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flconticello said:
Respect your point. Then they should have done it for swine flu. 84 million in US alone. Corona? 128k worldwide. I'm not basing my opinion on media.i have a neighbor who's a Dr. When I asked him about it he rolled his eyes. Coroanaviruses have been around forever. If they called this the Wuhan Flu, no one
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Doctors can also be idiots.

https://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_06_22/en/

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0312-sitrep-52-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=e2bfc9c0_2

Day 52 of WHO monitoring each.
Swine flu - 52,160 confirmed cases - 231 Deaths.

Coronavirus - 125,048 cases - 4,613 deaths.

If you think those look similar, please take the red glasses off.
 
flconticello said:
Professionals estimate that in the end the numbers will look very similar to the flu.
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Citation please.

The lowest expectation I have seen so far has been .7% mortality which is still more than 7x that of the flu. Without containment we are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US and millions globally.
 
kniespolice said:
Disagree. 41 people have died (20 in one nursing home). The mortality rate on this is going to settle near flu. FL might not be saying popular stuff but hes going to be right.
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Seriously, what are you basing that on?
 
Merge said:
Seriously, what are you basing that on?
Click to expand...

As of this minute there are 1,832 confirmed cases in the USA, with 41 deaths, which is a 2.2% mortality rate. 20 of the deaths occured in a nursing home in Washington State, if we take those 20 out, and lets say 100 confirmed (I don't know the total in that nursing home but bet it was less than 100), then we are at 1,732 confirmed cases with 21 deaths which is a 1.2% mortality rate. When we take it one step further we all know there are many more people who have been exposed to the corona than are confirmed, let's even be very conservative and say an additional 5,000 in the USA, so 41 deaths for 6,832 cases would be .6% mortality rate. Realistically, there are probably hundreds of thousands who have it within the country right now, so I think its plain to see the mortality rate is in the vicinity of .04% range (assuming 100,000 infected which is still probably very conservative), slightly more deadly than the flu, but a minuscule number.

I feel for anyone who passes from this, just like I do for people who pass from the flu, but we don't shut down our country for the flu.
 
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Merge said:
Citation please.

The lowest expectation I have seen so far has been .7% mortality which is still more than 7x that of the flu. Without containment we are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US and millions globally.
Click to expand...
tIQTcSR0_400x400.jpg
 
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kniespolice said:
Disagree. 41 people have died (20 in one nursing home). The mortality rate on this is going to settle near flu. FL might not be saying popular stuff but hes going to be right.
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I would not be making any predictions either conservative or rash. I also would discount any "experts" that are making claims.

There is a lot about this virus that we don't know, but the steps taken (Containment and social distancing) are most appropriate. IMO, if there is a 1% chance that continuing on with sporting events, mass gatherings resulting significant casualties, then the precautions are worth it. I'm a diehard fan and disappointed as anyone, but we really need to have our priorities in order.

My concern is we start to get people acting ornery like we did during Hurricane Sandy. Granted we haven't lost power, but when you go through an extended time of uncertainty and having things taken away, people just start to do things they normally wouldn't think of. Add that more people will be glued to the TV and social media and we have the makings of some bad stuff.
 
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kniespolice said:
As of this minute there are 1,832 confirmed cases in the USA, with 41 deaths, which is a 2.2% mortality rate. 20 of the deaths occured in a nursing home in Washington State, if we take those 20 out, and lets say 100 confirmed (I don't know the total in that nursing home but bet it was less than 100), then we are at 1,732 confirmed cases with 21 deaths which is a 1.2% mortality rate. When we take it one step further we all know there are many more people who have been exposed to the corona than are confirmed, let's even be very conservative and say an additional 5,000 in the USA, so 41 deaths for 6,832 cases would be .6% mortality rate. Realistically, there are probably hundreds of thousands who have it within the country right now, so I think its plain to see the mortality rate is in the vicinity of .04% range (assuming 100,000 infected which is still probably very conservative), slightly more deadly than the flu, but a minuscule number.

I feel for anyone who passes from this, just like I do for people who pass from the flu, but we don't shut down our country for the flu.
Click to expand...

First off, you know that people in nursing homes also die from the flu right? Like they are counted in the mortality rate of the flu but you are arbitrarily excluding them from the coronavirus expectations.

The rest of your post is just based on your personal feelings and ignoring the data available to us at this point.
 
HALL85 said:
I would not be making any predictions either conservative or rash. I also would discount any "experts" that are making claims.

There is a lot about this virus that we don't know, but the steps taken (Containment and social distancing) are most appropriate. IMO, if there is a 1% chance that continuing on with sporting events, mass gatherings resulting significant casualties, then the precautions are worth it. I'm a diehard fan and disappointed as anyone, but we really need to have our priorities in order.

