Breakthrough Cases

[sami]

As Delta Surges, Covid-19 Breakthrough Cases Remain Uncommon — The Wall Street Journal

WSJ analysis finds higher risk of infection from strain, but research shows that vaccines still protect against most serious illness

apple.news

And let’s remember, 95% effective vaccines mean that there is a 5% ineffective rate, but people aren’t getting as sick. This article really puts it in perspective.

But our resident wacko will dispute this. Yes, breakthrough percentages are very low, even with delta. Yes, the number is likely higher than reported because breakthrough cases probably don’t get as sick and can confuse the 24 hour symptoms, if any, with the common cold. Yes, new variants might need boosters/annual “updates” like the flu shot (not in article).

Enough fearmongering in the media, but if you’re not sensationalizing, you’re not getting clicks.

 

[cernjSHU]

A friend of mine in Tennessee is one of those breakthrough cases. He got sick but credits the vaccine with helping him not have any serious effects.

 

[setoniansource]

I want to have a serious conversation about this and not get into a petty bsck and forth like we did in the other thread.

Given that people with covid spread it at the same level whether they are vaccinated or unvaccinated (hopefully we can agree on that) What percentage of vaccinated people need to have breakthrough cases before you’d agree that we either mask everyone or stop playing these games of vaccinated vs unvaccinated and just accept that vaccinated people nearly 100% of the time don’t go to the hospital and if someone is unvaccinated that was their choice and they accept the potential consequences? (Provided hospitals aren’t overburdened in the area)

 

[sami]

I want to have a serious conversation about this and not get into a petty bsck and forth like we did in the other thread.

Given that people with covid spread it at the same level whether they are vaccinated or unvaccinated (hopefully we can agree on that) What percentage of vaccinated people need to have breakthrough cases before you’d agree that we either mask everyone or stop playing these games of vaccinated vs unvaccinated and just accept that vaccinated people nearly 100% of the time don’t go to the hospital and if someone is unvaccinated that was their choice and they accept the potential consequences? (Provided hospitals aren’t overburdened in the area)

I still do not think that vaccinated people transmit at the same rate. My understanding is that the viral load in those vaccinated that have a breakthrough case is far less, hence the reduced severity of cases. Lower viral load would reduce transmission.

I don’t think everyone should be masked. I think people had the opportunity to make a choice on vaccination. I believe those who cannot make that choice, under 12, should consider masking for the period of time until the vaccine is approved.

There is no level of breakthrough rate that I believe we should go back to mask mandates, given that hospitals are not overwhelmed. If hospitals were to become overwhelmed, and let’s be honest, that would be predominantly unvaccinated, we’d probably have to go back to masks only because we aren’t marked and society would have to protect those who choose to not vaccinate and stress the hospital system.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

I still do not think that vaccinated people transmit at the same rate. My understanding is that the viral load in those vaccinated that have a breakthrough case is far less, hence the reduced severity of cases. Lower viral load would reduce transmission.

I don’t think everyone should be masked. I think people had the opportunity to make a choice on vaccination. I believe those who cannot make that choice, under 12, should consider masking for the period of time until the vaccine is approved.

There is no level of breakthrough rate that I believe we should go back to mask mandates, given that hospitals are not overwhelmed. If hospitals were to become overwhelmed, and let’s be honest, that would be predominantly unvaccinated, we’d probably have to go back to masks only because we aren’t marked and society would have to protect those who choose to not vaccinate and stress the hospital system.

Are Florida hospitals overwhelmed? 16,000+ and rising....

 

[setoniansource]

I still do not think that vaccinated people transmit at the same rate. My understanding is that the viral load in those vaccinated that have a breakthrough case is far less, hence the reduced severity of cases. Lower viral load would reduce transmission.

I don’t think everyone should be masked. I think people had the opportunity to make a choice on vaccination. I believe those who cannot make that choice, under 12, should consider masking for the period of time until the vaccine is approved.

There is no level of breakthrough rate that I believe we should go back to mask mandates, given that hospitals are not overwhelmed. If hospitals were to become overwhelmed, and let’s be honest, that would be predominantly unvaccinated, we’d probably have to go back to masks only because we aren’t marked and society would have to protect those who choose to not vaccinate and stress the hospital system.

The viral load is the same initially but goes away faster for vaccinated people (when people don’t know they are sick early on is obviously when spread will happen more).

we agree on the rest.

 

[Merge]

I want to have a serious conversation about this and not get into a petty bsck and forth like we did in the other thread.

Given that people with covid spread it at the same level whether they are vaccinated or unvaccinated (hopefully we can agree on that) What percentage of vaccinated people need to have breakthrough cases before you’d agree that we either mask everyone or stop playing these games of vaccinated vs unvaccinated and just accept that vaccinated people nearly 100% of the time don’t go to the hospital and if someone is unvaccinated that was their choice and they accept the potential consequences? (Provided hospitals aren’t overburdened in the area)

Provided hospitals are not overburdened (though they are in some areas), or trending that way, then I agree we don't need masks.

