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As I see it

Halldan1

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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Since there are no Big East games today we can start the debate a day early.

1. Villanova 20-3 - Back where they always seem to be.
2. Xavier 21-2 - Slipped a little this week with mediocre play.


3. Seton Hall 17-6 - Yeah it's February, so what!
4. Providence 18-6 - Is the stress on Bentil and Dunn catching up to them?


5. Butler 16-7 - Back on track?
6. Creighton 15-9 - Hard team to figure.
7. Georgetown 13-11 - What's missing?


8. Marquette 15-9 - Still can be scary with the twin towers.


9. DePaul 8-15 - Thank God for......


10. SJU 7-17 - 2016/17 can't come too soon for Mullin.
 
I think Butler has a more balanced attack and better coaching than Providence.
I think the PG that Butler lost for a few games is now returning.
I think Butler will pass Providence and give SHU a run for 3rd place.
I think top 5 in BE will go to NCAA.
 
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Agree on the order...3-7 close in talent but SHU showing they are mentally tougher the last few weeks.
 
I think we may have a chance to crack the top 25??? Frank


Go Pirates! Bring on Butler. We're playing at a decent time for a change. I expect a large crowd.
 
I spoke to Jerry Carino after the game. He has a top 25 vote and will probably have the Hall around 24-25. He said in his opinion Providence will still be in the poll because it's rare for the # 11 team to drop out even with two losses. I added that Bentil's injury might also be taken into consideration.

My take, we'll be in the 26-30 range Monday. And I'm fine with that.
 
If this is based on conf play than you can't put Butler ahead of Gtown or Crwighton because 4 of their 5 are against DePaul & St. John's. However, they have seemed to right the ship. Huge game on Wed.

1. Nova
2. X

3. Prov
4. Hall

5. Gtown
6. Butler
7. Creighton
8. Marquette
9. DePaul

10. St Johns
 
mjs428 said:
If this is based on conf play than you can't put Butler ahead of Gtown or Crwighton because 4 of their 5 are against DePaul & St. John's. However, they have seemed to right the ship. Huge game on Wed.

1. Nova
2. X

3. Prov
4. Hall

5. Gtown
6. Butler
7. Creighton
8. Marquette
9. DePaul

10. St Johns
Click to expand...
It's not, that's why I have the season's records next to the team's name. It's like it's been since December, based on the year to date. Otherwise you could basically just post the conference standings.
 
mjs428 said:
If this is based on conf play than you can't put Butler ahead of Gtown or Crwighton because 4 of their 5 are against DePaul & St. John's. However, they have seemed to right the ship. Huge game on Wed.

1. Nova
2. X

3. Prov
4. Hall

5. Gtown
6. Butler
7. Creighton
8. Marquette
9. DePaul

10. St Johns
Click to expand...
Funny, you couldn't have one school so high due to their be record, but you could have another school ahead of the team that has the better record and a win in head to head.

Personally, I like BU and think they are a more complete team than PC but I expect PC to get back on track when Bentil heals. I see these five as ncaa teams.
 
Last edited:
I'm assuming you're talking about SH & Prov. if the ncaa tourney started today, who has the better seed?
 
1) Villanova
2) Xavier

3) Providence
3) Seton Hall
Very close here

5) Butler
6) Georgetown
7) Creighton

8) Marquette

9) DePaul

10. St. John's

As of now, only 4 teams deserve NCAA bids.
 
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1 - Villanova
2 - Xavier

although I think this changes after the rematch

3 - Seton Hall
4 - Providence
5 - Butler - point guard is back. HUGE game wednesday
6 - Creighton
7 - Georgetown
8 - Marquette
9 - DePaul
10 - St. Johns
 
I think we're better than Providence. We are becoming clear choice for 3rd best team in Big East. Hard to get a read on Butler. I think they'll be a tough out down the stretch.
 
Hall91 said:
I think we're better than Providence. We are becoming clear choice for 3rd best team in Big East. Hard to get a read on Butler. I think they'll be a tough out down the stretch.
Click to expand...

They have a generally weak inside presence. Let's beat em up in the paint and on the glass.
 
SPK145 said:
1) Villanova
2) Xavier

3) Providence
3) Seton Hall
Very close here

5) Butler
6) Georgetown
7) Creighton

8) Marquette

9) DePaul

10. St. John's

As of now, only 4 teams deserve NCAA bids.
Click to expand...

Agree with Steve's groupings and on the closeness of the PC/SH ranking but think the game against PC is on our home court gives us a small edge.
 
I just want to keep playing hard and win games. It's that simple. We have to be careful once again
with being a top 25 team and all that jazz. Once that happens the media attention can start
to distract individuals. We can't have that this time.

I understand this particular post is about the conference as a whole. I think SHU should approach it
as Nova and Xavier are top 2. We want to be better than everyone else. That means much more
hard work and closing the season the right way. Beating Xavier at home is a great opportunity to
help our resume. Maybe we get another chance at Nova in the BE Tournament.
 
1. Villanova
2. Xavier

3a. Seton Hall (trending up)
3b. Providence (trending down)

5. Creighton
6. Butler
7. Georgetown
8. Marquette

9. DePaul

10. St. John's
 
National top 5 teams
1. Nova.
2. Xavier

Solid tourney lock
3. Providence

Looking good to make tourney
4. Seton Hall

Wrong side of the bubble:
5. Butler
6. Creighton
7. Marquette
8. Georgetown

Bad teams:
9. DePaul
10. St. John's.
 
ncaaball2 said:
National top 5 teams

Solid tourney lock
3. Providence

Looking good to make tourney
4. Seton Hall
Click to expand...