My concern is we start to get people acting ornery like we did during Hurricane Sandy. Granted we haven't lost power, but when you go through an extended time of uncertainty and having things taken away, people just start to do things they normally wouldn't think of. Add that more people will be glued to the TV and social media and we have the makings of some bad stuff.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%.
 
kniespolice said:
Disagree. 41 people have died (20 in one nursing home). The mortality rate on this is going to settle near flu. FL might not be saying popular stuff but hes going to be right.
Click to expand...
The mortality rate is only part of the problem. The communicability rate - and the resulting strain on our health care system - appears to be the much larger concern.
 
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Merge said:
First off, you know that people in nursing homes also die from the flu right? Like they are counted in the mortality rate of the flu but you are arbitrarily excluding them from the coronavirus expectations.

The rest of your post is just based on your personal feelings and ignoring the data available to us at this point.
Click to expand...

So you think there are only 1,832 people with the corona in the US? Ohio just said they believe there are already 100,000 with it in their own state.... and how many have died there?
 
Merge said:
Citation please.

The lowest expectation I have seen so far has been .7% mortality which is still more than 7x that of the flu. Without containment we are talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US and millions globally.
Click to expand...
The numbers are based on REPORTED cases which are skewed toward people who are hospitalized due to an illness and ultimately tested and confirmed. These are the most severe cases with people having high risk factors. 80% of the deaths were people over 70 years of age. Most under 20 don't even exhibit any symptoms and are never counted in the numbers. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
 
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kniespolice said:
Wow what a spread, 200,000 K to 1.7 million, they really have their accuracy down.
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Yeah, it's almost like it is still really early and they are using computer modeling to come up with their best estimates... Lets blame the computers!

.....
 
flconticello said:
The numbers are based on REPORTED cases which are skewed toward people who are hospitalized due to an illness and ultimately tested and confirmed. These are the most severe cases with people having high risk factors. 80% of the deaths were people over 70 years of age. Most under 20 don't even exhibit any symptoms and are never counted in the numbers. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
Click to expand...

No where in that article does it say that the mortality rate will end up the same as the flu. Please try again.
 
Merge said:
Yeah, it's almost like it is still really early and they are using computer modeling to come up with their best estimates... Lets blame the computers!

.....
Click to expand...

Why even put a number out there if you have no clue?
 
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kniespolice said:
So you think there are only 1,832 people with the corona in the US? Ohio just said they believe there are already 100,000 with it in their own state.... and how many have died there?
Click to expand...

Lets look at South Korea since they are actually testing people with no symptoms.

210k tests performed. 8,000 cases confirmed. 67 deaths.

That is a .84% mortality rate if none of those others confirmed die.

That is 10x the rate of the flu already.
 
kniespolice said:
Why even put a number out there if you have no clue?
Click to expand...

Yeah, why model anything really?
A hurricane might hit Florida or it might not. Can't possibly know exactly where it will hit days beforehand so why even try right?

You do realize their low estimate was really bad right?
But yea, lets write it all off because there is a broad range of outcomes based on the modeling.
 
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Merge said:
Yeah, why model anything really?
A hurricane might hit Florida or it might not. Can't possibly know exactly where it will hit days beforehand so why even try right?

You do realize their low estimate was really bad right?
But yea, lets write it all off because there is a broad range of outcomes based on the modeling.
Click to expand...

Maybe you will understand it better if the CDC says it. I will bold it for you as well to make it easier.

Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:

  1. We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).
  2. The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
  3. It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization [1][2].

A million, two million, ten million, twenty million people could have the virus in the US, and with 41 dead thats .0041%. The point is nobody knows how many are truly exposed to corona, but 41 have died, including 20 in a nursing home. Stop panicking and use your brain.
 
Merge said:
I’m not panicking. I just understand what I am reading.
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Did you read what I wrote? They cannot put a number on the mortality rate because they don't know how many actually have it. Do you understand this concept? Mortality rate doesn't mean diddly if a million people have it and 41 died.
 
Merge said:
I read what you wrote. I don’t think you understand what you read.
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Disagree, but keep your head in the sand. I am sure over a million people will die here in the US. When they don't you can move on to the next liberal panic of the day.
 
kniespolice said:
Disagree, but keep your head in the sand. I am sure over a million people will die here in the US. When they don't you can move on to the next liberal panic of the day.
Click to expand...
Merge dont bother with this poster he feels this is just a liberal, media agenda, doesnt think contracting this or passing this along would alter his life or others around him...head in sand along with fl
 
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I read what you wrote.
kniespolice said:
Disagree, but keep your head in the sand. I am sure over a million people will die here in the US. When they don't you can move on to the next liberal panic of the day.
Click to expand...

