CBS: Big East Preview

[Halldan1]

2015-16 Big East predictions: Respect to Villanova, which is elite again

By Matt Norlander | Staff Writer


2015-16 Big East predictions: Respect to Villanova, which is elite again
By Matt Norlander | Staff Writer
October 27, 2015 12:55 pm ET

The Big East is still a major conference with major heft; don't let anyone else tell you otherwise. Between the coaching, the uptick in recruiting, the pedigree of programs and the fact this league sent six -- yes, that's right: SIX -- teams in the NCAAs last March, let's just move on from lamenting the Big East of old. That league, which helped build college basketball into a national sport and one of the most popular ones in America in the 1980s, is long dead. Burn the obits and accept what's now reality.

Because the new Big East is a different flavor, a different style but undoubtedly still a league capable of producing Final Four-quality teams. It also boasts a batch of rivalries that will keep it among the strongest conferences in the country. That strong 2014-15 (because the Big East sent six squads to the Big Dance) led to the conference landing at No. 3 in KenPom's ranking of the leagues, only falling behind the ACC and Big 12.

Predictions, breakdowns of the upcoming season

This year, expect a downtick, but not a drastic one. Getting five schools into the NCAAs is easily projectable, and in sizing up the league, even the teams that will finish 7/8/9 aren't going to be brutal. In our ultimate list, ranking every team in college hoops, the Big East has all of its teams ranked in the "top" 127, better than all other leagues. Thirty of 'em. Of course, having just 10 teams can help that cause.

Broadly speaking, here's what to know about this conference as we charge toward the season: Villanova's still really good; you're probably already underestimating Georgetown; St. John's has a new coach, a guy you're well aware of; Creighton's pretty underrated across the board, far as I can tell; oh, and Providence has the best player in the country. Hold up, I gotta repeat myself. Providence has the best player in the country.

Isaac Copeland is set to have a huge breakout season with the Hoyas. (USATSI)
This is the consensus Big East projection from our college hoops team at CBS Sports.

1.

VILLANOVA WILDCATS

Seton Hall (in overtime), Georgetown and North Carolina State (by three points) were the only teams to knock off Villanova last season. Jay Wright's team went 33-3 and was so underrated it disgusted me. Now, because Nova fell in the Round of 32 to NC State -- which sent Piccolo Girl into the Sports Meme Hall of Fame and gave her a blast of publicity -- the Nova doubters felt they were justified and proven correct. Not really. The NCAA Tournament doesn't necessarily confirm or deny season-long patterns. Last year's Wildcats will go down as maybe the most overlooked No. 1 seed ever. That is, unless this year's team -- which could be just as good -- makes another run at a 30-win season. And it's possible. Ryan Arcidiacono is the reigning Big East Co-Player of the Year. Daniel Ochefu is a monster. Jalen Brunson is an incoming freshman who will be a stud right away. I won't forget Josh Hart, who will probably be the biggest reason Nova wins two or three games this season that it otherwise wouldn't have. Wildcats are the clear-and-away favorite in this conference.

2.

GEORGETOWN HOYAS

Outside of Kris Dunn at Providence, if you're looking for a guy who will be do-it-all for a team in this league, D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera is it. Meaning he's the second realistic pick to win the league's POY, behind Dunn, for 2015-16. DSR had a 121 offensive rating last season; his command of the ball, reliable defense, improving jump shot and team leadership are critical to Georgetown's run to March. But know this: Isaac Copeland is the No. 1 breakout candidate in the conference this season. Casual fans aren't aware of Copeland's ability, but this time next year he'll be on the conference's preseason First Team. He averaged 6.8 points and 3.8 rebounds last season. Those numbers should bloat to 12 and 6 in 2015-16. John Thompson III has already lost Akoy Agau for the season, but overall the Hoyas should clear 20 wins without too much trouble.

3.

XAVIER MUSKETEERS

Went 9-9 in the league last season, and there's almost no shot that happens again. Kid Rock fanboy/Xavier coach Chris Mack -- looking like a "Justified" extra here -- has a team I think that's got the makeup of an Elite Eight dark horse. Trevon Bluiett started so strongly, but hit a freshman wall by February. Expect him to be better and more consistent. Jalen Reynolds, a 6-foot-10 guy who improves by the month, is going to be the second-best big in the conference this season. (I like Ochefu most, but Reynolds will do more across the board for X.) Remy Abell and Myles Davis will combo for a steady backcourt. And look for freshman Edmond Sumner to be a playmaker. Losing Matt Stainbrook is huge, but I like how X has balanced itself out here.

4.

