A ray of hope about the coronavirus
- Thread starter Halldan1
- Start date
Where are you getting your numbers? SKorea is reporting .7%.
The problem with all the numbers is that we are only recording people who are tested. We are only testing people who are symptomatic and even the not all...mostly the ones with severe symptoms.
I currently have cold like symptoms and saw Dr who didn't feel it necessary to test because the treatment would be the same unless I became severely ill. How many cases are there like this wr don't know about and don't get factored into the numbers. Their numbers also don't take into account true cause of death, only that they died and tested positive for Corona. The fact is the people who are dying from this are elderly with compromised immune systems. That said even with all the sever cases of high risk patients 97% survive.
That is not a true fact, may be more the case in Italy but in the USA deaths are happening to those under 65
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
Of the 364,942 tested - 9,241 people were confirmed to have the virus. - 2.5%
Of the 9,241 people who tested positive, 131 have died. - 1.42%
There are also 60 people in critical / serious condition. Their mortality rate is likely to go up if anything as the number of new cases each day is fairly low.
Up until about a week ago, there was some correlation between cases and deaths. The percentage was alarmingly high, meaning if you were sick enough to get tested, you were dying at a pretty high rate.
Now that testing is increasing, positive cases are increasing as well, so the death percentage is decreasing. Unfortunately, in the short term, it will be harder to understand just how deadly this thing is. For a little perspective, if we have 1,150 deaths (today's number) and the death rate is equal to the flu (.1%) there are 1,510,000 cases out there.
Note my original post listed the death rate at .01%.
Now that testing is increasing, positive cases are increasing as well, so the death percentage is decreasing. Unfortunately, in the short term, it will be harder to understand just how deadly this thing is. For a little perspective, if we have 1,150 deaths (today's number) and the death rate is equal to the flu (.1%) there are 1,510,000 cases out there.
Note my original post listed the death rate at .01%.
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I haven't found any published data, but have polled multiple hospitals as I am speaking with them because, IMO, it's the most important....since overwhelming the healthcare system is the biggest risk factor. So far, even in the NYC hospitals, they are far from being overwhelmed by COVID patients. One felt they were 8-10 days from seeing the curve start to decline.
It is remarkable to see the impact on hospital traffic and utilization. Elective surgeries are nil, , and ER volume is down dramatically as well (a combination of hospitals discouraging the use - directing people to urgent care centers, fewer traumas - fewer car accidents and late night violence). We have two different businesses that are directly related to census and our shipments are down 40% over the last two weeks.
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So far the estimates I have seen put hospitalizations somewhere between 10-15% of those infected and about 3% needing an ICU bed.
Those numbers should improve as we expand who we are testing but another 8-10 days before the curve starts to bend seems like it could get really bad, really quickly no? Cases in NY have been growing by about 40% per day. If hospitalizations are anywhere 10% of new cases in the next week, yikes...
Those numbers should improve as we expand who we are testing but another 8-10 days before the curve starts to bend seems like it could get really bad, really quickly no? Cases in NY have been growing by about 40% per day. If hospitalizations are anywhere 10% of new cases in the next week, yikes...
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