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As JP Pelzman sees it

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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The stop-and-start, COVID-ravaged Division 1 men’s basketball season of a year ago should be a distant memory, if the current college football campaign is any indication.

Through six-plus weeks (including a “zero week” of five games), not one FBS contest has been postponed or canceled. That is a far cry from the makeshift season of a year ago, when several individual college football games literally were wiped out within a few hours of their scheduled game times, and never made up, due to the virus.

However, there still have been coaches, including head coaches, and some players, including stars, who have missed gridiron contests because of positive COVID tests. That problem, especially the latter possibility of losing a player, still could loom large this winter over college hoops, which, obviously, has much smaller rosters and thus much less wiggle room than football.

Still, the year should be much closer to normal. With that in mind, and with Big East Media Day looming Tuesday, it’s prediction time.



1--Villanova

Once Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels chose to use their “super senior” seasons, Villanova immediately became the Big East favorite--nothing new there--and penciled itself in as a potential Final Four team. No, Gillespie may not be an NBA prospect, but he is everything you could want in a college point guard, and had he not suffered a torn MCL late in the regular season, the Wildcats could’ve been an NCAA title contender last season.

Samuels, Gillespie and 2 guard Justin Moore should be the mainstays of the offense now that big man Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is with the Oklahoma City Thunder. With fewer paint touches, this should look like even more of a traditional perimeter-oriented Villanova team.

X-Factor: Freshman Nnanna Njoku was Delaware’s Gatorade Player of the Year in high school and eventually could be the go-to guy inside. It would help if he at least could give an inside presence and a pick-and-roll option to set up ‘Nova’s usual sharpshooting.



2--Connecticut

I may have been overthinking it when I put Xavier in this slot (more on that in a bit) back in the summer. Yes, the Huskies lost James Bouknight, but they return everyone else of significance except reserve center Josh Carlton (3.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg), who transferred to Houston.

Coach Dan Hurley came up with his mantra for this season shortly after the disappointing end to last season. After R.J. Cole (12.2) departed with an ankle injury, the Huskies collapsed down the stretch in a Big East tournament semifinal loss to Creighton, and then UConn was drubbed by Maryland in the first round of the NCAAs.

Thus, the battle cry is “45:07,” which has been put on T-shirts and just about anything else you can think of in the Huskies’ lair, referring to the final 5:07 of the Creighton loss and the Terrapins’ game.

With super seniors Isaiah Whaley and Tyler Polley back and Akok Akok and Adama Sanogo again patrolling the paint both offensively and defensively, the Huskies should again be a tough, grind-it-out team on both ends of the floor.

Cole (38.6% from downtown) will be asked to supply the outside shooting, as will Polley (35.5). Bouknight (29.3) was not a help in this department, as good as he was at everything else.

X-Factor: Rahsool Diggins, a highly-rated point guard from Philadelphia, is expected to get the keys to the offense. If he can handle it, it would allow Cole (99 assists last season) to play off the ball more often.



3--Seton Hall

Outside shooting was one of the missing pieces for Seton Hall last season, as was dynamic point guard play. Coach Kevin Willard hopes to have solved both of those problems via the transfer market.

Jamir Harris (43.8% from 3 at American last season) is the zone buster the Pirates have lacked since Myles Powell’s junior season, and 6-6 Syracuse transfer Kadary Richmond should be able to both score and set people up. SHU’s third incoming transfer, South Florida’s Alexis Yetna, is expected to provide scoring inside and the ability to pick and pop as well, something Willard likes to utilize in his offense.

No, it won’t be easy replacing what current Milwaukee Buck Sandro Mamukelashvili brought to the table, but Jared Rhoden projects as the new go-to guy, and super senior Myles Cale again should provide sticky defense and slashing offense.

The Pirates are motivated by the NCAA at-large bid that sifted through the fingers down the stretch last season, and by bonding while practicing at different gyms while their flooded-out basement gym at Walsh has been unavailable recently. Players have said it has brought them together and Harris thinks it will make them a team of destiny.

X-Factor: Can Bryce Aiken stay healthy enough to provide 15-20 minutes of offense and ballhandling a game? The Pirates certainly could have used it from him last season. Aiken has looked good thus far in the summer and preseason.



4---St. John’s

If you want star power, this team has it. Julian Champagnie can score from three or off the bounce and can get to the line (and convert, to the tune of 88.7%). Point guard Posh Alexander lived up to the hype as a freshman by averaging 4.3 assists last season despite a thumb injury that hampered him down the stretch.

Beyond them, however, veteran coach Mike Anderson, like many coaches, churned the roster more than an NFL GM after the final preseason game.

But say this--nobody who left transferred up, and the Red Storm brought in several players who did just that, such as big man Joel Soriano (Fordham), and shooters Tareq Coburn (Hofstra) and Stef Smith (Vermont). All three should contribute, although Coburn can be very streaky (trust me on that one, I know it from experience).

As for the incoming power-conference transfers, Purdue’s Aaron Wheeler should provide bulk inside, and Rutgers’ Montez Mathis should thrive in a system better suited to his improvisational abilities. It's up to Anderson to blend all the newcomers with the holdover stars, but considering he has taken three other programs to the NCAAs, I wouldn’t bet against him.

X-Factor: Can St. John’s improve upon its 34.4 percentage from beyond the arc? That would be huge for its up-tempo style.



5--Xavier

The cliché is that it’s usually a good problem to have too much talent. But I really wonder how Xavier coach Travis Steele is going to keep everyone happy. There is only one basketball, after all, and the Musketeers have a lot of really good players, but no transcendent players.

Anyway, the best place to start is up front. Feeding the ball to Zach Freemantle (16.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg) is a smart move, and Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson also are double-figure scorers in the backcourt. Scruggs, a super senior, will play the point.

Steele, who might need to make the NCAAs to keep his seat from heating up, also brought in forwards Jerome Hunter (Indiana) and Jack Nunge (Iowa) via the transfer market.

Again, there is only one basketball, and Xavier has plenty of players capable of scoring. If Steele can manage that, and figure out the playing time, the Musketeers should break their recent NCAA drought. If not, well...

X-Factor: Guard KyKy Tandy put his name in the transfer portal and took it out, presumably for lack of interest. But if he can provide a spark off the bench, it will prove to a wise decision for everyone.
 
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