BUTLER BULLDOGS

Here's how good I think the Big East can be this season. To me, Butler is clearly the No. 4 team in the conference; I put it a shade below Xavier. And still, Butler could lock in a No. 5 seed down the way. Good news for coach Chris Holtmann, good news for the league. Roosevelt Jones and Kellen Dunham will make for a stellar 1-2 duo. Both seem mortal locks to make Big East First or Second team; swap the names/flip a coin. Elsewhere: Jordan Gathers is a grad transfer from St. Bonaventure, nephew to the late Hank Gathers, a solid player who once did this. Andrew Chrabascz is Butler Player: Defined.

5.

PROVIDENCE FRIARS

We've been plenty complimentary of Mr. Kris Dunn. You can see my feature on Dunn linked above, and I highly recommend it because of the insight he gives as to why he came back when, in reality, he'd have been a top-12 pick in the draft. Beyond Dunn, though, here's what you need to know: Ed Cooley expects Rodney Bullock to be a big-time producer this season, and I expect that to come true. This team is SMALL but FAST. Very fast. I'd be shocked if Providence wasn't in the top 20 for tempo by season's end. Ben Bentil is the only real big PC has, and he's a good role player, but Dunn and Bullock will absolutely carry the load. Between the both of them: 40 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists per game? I think that's about it.

 

[Halldan1]

6.

MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES

Marquette is the last realistic candidate to expect to reach the NCAAs in the Big East this season, but I think NIT is much more likely. Name to know: Henry Ellenson who, I'm guessing, will be drafted into the NBA in 2017. (He could be one-and-done, but man it'd be really nice if he stayed for two.) Ellenson's a dynamic player with a beautiful blend of old- and new-school skills. Around him, Duane Wilson and Jajuan Johnson should have really solid years -- either player could wind up Big East Second Team come March. Luke Fischer is also a nice ingredient. Marquette's just not a program that stays down for long, and after a 13-19 season in Year No. 1 under Steve Wojciechowski, getting to/above .500 seems inevitable for 2015-16.

7.

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS

Creighton shouldn't be nearly as poor as it was last season, and the fact the Bluejays are slotted this low tells you the league is going to be as strong from top to bottom in 2015-16. Cole Huff, who sat out last season after transferring from Nevada, is going to be one of the biggest impact transfers in college hoops this season. Defense is still an issue but Creighton will likely score in bunches again.

8.

SETON HALL PIRATES

Kevin Willard is among the most prominent names on any preseason hot-seat list. He's entering year No. 6. He's yet to reach an NCAA Tournament, averaging 16 losses per season. Rare is the coach at a major-conference school who surives six season without at least one Big Dance trip. Not seeing that in fortunres for SHU come 2016, alas. Isaiah Whitehead is going to probably have a very nice year, but remember, this is a group that won just one game beyond Feb. 1 last season. And Sterling Gibbs is gone now too.

9.

DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS

Personally, I expect DePaul to make some progress this season, even though the school made the unusual choice of bringing in a former head coach. Dave Leitao is back, but he's got Billy Garrett, Jr., Myke Henry and Tommy Hamilton IV. All will be big factors in getting DePaul close to .500 this season. Garrett is a sleeper pick to make the Big East's First Team, but chances are that won't happen because A) DePaul won't be quite good enough to warrant it and B) Just look around at the talent in the league. Again, this is a very good conference.

10.

ST. JOHN'S RED STORM

Too many unknowns in the picture for St. John's, which made last year's NCAA Tournament but promptly fired Steve Lavin, lost maybe the best shot-blocker in Chris Obekpa, plus Sir'Dominic Pointer, Phil Greene and D'Angelo Harrison graduated. Rysheed Jordan left school in June to chase pro ball. It's completely different this season, and Chris Mullin is now the coach. Splashy hire, but let's see how it pans out. SJU will need at least two years of rebuilding before it can realistically start targeting a return to the NCAA Tournament.

This is how each of us at CBS Sports individually project the standings to shake out in the Big East.

 

[Halldan1]

BIGGEST MOVE FROM LAST SEASON: Overall, it's St. John's. The program has a lot of history and pride there, but let's be honest, it's been inconsistent and not nearly as relevant as it should have been for most of the past 15 years. Now Mullin comes in and the alums and boosters are banking on his name to get the program into the top three of the conference annually. Some people I've spoken with greet this move with a lot of skepticism. This could be the hire that jolts SJU -- or keeps it in the bottom tier of the Big East for the next half-decade.

BOLD PREDICTION: I can't say getting five teams to the NCAAs is bold, not when six made it last season. And predicting Dunn to win national player of the year isn't that out of line, considering he's considered one of a handful of reasonable candidates already. So here's my on-a-limb declaration: The 2016 Sweet 16 will have three of its spots filled by teams from the Big East. Why I say it: Point guard play. Nova has Arch and Brunson; Georgetown, for all of its March mortifications over the past some-odd years, has DSR; Xavier has a trio of really good guards who can handle; Butler isn't prone to turnovers; and PC of course has Dunn. Getting three squads to the second weekend isn't unlikely by any means.