 

[cernjSHU]

Provided hospitals are not overburdened (though they are in some areas), or trending that way, then I agree we don't need masks.

But the question be should you wait until the hospitals get overburdened? ISn't it too late then? also, there is a state by state difference depending on the percentage of vaccinated people?

 

[HALL85]

But the question be should you wait until the hospitals get overburdened? ISn't it too late then? also, there is a state by state difference depending on the percentage of vaccinated people?

You don’t wait until they get overburdened, but you watch the data every day and have a plan in case.

 

[Merge]

But the question be should you wait until the hospitals get overburdened? ISn't it too late then? also, there is a state by state difference depending on the percentage of vaccinated people?

Yeah, that's what I meant by trending that way. The trend in Florida seemed clear to me a few weeks ago when hospitalized per 100k went from 14 to 30 in under 2 weeks. Now approaching 80.

They should have done something weeks ago to slow this down.

 

[sami]

Are Florida hospitals overwhelmed? 16,000+ and rising....

And if it’s determined that that number is overwhelming, then yes, Florida should have a mask mandate until that is checked. What part of my thinking disputes that?

 

[sami]

The viral load is the same initially but goes away faster for vaccinated people (when people don’t know they are sick early on is obviously when spread will happen more).

we agree on the rest.

Got it. I don’t know the exact science behind viral load, as I said I think.

But we have to learn to live with it like other infectious diseases. And yes, if enough people will not vaccinate and hospitals are stressed, sadly mask mandates are in order. Big difference between masks and shutdowns though.

 

[sami]

Yeah, that's what I meant by trending that way. The trend in Florida seemed clear to me a few weeks ago when hospitalized per 100k went from 14 to 30 in under 2 weeks. Now approaching 80.

They should have done something weeks ago to slow this down.

Governor Asshat

 

[setoniansource]

Another in-depth piece on breakthroughs

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/breakthrough-covid-19-cases-may-be-a-bigger-problem.html

 

[SPK145]

How come the media isn’t talking as much about Hawaii or Oregon or Louisiana who are all on the same trajectory as Florida? Could it be the the political party of the respective governors?

 

[shu09]

How come the media isn’t talking as much about Hawaii or Oregon or Louisiana who are all on the same trajectory as Florida? Could it be the the political party of the respective governors?

Of course.

 

[shu09]

The American public still has an informational disconnect when it comes to this. Polling shows Americans think you're far more likely to go the hospital and far more likely to die than what reality/statistics show.

18 months of panic and sensationalism will do that.

 

[SHUSA]

is Long Covid a real thing? sounds like another scare tactic buzzword but we always knew there were some long term effects from covid.

i think i have Long Brain Damage from my hangovers after age 25.

 

[Merge]

How come the media isn’t talking as much about Hawaii or Oregon or Louisiana who are all on the same trajectory as Florida? Could it be the the political party of the respective governors?

I saw plenty of stories about Louisiana.

Oregon, while trending the wrong way for sure isn’t ignoring the increase in hospitalizations and implemented new restrictions and didn’t threaten to sue school districts who may want to take additional precautions....

Not sure anyone has the same trajectory as Florida, as most governors would see their hospitals filling up and realize they should probably do something.

 

[SPK145]

I saw plenty of stories about Louisiana.

Oregon, while trending the wrong way for sure isn’t ignoring the increase in hospitalizations and implemented new restrictions and didn’t threaten to sue school districts who may want to take additional precautions....

Not sure anyone has the same trajectory as Florida, as most governors would see their hospitals filling up and realize they should probably do something.

Those 3 states with democrat governors had diametrically opposed responses/mandates, etc. to Florida yet are all trending just like Florida. All have high ICU usage and are still trending up.

Does it really matter what states do as much as we have been lectured?

 

[Merge]

Those 3 states with democrat governors had diametrically opposed responses/mandates, etc. to Florida yet are all trending just like Florida. All have high ICU usage and are still trending up.

Does it really matter what states do as much as we have been lectured?

Yes.

Each state has their own unique set of circumstances. What's works in one doesn't necessarily mean it will work in others.

The point is to understand the data and react to it.

No one is trending like Florida right now. They are the worst by a fair margin.

Oregon has 800 people hospitalized with Covid. Granted Florida is 5x larger... But 800 *5 is still a lot less than the 17k+ hospitalized in Florida right now.

 

[SPK145]

Each state has their own unique set of circumstances. What's works in one doesn't necessarily mean it will work in others.

Wow, I don’t believe you’ve ever mentioned federalism before. Keep the feds out of this, I agree. And remember your strong federalism lean here, should be used for many issues.

 

[SPK145]

Oregon has 800 people hospitalized with Covid. Granted Florida is 5x larger... But 800 *5 is still a lot less than the 17k+ hospitalized in Florida right now.

