Yet another conference realignment proposal - This one seems different.

[CL82]

While SEC and Big Ten leaders mull major changes, a new Super League concept could radically alter college sports

As SEC and Big Ten leaders prepare to meet this week in Nashville for a historic summit of the industry’s two powers, there is an unreported undercurrent driving the discussion: Project Rudy.

sports.yahoo.com

This one feels different mostly because it's not being proposed by have not schools trying to worm their way into a better situation. This one has the top 70 football schools forming a new "league" instead of a new conference. They would then only schedule games against each other. Theoretically, existing conference structures would not change. Private equity would pay them upfront to buy out any schedule games that did not meet the model and then would own the new "league" and retain 5 to 12 1/2% of the profit after guaranteeing league members a defined amount of money annually.

What would be the fallout from this? Is it the first shoe dropping of a breakaway from the NCAA? Is it a de facto decoupling of football and basketball which ultimately results in basketball being valued separately, which would be a good thing for us? Or is it just the latest private equity attempt at a money grab of the inherent value in college football?

 

[hallgrad80]

During the end stages of my career “ Risk Management “ became an integral part of our decision making and it became an important asset for us. My hope is that the BE’s Commissioner and her staff are aggressively planning how the Conference can not only survive and prosper in a constantly changing environment in college sports today and how to deal with the threats the Big East will likely face.

 

[knowknow456]

The Power 5 Football schools are leaving the NCAA and forming their own 32 team organization. There will be four conferences with 8 teams each - North, South, Midwest & West. The draft 32 are as follows:

North - Clemson, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Miami, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Penn State

South - Alabama, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Midwest - Michigan, Ohio St., Notre Dame, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas

West - Washington, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, BYU, Arkansas

I posted this in April. I believe this is where we will end up. It's just a matter of time

 

[SHUSource]

Ah, they're getting so close to where it's ultimately headed that they can almost see it. So of course football is going to break away independent of the current leagues, but it isn't going to include any 70 teams. Looking at it strictly from a media value point of view, which of course is the only way they're looking at it, there is so much noncontributing dead weight in this plan. You will see something like this, but with no more than 28 or 32 programs, made up entirely of national football brands who can carry weight across any geography or media markets. Physical geography means little anymore. Think of the NFL, but with college teams. It doesn't matter where those teams are located. There is no way Alabama and Ohio State and Texas are splitting they revenue they are bringing in with the current weak sisters of their respective conferences. If the entire purpose is to maximize annual revenue -- and it clearly is -- why would they?

 

[The SHUttle]

Ah, they're getting so close to where it's ultimately headed that they can almost see it. So of course football is going to break away independent of the current leagues, but it isn't going to include any 70 teams. Looking at it strictly from a media value point of view, which of course is the only way they're looking at it, there is so much noncontributing dead weight in this plan. You will see something like this, but with no more than 28 or 32 programs, made up entirely of national football brands who can carry weight across any geography or media markets. Physical geography means little anymore. Think of the NFL, but with college teams. It doesn't matter where those teams are located. There is no way Alabama and Ohio State and Texas are splitting they revenue they are bringing in with the current weak sisters of their respective conferences. If the entire purpose is to maximize annual revenue -- and it clearly is -- why would they?

I don't follow this closely at all, but there is no way for them to de-link themselves due to existing media deals if they want this to happen any time soon. I do think adding an element of relegation risk & promotion opportunity for those outside this league would be a way to bring them along while keeping some value on the games between Vanderbilt and Boston College. They'd probably look at some multi-year results factor in relegation rather than single year as a way to protect themselves from a disastrous campaign.

 

[SHUSource]

I don't follow this closely at all, but there is no way for them to de-link themselves due to existing media deals if they want this to happen any time soon. I do think adding an element of relegation risk & promotion opportunity for those outside this league would be a way to bring them along while keeping some value on the games between Vanderbilt and Boston College. They'd probably look at some multi-year results factor in relegation rather than single year as a way to protect themselves from a disastrous campaign.

They can't just unlink themselves, but in about 10-12 years, I believe all the current deals will have expired. That's about when I figure it'll be, since they are not waiting 20 more years to do this. (It can be even sooner if the private equity money is used to buy out contracts. I have no idea if it's worth that much to them.)

It's most certainly going to happen; the question merely resides in just how exclusive exclusive will be.

 

[HALL85]

The LIV version of the NCAA. Its inevitable.

 

[TheHall87]

The ACC deal runs through 2036 although there are reports that ESPN holds the option to continue the deal beyond 2027.

The next longest deal among the P4 football leagues is the SEC's which expires in 2034.

Florida State, ACC fight: ESPN have option to end deal in 2027, document shows

ESPN appears to have an option to end the ACC’s media rights deal in 2027, according to a document released by Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody. Although t

www.si.com

 

[The SHUttle]

They can't just unlink themselves, but in about 10-12 years, I believe all the current deals will have expired. That's about when I figure it'll be, since they are not waiting 20 more years to do this. (It can be even sooner if the private equity money is used to buy out contracts. I have no idea if it's worth that much to them.)

It's most certainly going to happen; the question merely resides in just how exclusive exclusive will be.

It would have to be a very large multiple on the contract to get one of these low on the totem pole colleges to effectively give their football program the death penalty. I don't see that happening.

 

[hinson32]

Ah, they're getting so close to where it's ultimately headed that they can almost see it. So of course football is going to break away independent of the current leagues, but it isn't going to include any 70 teams. Looking at it strictly from a media value point of view, which of course is the only way they're looking at it, there is so much noncontributing dead weight in this plan. You will see something like this, but with no more than 28 or 32 programs, made up entirely of national football brands who can carry weight across any geography or media markets. Physical geography means little anymore. Think of the NFL, but with college teams. It doesn't matter where those teams are located. There is no way Alabama and Ohio State and Texas are splitting they revenue they are bringing in with the current weak sisters of their respective conferences. If the entire purpose is to maximize annual revenue -- and it clearly is -- why would they?

Hard to believe otherwise. However all 28-30 brands are what they are due to 4-8 wins against the less popular schools each year . Under a NFL model there will be very unhappy "brand " schools who depend on winning for donations going 2-10. The alumni will not like that.

 

[HALL85]

Hard to believe otherwise. However all 28-30 brands are what they are due to 4-8 wins against the less popular schools each year Under a NFL model there will be very unhappy "brand " schools who depend on winning for donations going 2-10. The alumni will not like that.

Which means even more money.

 

[silkcitypirate]

I know one school who does not want to share (with any conference in football ), ND with their own TV deal .

 

[radecicco]

This ain’t happening.

 

[SHUSource]

It would have to be a very large multiple on the contract to get one of these low on the totem pole colleges to effectively give their football program the death penalty. I don't see that happening.

If it can't be worked out (one way or another), they'll wait out the contract. But this is most certainly the future, and it won't take more than 15 years, which is a conservative timeline.

 

[SHUSource]

Hard to believe otherwise. However all 28-30 brands are what they are due to 4-8 wins against the less popular schools each year . Under a NFL model there will be very unhappy "brand " schools who depend on winning for donations going 2-10. The alumni will not like that.

I think only the strongest programs -- including those with the strongest fundraising infrastructure around them -- are the participants. Success will be somewhat cyclical, as it is in the NFL, but that'll be the new normal. They'll be printing money and they won't care. Forget any similarity to what you know now.

 

[Bud Boomer]

The LIV version of the NCAA. Its inevitable.

Exactly. Let them leave. The football-only league will be an unwatchable, dollar store version of the NBA. The rest of us can get back to watching college hoops the way it was meant to be.