I see it this way:
vs. Creighton/Xavier: Must win 1
Villanova (2): Must win 1
vs. Georgetown: Must win
@ UConn/@ PC: Must win 1
Or another way: Must at least split with Nova, must beat Georgetown. Must win 2 of the other 4 games (vs. CU/XU, @ UConn/PC).
So as of right now, no individual game is a "must win" outside of Georgetown. But if we lose a few in the next 2 weeks, then we will encounter true must win games.
If we lose tonight, I believe either @ Nova or vs. Xavier becomes a must win. If we win tonight it takes a lot of pressure off for now. It's a big week. We can really change our fortunes with 1 or 2 wins between now and Saturday night.