Oregon’s surge started a little later than Florida’s while having more restrictive mandates. Oregon has 74% ICU usage at this time while Florida has a 92% ICU usage. Oregon’s infection rate is higher than Florida’s.

 

[Merge]

Wow, I don’t believe you’ve ever mentioned federalism before. Keep the feds out of this, I agree. And remember your strong federalism lean here, should be used for many issues.

of course I have. I am very much in favor of state rights under federal regulations.

 

[Merge]

Oregon’s surge started a little later than Florida’s while having more restrictive mandates. Oregon has 74% ICU usage at this time while Florida has a 92% ICU usage. Oregon’s infection rate is higher than Florida’s.

Oregon doesn’t have nearly the capacity Florida has.

Florida has more than 15x the number of Covid patients in the ICU.
Oregon daily average of new cases adjusted for population is half of Florida’s.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Louisiana is a red state SPk. They've voted R in 9 of last 12 elections, none since Clinton in 1996. It's as deep south as they come. Their current dem governor is first since 1992.

As for the media I've read plenty of stories that negatively portray Louisiana with covid. Their vaccination status is horrible.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Dont Oregon and Hawaii have some of the lowest overall cases per 100K in the country? It's not surprising they have a "huge" percentage increase from delta when covid has been so low there.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Louisiana is a red state SPk. They've voted R in 9 of last 12 elections, none since Clinton in 1996. It's as deep south as they come. Their current dem governor is first since 1992.

As for the media I've read plenty of stories that negatively portray Louisiana with covid. Their vaccination status is horrible.

2 GOP senators...Casiddy at least being fair minded about it

 

[SPK145]

Louisiana is a red state SPk. They've voted R in 9 of last 12 elections, none since Clinton in 1996. It's as deep south as they come. Their current dem governor is first since 1992.

As for the media I've read plenty of stories that negatively portray Louisiana with covid. Their vaccination status is horrible.

The governor, who sets COVID policy, is a dem.

 

[SPK145]

Dont Oregon and Hawaii have some of the lowest overall cases per 100K in the country? It's not surprising they have a "huge" percentage increase from delta when covid has been so low there.

Both have higher infection rates than FL, the metric that many use to shut down like Murphy in NJ.

 

[Hallsome]

is Long Covid a real thing? sounds like another scare tactic buzzword but we always knew there were some long term effects from covid.

i think i have Long Brain Damage from my hangovers after age 25.

I think you do too.

only kidding

 

[shu09]

Their current dem governor is first since 1992.

Louisiana has had three D governors since 1992 (and two of the last three have been D's since 2004).

 

[shufan1993]

Louisiana is a red state SPk. They've voted R in 9 of last 12 elections, none since Clinton in 1996. It's as deep south as they come. Their current dem governor is first since 1992.

Huh? That last sentence is factually incorrect. A dem was a governor I Louisiana from 2004-2008. I miss the old Knies!

 

[Merge]

Both have higher infection rates than FL, the metric that many use to shut down like Murphy in NJ.

Here's the thing though. As the hospital systems started to get hit in those areas, the governors there decided they should do something to try and slow the growth in hospitalizations. In Florida, that didn't happen and the Governor was trying to sue school districts that want masks.

I get that you are trying to dunk on the media here for being inconsistent, but the states are just not comparable. Florida is in worse shape right now than any other state.

Yesterday Oregon admitted 93 new Covid patients.
Florida admitted 2,265

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Louisiana has had three D governors since 1992 (and two of the last three have been D's since 2004).

I missed that one, I stand corrected there.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Both have higher infection rates than FL, the metric that many use to shut down like Murphy in NJ.

Overall for the pandemic they rank 48th and 50th for total cases per 1 million people. See for yourself on Worldometers.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[SPK145]

Overall for the pandemic they rank 48th and 50th for total cases per 1 million people. See for yourself on Worldometers.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Aren't we only talking current situation though?

 

[SPK145]

I get that you are trying to dunk on the media here for being inconsistent, but the states are just not comparable. Florida is in worse shape right now than any other state.

That's my real point.

And you're still a douche, LOL.

 

[Merge]

Overall for the pandemic they rank 48th and 50th for total cases per 1 million people. See for yourself on Worldometers.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

He's talking about the current Rt rate.
Oregon is currently 1.29
Hawaii is 1.22
Florida is currently 1.13

Its relevant but not the most important metric in my opinion.

If 20% is currently infected and your rate is 1.1, short term that is worse than if 5% is infected and your rate is 1.3.

Need to look at the whole picture.

 

[SHUSA]

He's talking about the current Rt rate.
Oregon is currently 1.29
Hawaii is 1.22
Florida is currently 1.13

Its relevant but not the most important metric in my opinion.

If 20% is currently infected and your rate is 1.1, short term that is worse than if 5% is infected and your rate is 1.3.

Need to look at the whole picture.

where do u get live Rt from?