Wachtel Updates
- Thread starter Piratz
- Start date
Our future is in our hands and on Kadary's back ...
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If we are his last 4 in, i really struggle with how we are going to move the needle going forward especially if our remaining wins are Depaul 2x, Gtown, Butler, Nova (split) and Xavier. This would get us to 12 wins which i assumed was good enough. Based on Wachtel's analysis, i think we may need to get to 13 wins which would require a win at either St John's, Nova or Creighton.
Time to start taking care of business and scoreboard watching. The fact that we’re even in this position today is a small miracle.
For SHU its about wins. I believe The Big east gets 5 teams in. UConn being number one helps 12-8 with the wins we have is good enough .
Little is linear. Relies on what the others around us do too. The first thing is we have to ensure we don’t hurt the resume more.
***We really need to sweep DePaul and not lose at home again to any of Butler, Georgetown, or Xavier. That’s 5 wins. You may have some wiggle room with X as their metrics are decent.
***Then yeah, you’re going to have to do work now after we let the 5th Q1 win in Creighton slip out of our hands. Go get a couple of these: at Creighton, at Connecticut, at St. John’s, two with Villanova.
I’d feel pretty good ending the regular season 19-12, 12-8 and see what happens at MSG. But that’s the bare minimum.
The two home losses shredded our metrics, which were improving prior to those games. Not in a good spot right now with Kadary in limbo and squarely on the bubble.
It bears repeating: can't lose home games when you're on the edge. This season is going to come down to whether or not we take care of DePaul/Georgetown (avoid bad losses) and the teams we play at home (Butler, Xavier, Villanova). All of those games might be must-wins, absent a surprise win on the road elsewhere.
It bears repeating: can't lose home games when you're on the edge. This season is going to come down to whether or not we take care of DePaul/Georgetown (avoid bad losses) and the teams we play at home (Butler, Xavier, Villanova). All of those games might be must-wins, absent a surprise win on the road elsewhere.
Here's what left. We currently sit at No. 74 in the NET -- ninth of 11 schools.
1/30 - @DePaul - NET 301
2/7 - Georgetown - 183
2/11 - @Villanova - 43
2/14 - Xavier - 53
2/18 - @SJU (UBS) - 35
2/24 - Butler - 52
2/28 - @Creighton - 13
3/3 - @UConn - 5
3/6 - Villanova - 43
3/9 - DePaul - 301
We have to sweep the three with DePaul and Georgetown. Even wins will probably drop our NET. A loss to Georgetown will hurt, a loss to DePaul is a likely a mortal wound. You'd feel much better about that at 15-6/8-2 having banked wins over Creighton and PC at home. Oh well.
Sweep the home games. Wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova are wins bubble teams need to secure to help the cause. Those wins help the NET given each of those teams are currently more than 20 places above us in the NET.
That's 12 right there but be greedy and sweep both Villanova and SJU as well. Frankly, getting those two on the road to get to 12 is better than sweeping X, Butler and 'Nova at home. Those road wins are Q1s.
There's opportunity here: Four of the five road games are Q1 and three of the home games are Q2. I'd like our chances are 19-12/12-8 going in the BET if we could grab two of those Q1 road games. That scenario would have us 6-6 in Q1 2-5 in Q2 3-1 in Q3 and 8-0 in Q4. Even with one Q1 win, we're 5-7/3-4/3-1/8-0 at 19-12 entering the BET.
1/30 - @DePaul - NET 301
2/7 - Georgetown - 183
2/11 - @Villanova - 43
2/14 - Xavier - 53
2/18 - @SJU (UBS) - 35
2/24 - Butler - 52
2/28 - @Creighton - 13
3/3 - @UConn - 5
3/6 - Villanova - 43
3/9 - DePaul - 301
We have to sweep the three with DePaul and Georgetown. Even wins will probably drop our NET. A loss to Georgetown will hurt, a loss to DePaul is a likely a mortal wound. You'd feel much better about that at 15-6/8-2 having banked wins over Creighton and PC at home. Oh well.
Sweep the home games. Wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova are wins bubble teams need to secure to help the cause. Those wins help the NET given each of those teams are currently more than 20 places above us in the NET.
