11 Big East wins = NCAA tourney?
- Thread starter newshu1
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Honestly there’s No chance 19-14 gets us in. We have 1 non conference win against a middle of the pack SEC team. Only thing that would get us in the conversation with 19 wins would be to split UConn, Marquette and Creighton.
Sure, I follow your logic. We would be right there, waiting on Selection Sunday. However, in what reality does this team win eleven conference games? I think 8-9 conference wins would be mighty impressive with this group. It is disheartening when the OOC portion of the schedule is over and I can’t see a realistic way we get into The Dance.
100% agree. The reality is that of our 4 losses, 2 of those teams probably won't make the tournament (Rutgers and Iowa). In addition, USC is not looking very good at this point, but they certainly can turn it around.
If we go 11-9, i think that would be very impressive, but unless some of those wins came against UCONN, Marquette and Creighton, we won't get in. For example, if our 11 wins were comprised of (2 Depaul, 2 Gtown, 2 Butler, 1 Nova, 1 Providence, 2 Xavier, 1 St John's), i am not sure there is a real quality win on our resume (of course that can change). If, however, 1 or 2 of those wins came against the Top 3, we might have a case.
I actually think we have a chance against Creighton at home. If you catch them on bad shooting night (and we have good Dawes), we might be able to beat them. Anyway, i just look at the way our schedule unfolds, and i see us starting in deep hole and not getting out of it. I really think we only end up with 7 or 8 wins. I hope i am wrong.
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Pirate Russ said a lot of what I might have.
Yes it's possible but I'd need to know more about where the wins come from. No wins from among UConn, Creighton and Marquette probably doesn't get us there. Give me two from that group -- especially one on the road and it's not out of the realm.
Six wins from Butler, DePaul and Georgetown plus five from Providence, St. John's, Villanova and Xavier without a top tier BE win and only one remotely significant non-conference win will probably be a tough sell.
Even with all that it's a ticket to Dayton for the First Four and three days of hearing about how (pick your mid-major) should have gotten in over us.
Would be close.Even 11-9 looks like a reach for this team until further evidence is demonstrated on the court.
22 wins means we win 15 conference games…. Going 15-5 in the big east would get us in. I’ll put money on the table for that
lol, 15-5 and we might win the Big East.
It was a 3-way tie at 13-5 when we won it in 2020.
19-14 puts us on the Bubble. Will depend upon the strength of other teams.
If the BE is as good as it's supposed to be, 11-9 might put us 5th which would be hard to keep out.
If NET rankings stayed the way they are today, our 20 Conference games would produce:
11 Quad 1 Games
5 Quad 2's
4 Q3/Q4 games.
Say we sweep DePaul & GTown, that would mean 7 Q1/Q2 Wins. Throw in another in the BET and you have 8.
If the BE is as good as it's supposed to be, 11-9 might put us 5th which would be hard to keep out.
If NET rankings stayed the way they are today, our 20 Conference games would produce:
11 Quad 1 Games
5 Quad 2's
4 Q3/Q4 games.
Say we sweep DePaul & GTown, that would mean 7 Q1/Q2 Wins. Throw in another in the BET and you have 8.
Well give metrics of what a bubble looks like, what qualifying data others have. OOC was a sham.
11 conference wins?? I'll want some of what you're smoking---
aaaaand now we have the wild pendulum swing in the opposite direction.
Let's just concentrate on one game at a time. Bring passion to each game and don't look ahead. Can we catch UCONN looking ahead to the holidays after a long and successful OOC schedule? We can only hope. Worry about future games and potential W's/L's when we get there. Let's channel positive mojo on the Huskies.
LOL, I don't think anyone here projected 11 wins. The question was does 11-9 get us in after an unspectacular OOC performance. Answer is maybe.
Not necessarily though in that scenario it means going to the BET semi-finals.
The magical record that would guarantee us (or any P6 school) a bid is far better than 19-14. How you get to your record matters much more than the record itself. Our current NET is 95 which is well beyond the typical cutoff point (and to be clear we'd probably be around 60 under that scenario (last year we were 77).
Our only notable OOC win is against Missouri whose current NET is 98. The worse case scenario is sweeps of Butler, DePaul and Georgetown with four wins from among Providence, SJU, Villanova and Xavier and no wins against Creighton, Marquette and UConn. Add in a meaningless win against the BE 10/11 seed and a win over the BE 2/3 seed in the conference tournament and there's not much there. In fact it's possible there are no Q1 wins until that second BET game.
Two years ago, Texas A&M entered the SEC Tournament 20-10 (9-9) won three games to get to the SECT finals and lost to Tennessee. 23-12 (12-10) with a non-DI win got them a spot in the NIT. That was a season that saw six SEC teams make the tournament -- all seeded six or better.
Texas A&M's end of season NET was 36 (which includes their NIT games) but on Selection Sunday they were 5-10 against Q1 and 4-0 Q2 wins. Their best regular season win was a road win over Alabama and their only other regular season top 50 with was against Notre Dame -- by far their best OOC win. They did beat Auburn and Arkansas in the SECT before bowing out to Tennessee in the finals. All three of those teams were AP top 15 at the time.
At 19-14 and 12-11 with a BET semi-final appearance, there's a good chance we wouldn't be close to Texas A&M's resume.
At this point we’ll be lucky for an NIT invite. Sorry, just being honest.
I’m with you on this but honest question, has the program ever in your fandom been in a place where you have been happy?
Agreed. I think 16-15 (9-11) and on the NIT bubble would be satisfying given the current state of this team.
Of course, we would be far from the worst team to have a miraculous turnaround during conference play. I think by the end of the Georgetown game on Jan 9 we’ll know wether that’s even remotely possible.
So one of the total of 3 good games he’ll likely have the rest of the season has to come against Crieghton. Got it. He’s basically good for 1 of every 6 games.
im not happy or sad. im just wondering how we think this team gets 11 wins. a shu tourney run would be nice and i havent been alive to see one if that answers your questino.
yea im wrong lol. im not younger than 24. but you get the point. never got to actually witness shu do anything in the dance.
This seems kinda sad dude. I have enjoyed some really great moments watching SHU during my lifetime - and many of those are not SHU Tourney related.
I’m in the same boat as you. The 2018 free throw contest against NC state is the only SHU tourney win I’ve witnessed in almost 20 years of being a fan.
Sure there’s been some great moments outside the tourney, but in my book, a sweet 16 run would trump all of them.
This is not looking so ridiculous after tonight. There is a chance after all. Great win!
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