FWIW My Prediction:
Trump 297- Harris 241
Popular Vote- Harris 1.0%
Swings States (In order of certainty)
Trump: NC,GA,PA (Tipping Point),AZ,NV,WI
Harris- MI
Notable Swings:
NJ- Harris +10 (5.94% Swings to Trump)
NY-Harris +16% (7.0% Swing to Trump)
VA- Harris +5.0% (5.0 Swing to Trump)
Lots of information to support between a 3-4% swing nationally from 2020, in that environment I do not see how Harris can hold onto the the tightly contested swing states. It is possible that Trump's gains are disproportionally inefficiently distributed and like 2022 they will be in big blue states (NJ, NY, CA) which don't matter, and she can somehow hold on to the mid-west.
PA is the key state, and I don't see how if NY/NJ are moving that PA resists the trend and she is able to onto the 1.0% win Biden had in 2020. Demographics are similar in several key areas, there would have to be unique trends in PA for this to happened . For Harris to win PA, in my mind this will have to be true:
1) GOP erosion in the suburbs of Philly and Pittsburgh did not peak in 2020, and there are Trump 2020 voters who are now voting for Harris.
2) She will hold onto Biden's small but decisive real gains in the NE PA, and other areas among WWC voters from 2020. There will be no erosion against someone who was born in PA, and has been a figure in the Delaware Valley for 50 years.
3)Rural/WWC Trump friendly voters are going to stay home and not vote.
4) Turnout in Philly/Pittsburgh proper will exceed 2020 levels and the Trump shift among Black Men and Latinos is a mirage.
Luckily I do think we will know very quickly what scenario plays out; I predict will be know the winner by midnight.