That's 12 right there but be greedy and sweep both Villanova and SJU as well. Frankly, getting those two on the road to get to 12 is better than sweeping X, Butler and 'Nova at home. Those road wins are Q1s.
There's opportunity here: Four of the five road games are Q1 and three of the home games are Q2. I'd like our chances are 19-12/12-8 going in the BET if we could grab two of those Q1 road games. That scenario would have us 6-6 in Q1 2-5 in Q2 3-1 in Q3 and 8-0 in Q4. Even with one Q1 win, we're 5-7/3-4/3-1/8-0 at 19-12 entering the BET.
Shaheen and Calipari now that’s interesting in of itself.
Fighting for our lives. That’s what a 2-3 slide will do with the 2 wins being Georgetown and DePaul. Now’s a good time for a hot steak again in these critical next 3 games.
Pretty harsh treatment. Triple ot loss to creighton and dropping 2 without big east player of the year.
We did rip uconn didn't we?
We did rip uconn didn't we?
This year is just about getting in. Seton Hall is likely going to get a decent draw as a 10, 11, or 12 seed. Anything can happen, just gotta get there.
I wasn’t aware Richmond was named POY.
SHU has a lot of minuses on the résumé to neutralize the win over UConn. You almost sound like Bobby G bragging about beating Florida.
Making the tournament is really hard. The competition for a bid is steep. And that’s before teams steal bids in conference tournaments. Unless things change, it’s going to really tough.
I’m with you…but can’t keep living off one game. It starts to sound like Gonzo with the “I beat Florida” stuff.
We need to win the games we are supposed to win, and maybe 1 or 2 (3?) tossups to get comfortably in the tourney
So you don't think Richmond was a legit poy candidate before he sat out? It was meant more of Hyperbole obviously..
He may or may not have been….. it was no sure thing, especially just seven games into a 20 game conference season.
we beat BUTLER at Butler why are they ahead of us , We SMASHED SJU finally they are below us
What would you call it?
OK let's just call him our best player. Lose 2 without him and a triple ot to top 20 creighton and you fall from consensus 8 seed to outside looking in?
Yup…. That’s exactly how it works.
Again, you have to realize how stacked the competition is for these tournament bids. It’s hard!
Wisconsin #11 ranked im AMERICA is now 16-8 1/2 game above us record wise and lost 4 straight..... what gives
They are in that “powerhouse” big 10. 🤪🙄
Butler has wins over top 50 teams Texas Tech and Boise State out of conference. Seton Hall has zero notable non-conference wins. In conference, they've won at Marquette and at Creighton. Bigger than any road wins Seton Hall has. They also beat Providence at home today, which Seton Hall failed to do.
Garbage to have butler as a 9 seed and us as an 11. Just like every game at this point in the season…. Must win when they come to town
Providence played without Oduro today who was out expecting the birth of his child. Averaging 23 & 10 over their last 4 games. Good win for Butler.
There are 6 teams in the BE who have similar resumes. So not only is it key for us to win to improve our profile, we also need to make sure our resumes are clearly better than Butler, Providence, StJohns, Xavier & Nova - all between 43 and 56 in the NET.
And we thumped them at their home where they never lose. Head to head where it really should count instead of these stupid metrics
i must have missed that. any more info on him sitting out? what was the reason, did he just not feel 100% yet in his mind?
It's not about an individual game in a 30+ game season. It's about total body of work. You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the selection process.
If by thumped, you mean beat them by six, then yes we thumped them. In a game that we trailed with two minutes to play. And, they do have a better record than we do.
But the head-to-head thing means we should be seeded over UConn because we beat them head-to-head.
But we should also be seeded behind Rutgers and 9-15 Southern California because they have beaten us.
Many only seen to care about our ooc losses, which were underwhelming performances. That same team beat the crap out of uconn. Beat mq. Played cu to triple ot anf has won six other BE GAMES against better teams than we list to earlier. Three of whom get ncaa consideration and have better net than us.
Sometime logic suggests that this team has just gotten better. A person interested in having the best teams in the nation play in the tourney will understand that. The NET never will.
If we dont win a bunch of our remaining games. All for naught. If we do, screw the NET. And i think many on the committee will do just that. If not why not just pick and seed by NET.