Again. Look at South Korea.
That is the best data available at this point as they are the only country that is testing people without symptoms and the mortality rate is already 10x that of the flu but you keep just replying based on absolutely nothing other than your opinion.

I do not expect a million people to die. I expect the measures we are taking and will continue to take will help reduce the potential... but it will be worse than the flu. ALL OF THE DATA so far supports that.
 
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flconticello said:
Once again, no data of facts to rebut anything I've posted. Live your life scared and feeding into the hysteria. H1N1 was far more deadly. 10 years later no one even remembers it infected 84 million Americans. We have 1800 cases of the wuhan virus. We did nothing then and yet we're freaking out over this. Give me 1 fact. 1 bit of data to justify this hysteria. Doubt you can.
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The facts remain with the CDC and WHO.

CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html

WHO: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

These are experts, not "experts". They are not infallible or perfect, but they are millions of times more qualified to analyze and advise on these matters than google sleuths. That is a fact. They have a lot of facts relating to CV. No one on this thread is suggesting panic or hysteria. The CDC and WHO are not suggesting panic and hysteria. They are recommending following guidelines and best practices to prevent the spread of the disease. It's prudence and caution, not panic and hysteria. We are seeing this play out in real time all over the world. Let's not be where Italy is right now.
 
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kniespolice said:
Disagree, but keep your head in the sand. I am sure over a million people will die here in the US. When they don't you can move on to the next liberal panic of the day.
Click to expand...

Trump is about to declare a national emergency in response to coronavirus. I guess he's full of liberal panic.

Coronavirus is not a political issue. It is a health issue. If we can collectively gain a few IQ points for a hot minute, that'd be great.
 
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Stevie_H said:
Trump is about to declare a national emergency in response to coronavirus. I guess he's full of liberal panic.

Coronavirus is not a political issue. It is a health issue. If we can collectively gain a few IQ points for a hot minute, that'd be great.
Click to expand...

Ive got the IQ points I need, I cited a very good website, you should try reading it.
 
kniespolice said:
Ive got the IQ points I need, I cited a very good website, you should try reading it.
Click to expand...


Here is the top of the page you linked:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT




It's great website for cherry-picking potentially dubiously sourced data that mostly focuses on mortality rates. A dated Worldometer website over the CDC or WHO? Tough call... Not exactly a checkmate moment.

I have a proposition for our CV-challenged crowd. I am going gather a group of 10 friends. We will binge watch Rescue Me, Chicago Fire, and other firefighter/Fire Department related TV Shows. We'll watch movies like Backdraft and St. Elmo's Fire (forget it, I'm rolling), etc. We will google like you've never seen all about firefighting. Then we'll set your residence on fire. In response, you can call me and my group of friends or the fire department to handle the fire. Let's see what happens.



Here is a better read

Amazon product ASIN 0190469412
I will personally buy and ship you a copy. Honest offer. Just say the word.
 
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Stevie_H said:
Here is the top of the page you linked:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT




It's great website for cherry-picking potentially dubiously sourced data that mostly focuses on mortality rates. A dated Worldometer website over the CDC or WHO? Tough call... Not exactly a checkmate moment.

I have a proposition for our CV-challenged crowd. I am going gather a group of 10 friends. We will binge watch Rescue Me, Chicago Fire, and other firefighter/Fire Department related TV Shows. We'll watch movies like Backdraft and St. Elmo's Fire (forget it, I'm rolling), etc. We will google like you've never seen all about firefighting. Then we'll set your residence on fire. In response, you can call me and my group of friends or the fire department to handle the fire. Let's see what happens.



Here is a better read

View embedded media


I will personally buy and ship you a copy. Honest offer. Just say the word.
Click to expand...

Cherry picking? Dubious? It has up to the second count. Maybe dubious since it doesnt fit the doom and gloom we're all ****ed narrative.
 
Merge said:
No where in that article does it say that the mortality rate will end up the same as the flu. Please try again.
Click to expand...
As an MIT PhD in Biological Engineering who studies & does research nearly every day on the Immune System, the #coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest fraud to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, & push MANDATED Medicine!

-shiva ayyadurai

Check out his Twitter
 
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flconticello said:
As an MIT PhD in Biological Engineering who studies & does research nearly every day on the Immune System, the #coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest fraud to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, & push MANDATED Medicine!
Click to expand...

Kaboom
 
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kniespolice said:
Cherry picking? Dubious? It has up to the second count. Maybe dubious since it doesnt fit the doom and gloom we're all ****ed narrative.
Click to expand...

That site is not a better resource than the CDC and WHO FOR ALL THINGS CORONAVIRUS in any way. Am I looking at the disease in a wider scope, not just death counts. I am not propagating a gloom and doom narrative. The CDC and WHO are not doing that as well. It's a serious situation requiring smart action. You don't know better than they do. None of us do.
 
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