CBS SPORTS PRESEASON ALL-BIG EAST TEAM
• Kris Dunn, Providence

• D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Georgetown

• Ryan Arcidiacono, Villanova

• Jalen Reynolds, Xavier

• Roosevelt Jones, Butler

CBS SPORTS PRESEASON BIG EAST PLAYER OF THE YEAR
• Kris Dunn, Providence

CBS SPORTS PRESEASON BIG EAST COACH OF THE YEAR
• John Thompson III, Georgetown

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...ons-respect-to-villanova-which-is-elite-again

 

[Halldan1]

Pick SHU where you want. I have no problem with that. But to not even mention the reigning Big East ROY is shoddy reporting to say the least.

Writer loses a lot of credibility there.

 

[HALL85]

Pick SHU where you want. I have no problem with that. But to not even mention the reigning Big East ROY is shoddy reporting to say the least.

Writer loses a lot of credibility there.

Especially for the bottom tier teams, it looks like the writer picked one item to focus on with each team. I don't know if that shoddy reporting or just picking the most important factor facing a team and just focusing on that. I don't see an agenda specifically with Seton Hall in this short article.

 

[Halldan1]

Not an agenda. Just very shoddy reporting. You mention Billy Garrett, Jr., Myke Henry and Tommy Hamilton IV for DePaul and that's fine. But then you don't list one of the best big men in the league and as noted the reining ROY.

It almost seemed like once he got past Marquette he just wanted to quickly finish his league profile.

I don't expect lower projected teams to get the same coverage as the elite teams in the league. They don't deserve it. But to not even mention Delgado is a very poor job of reporting.

 

[Pirate64]

We are off the radar because of the meltdown.

 

[Halldan1]

We are off the radar because of the meltdown.

I expect the usual negativism by the usual posters re SHU. It's not going to change here until we start winning. I have resigned myself to that after monitoring this board since last spring.

But that was not my point. My point is you do not mention SHU without mentioning Delgado. It's a disservice to the player.

 

[HALL85]

Not an agenda. Just very shoddy reporting. You mention Billy Garrett, Jr., Myke Henry and Tommy Hamilton IV for DePaul and that's fine. But then you don't list one of the best big men in the league and as noted the reining ROY.

It almost seemed like once he got past Marquette he just wanted to quickly finish his league profile.

I don't expect lower projected teams to get the same coverage as the elite teams in the league. They don't deserve it. But to not even mention Delgado is a very poor job of reporting.

The shoddy reporting was still light years better than the CNBC moderators last night...lol. Teams at the bottom of the league just aren't going to get the attention. He should have mentioned Delgado and it was a miss, but the rest of the article was a good snapshot piece.

 

[SOBO1]

Agree with Dan. You would think the report would mention our best player in a season preview. I agree with the writer's rankings though.

Our league may not have the year in and year out national title contenders like the ACC but top to bottom we have one of the most competitive leagues.

I don't care enough to look it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if a larger percentage of our conference is in the top 100 RPI vs any other major conference.

 

[Halldan1]

Kenpom: Top 8 Preseason Conference Rating

1 Atlantic Coast Conference .8174
2 Big 12 Conference .8171
3 Big Ten Conference .7848
4 Pac 12 Conference .7653
5 Big East Conference .7621
6 Southeastern Conference .7458
7 American Athletic Conference .6662
8 Atlantic 10 Conference .6520

 

[SPK145]

I agree with Dan, Delgado should have gotten a mention.

Now I think Villanova is the best team in the BE but "elite"? I'm just not seeing that.

 

[Halldan1]

Steve, when I said elite I was talking about elite teams in the league.

Now that said I do believe that they are a top 10 team in the country. So in this case I do project Nova as an elite (national) team.

 

[shugrads]

most of the time we never agree w/ the preseason rankings, but more often then not they are right.

 

[Halldan1]

most of the time we never agree w/ the preseason rankings, but more often then not they are right.

In most cases these rankings are cookie cutter like. Meaning everyone has nearly the same projections.

Usually they are right providing that injuries don't have a major effect. But more often than not there's a team or two that play better or worse than expected.

In our particular case let's hope it's Seton Hall on the uptick.

 

[SPK145]

Steve, when I said elite I was talking about elite teams in the league.

Actually I was referring to the article when I posted that sentence, not you. Top 10? Still don't see it. Great guards, very good player in Ochefu, not enough else in the frontcourt to be considered elite.