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Electoral Future of the Republican Party

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shu09

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Jan 6, 2006
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I've been thinking about this a lot recently. Given what is likely to be a net negative effect that the Trump nomination will have on the GOP and the changing demographics in certain states, how do you all see the electoral future of this party when it comes to presidential races?

I think a pretty bleak picture can be painted rather easily. Consider some changes in the map over the last few election cycles.
  • Virginia, once a fantasy land for Democrats, has become a state that leans left in presidential elections since Obama managed to flip it in 2008. Prior to his victory there, VA had not voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964.
  • North Carolina has become a battleground state after decades of solidly being in the GOP column.
  • Pennsylvania and Michigan, states the GOP always hopes to win, haven't voted for a Republican since 1988.
  • Wisconsin is similar, having not gone for the GOP since the Reagan landslide in 1984.
  • Minnesota, another GOP longshot target, has voted for a Republican only once since Ike was in the White House.
  • Even Iowa has gone Republican only one time since Reagan.
  • Colorado has started leaning Democratic after half a century of being fairly reliable Republican territory.
  • New Hampshire has voted GOP only once since 1988 despite its battleground reputation.
  • New Mexico has become relatively safe territory for the Democrats, with one exception (2004).
  • The west coast is now rock solid Democratic territory.
When you consider all of this and add to that the shifting demographics in states like Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Nevada would lead you to believe those states will be turning quite a bit more liberal in the years to come. Some (Nevada and Florida come to mind) have already begun that transition. Barack Obama transformed the map in a way that looks to benefit Democrats for many years to come. Imagine if Texas, Georgia and Arizona become competitive swing states? That would be a doomsday scenario for the GOP in an already tough electoral map in the post-Obama era.

Of course, the strength of the candidate is the biggest factor in electoral success. Let's be honest, a roster of Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole isn't quite what wins elections, to be nice. Even George W. Bush wasn't the greatest candidate (two razor thin elections) and definitely benefited from being the incumbent in his re-election bid in 2004.

Moving forward, it's hard to see the White House in Republican hands in the short to middle term, absent a transformational candidate or a dramatic change to the GOP platform that better aligns itself with the demographic reality in America today and in the future. The map is already difficult for the GOP and it's only going to get worse for them over the next 10-20 years.
 
There is nothing to worry about. It's always about the candidate.

If in this election the Republican Party had nominated a relatively mainstream candidate like John Kasich, the resulting electoral landslide for Republicans would have set the Democratic Party back 8 years.
 
John McCain was a good Republican candidate. He unfortunately torpedoed any chance he had by choosing Sara Palin as his running mate. It would have been a closer race if he had chosen a guy like Tom Ridge from Pennsylvania to be VP. Otherwise, I agree with you. The electoral map is a difficult one for the Republicans.

Think about this, Trump can win, Ohio, Florida and Iowa and still lose the election.
 
^ LOL

Agree with knowknow -- it's all about the candidate. I suspect Hillary will win this election, and while it might be by a significant electoral college margin, it will still be along the order of 55-45% popular vote. Almost 150 MILLION people voting for Trump. They're not all uneducated rubes, drinking Mountain Dew through large gaps in their dentition.

The worst thing that can happen to this country is unmitigated progressive or conservative rule. Many of the wingnuts are rooting for complete destruction of the Republican party, but it's the last thing any reasonable person would want.
 
Merge said:
@shu09 did you read the 2012 GOP autopsy report?

http://goproject.gop.com/RNC_Growth_Opportunity_Book_2013.pdf

The GOP completely acknowledged what they did wrong and where they need to go as a party... and then completely ignored it.

They will not win another general election unless they soften their stances on immigration and other social issues.
Click to expand...

Eh. As someone pointed out, if Kasich were in this race (assuming no skeletons or behavior on par with The Donald), he would be the prohibitive favorite.
 
It's mostly about the candidate, don't fall into the James Carville/Dick Morris useless idiot, soundbite syndrome.
 
donnie_baseball said:
Eh. As someone pointed out, if Kasich were in this race (assuming no skeletons or behavior on par with The Donald), he would be the prohibitive favorite.
Click to expand...

Kasich is somewhat of a departure from the norm of the GOP today. Definitely left of the current playform on immigration and gay marriage.

