday. And none of them resulted in his scoring.

Gonna be hard if no one pitches to him.

 

[TheHall87]

5 walks yesterday. And none of them resulted in his scoring.

Gonna be hard if no one pitches to him.

Not to drag this back into a Bonds/Judge debate but one of the remarkable things about Bonds' (tainted) achievements was the sheer number of walks he drew.

In 2001 Bonds hit 73 HR in 476 ABs and drew 177 BB (35 intentional). Judge with nearly a month left in this season is already at 489 ABs and has 85 BB (14 intentional which leads MLB).

Some of that is the difference in the way the game is played 20 years later but some is the unique approach taken to Bonds.

 

[PirateFan94]

5 walks yesterday. And none of them resulted in his scoring.

Gonna be hard if no one pitches to him.

I think he hit a HR in 6 of last 8 games. Even if he hits one in 50% of remaining games he’s close to 70.

 

[Halldan1]

Odds Aaron Judge breaks Yankees’ 61-year-old home run record

Aaron Judge is having a monstrous season, but what are the odds that he swats 62 and passes Roger Maris for the Yankees single-season record?

nypost.com

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Odds Aaron Judge breaks Yankees’ 61-year-old home run record​

By Michael Leboff, Action Network

The Yankees still have plenty of work to do as a team to wrap up the AL East, but that’s just one of the big stories surrounding the team as we head down the stretch.

Aaron Judge, the -1100 favorite to win MVP, is sitting on 55 home runs, and has a chance to break Roger Maris’ 61-year-old record for most dingers by a Yankee in a single season.

Maris accomplished the feat in the famous 1961 season where he and Mickey Mantle went toe-to-toe to break Babe Ruth’s record of 60 home runs in 1927. Ruth is the only other Yankee besides Maris to hit 60 long balls in a season. The Bambino also sits third all-time on the franchise list with a 59-homer season in 1921.

Bookmakers have got in on the Judge Hysteria, posting odds on whether or not Judge will surpass Maris and hit 62 home runs this season.

Caesars currently has the odds set at -160 that Judge hits over 61.5 home runs and becomes the new record-holder. The under is juiced at +130. According to implied probability, which takes moneyline odds and converts it to a percentage, bookmakers are implying that Judge has roughly a 61.5% of setting the record.

The Yankees have played 138 games this season, meaning Judge needs to go deep seven more times in the final 24 contests to nudge past Maris. Twelve of those 24 games will come at homer-happy Yankee Stadium, but Judge doesn’t have any drastic home-road splits. He’s gone deep 29 times in the Bronx and 26 times on the road this season.

Judge is currently on pace for 64.5 home runs and has hit four over the last seven days and seven of his last 28. If he keeps chugging along at that rhythm, he’d clear Maris with some time to spare.

From a betting standpoint, props like these are more about having some fun than anything else. It’s hard to find +EV (positive expected value) in a market like this (especially if you’re a fan and want to back Judge) and the Over will always be inflated because the folks who are going to bet into this prop are likely Yankee fans who want a little bit of a sweat as they root on Judge.

 

[Halldan1]

2 more tonight

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