I respect your opinion but have one question.

Why is Providence a solid lock and SHU looking good?

RPI
Providence 32
Seton Hall 35

Kenpom
Seton Hall 30
Providence 50

Result
Seton Hall 81 Providence 72 at the Dunk

League record
SHU 7-4
Providence 6-5

Overall record
Providence 18-6
Seton Hall 17-6

Seems like both teams are looking good but not solid locks.
 
Part of it is perception. Providence has been in the top 20 since thnksgiving, with some time in the top ten. I don't think they are going to fall out of the top 45 at large candidates. While seton hall is viewed as a team clawing their way into the mix. But in terms of hard numbers.

Out of conference, PC beat Arizona, and only lost to Michiga State. That looks better than a home win against wichita state (and I know they weren't at full strength prior to playing you) with a loss against long beach. It might only be a slight edge, but it is an edge nonetheless.

But most importantly in terms of why I think PC is safe is that if they find themselves on the bubble, they have already accomplished so much in terms of what will give them a bid.

what are some of theX factors for bubble teams? Big wins. Road wins. Providence right now has 6 top 100 wins away from home. That's incredibly impressive. If they find themselves on the bubble, that is something other bubble teams won't be able to touch. They also have a road win at #1 in the rpi. That alone is generally a huge asset for a bubble team.

It's not so much me saying that PC is clearly better than shu. But rather PC has enough on their resume that if they find themselves on the bubble they have things that would compare favorable to other bubble teams.
 
Fair points, but the season is far from over. And based on the factual data I posted their resumes to date are nearly the same. Included in those resumes is a semi-dominating away win for the Hall over Providence, with a return game at the Rock where the Hall will be favored.

Further, when today's polls come out clearly the two teams will only be separated by a few spots with (and this is important to the selection committee) the Hall trending upward as the regular season nears its conclusion and the Friars going in the opposite direction.

I don't think with each team having 7 more games to go that either is a lock. I do think that both have a very good chance to Dance at this time. But with that said they each still have work to do.


Kenpom with their predictions.

SHU

Wed Feb 10 40 Butler W, 78-72 70 70% Home

Wed Feb 17 60 Georgetown L, 71-70 69 47% Away

Sun Feb 21 252 St. John's W, 77-65 74 87% Away

Thu Feb 25 50 Providence W, 73-67 71 73% Home

Sun Feb 28 18 Xavier W, 77-75 73 56% Home

Wed Mar 2 40 Butler L, 76-73 70 39% Away

Sat Mar 5 156 DePaul W, 73-67 69 74% Away

5 and 2 down the stretch with the 2 losses by a combined 4 points




Providence

Wed Feb 10 109 Marquette W, 71-70 72 53% Away

Sat Feb 13 60 Georgetown W, 72-67 69 69% Home

Wed Feb 17 18 Xavier L, 79-70 72 20% Away

Thu Feb 25 30 Seton Hall L, 73-67 71 27% Away

Sat Feb 27 156 DePaul W, 75-63 69 88% Home

Wed Mar 2 46 Creighton W, 75-72 72 64% Home

Sat Mar 5 252 St. John's W, 74-65 74 82% Away

5 and 2 down the stretch with the 2 losses by a combined 15 points. Including another one against SHU.
 
Georgetown has the toughest schedule . They should win the St.John's and Marquette game . But Georgetown has to play Seton Hall again ,Providence ,Xavier, Butler, Villanova .
 
Izo said:
Georgetown has the toughest schedule . They should win the St.John's and Marquette game . But Georgetown has to play Seton Hall again ,Providence ,Xavier, Butler, Villanova .
Click to expand...

Mon Feb 8 252 St. John's W, 79-63 72 93% Home

Sat Feb 13 50 Providence L, 72-67 69 31% Away

Wed Feb 17 30 Seton Hall W, 71-70 69 53% Home

Sat Feb 20 18 Xavier L, 76-74 70 44% Home

Sat Feb 27 40 Butler W, 75-73 67 58% Home

Tue Mar 1 109 Marquette L, 71-70 70 49% Away

Sat Mar 5 1 Villanova L, 74-61 65 9% Away
 
Kenpom is pretty good.

The thing that is more telling than his results is the margin/percentage. And this is where Seton Hall is very well positioned.

Kenpom has Seton Hall 5-2.
But of the five wins, four of them are in the 70% or greater probability. That means that four of them are pretty comfortable.
Of the two losses, one of them is almost a pick 'em.

So I view this as 4 comfortable wins, 2 toss up games, and 1 likely loss.


Providence is also listed at 5-2, but look at the percentages.
Of the 5 wins, only two are 70% are greater, the other 3 are more toss up games (although one is at 69%)
But the two wins are huge percentages against.

So I view this as 2 or 3 comfortable wins (the 69% game being the or), 2 likely losses, and 2 or 3 toss up games (the 69% game being the or).

From that view the Hall is in better position to actually hit their mark than PC.


Seton Hall's path to a winning record based off the advanced metrix has seemed likely for a couple of weeks now (I tend to use Sagarin more just because)
 
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If you mean lock, as in Providence doesn't need to win another game. That's obviously false. 18-14 and 6-13 against conference teams won't get them in.

Providence has 1 more win, a better SOS, and better wins (@#1 Nova, and neutral Zona) than we do.

Both teams have work to do. But Providence has slightly less work to do.
Providence might be in by just beating Marq, St. Johns and depaul and finishing 9-9. (21-11 after 1st round BET loss against 3 seed)
We need to beat St. Johns, Depaul and 1 maybe 2 teams with dan's computer #s 60 or better.
 
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