With that said, the left never went after him since he never really had a shot. Had he gained momentum enough to win they would have pointed a spotlight on him. not sure he would be as favorable had they done that.
 
Personally, I think both parties are on shaky ground....
 
Merge said:
Kasich is somewhat of a departure from the norm of the GOP today. Definitely left of the current playform on immigration and gay marriage.

With that said, the left never went after him since he never really had a shot. Had he gained momentum enough to win they would have pointed a spotlight on him. not sure he would be as favorable had they done that.
Click to expand...

Aside from all that, if he was, at a minimum "reasonable," he'd be a lot more attractive to Republicans who won't support Trump, and independents and those who won't vote for Hillary. Hillary is the worst Democratic nominee in decades. Her approval numbers, prior to taking office, are abysmal.
 
donnie_baseball said:
Aside from all that, if he was, at a minimum "reasonable," he'd be a lot more attractive to Republicans who won't support Trump, and independents and those who won't vote for Hillary. Hillary is the worst Democratic nominee in decades. Her approval numbers, prior to taking office, are abysmal.
Click to expand...

I agree with you about Hillary being --by comparison--an unattractive candidate. I believe she would have been beaten by Romney or even McCain despite the Palin factor. Frankly, both parties have a problem producing candidates who energize the electorate. Trump does that but to too narrow a segment of the populace.

The electoral map is definitely moving toward the blue side. Here in Georgia it was unthinkable that we would be anything other than solid red. But each election cycle the trend has definitely been gradually moving away from the hard right. It won't happen in 2016, but by 2020 it has a very good chance of going blue.

The GOP --imho-- is not likely to get the White House if it continues to cater to embrace the hard-line social issues. Moving forward, they're likely to control the House, which they've succeeded in gerrymandering. But the Senate is another story.

For the 2020 presidential election, the GOP's best shot is to develop a likeable, younger candidate who can tap into the core unhappiness that's out there without engaging in the kind of dumpster-diving that Trump has embraced. The man is a fool of epic proportions. I'm not in love with Hillary, but she is head and shoulders more qualified than him and should make a good president, which I know will piss off all who revile her.
 
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HallLine69 said:
I agree with you about Hillary being --by comparison--an unattractive candidate. I believe she would have been beaten by Romney or even McCain despite the Palin factor. Frankly, both parties have a problem producing candidates who energize the electorate. Trump does that but to too narrow a segment of the populace.

The electoral map is definitely moving toward the blue side. Here in Georgia it was unthinkable that we would be anything other than solid red. But each election cycle the trend has definitely been gradually moving away from the hard right. It won't happen in 2016, but by 2020 it has a very good chance of going blue.

The GOP --imho-- is not likely to get the White House if it continues to cater to embrace the hard-line social issues. Moving forward, they're likely to control the House, which they've succeeded in gerrymandering. But the Senate is another story.

For the 2020 presidential election, the GOP's best shot is to develop a likeable, younger candidate who can tap into the core unhappiness that's out there without engaging in the kind of dumpster-diving that Trump has embraced. The man is a fool of epic proportions. I'm not in love with Hillary, but she is head and shoulders more qualified than him and should make a good president, which I know will piss off all who revile her.
Click to expand...

69 - agree with most of what you say! I doubt she'll make a very good President, but I certainly won't root against it.
 
cernjSHU said:
John McCain was a good Republican candidate. He unfortunately torpedoed any chance he had by choosing Sara Palin as his running mate. It would have been a closer race if he had chosen a guy like Tom Ridge from Pennsylvania to be VP. Otherwise, I agree with you. The electoral map is a difficult one for the Republicans.

Think about this, Trump can win, Ohio, Florida and Iowa and still lose the election.
Click to expand...
IMO, his lack of affinity with the right/religious wing of the party was going to jettison his effort if Sarah didn't beat them to it.

I hear the repubs are trying to get electoral votes based on square footage...
 
donnie_baseball said:
69 - agree with most of what you say! I doubt she'll make a very good President, but I certainly won't root against it.
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Which is much to your credit because I have a couple of relatives who have already told me they want her to be an utter failure. When I told them that would be bad for the country they had no rational response. I despised W, but rooting for him to fail was not an option.
 
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HallLine69 said:
I agree with you about Hillary being --by comparison--an unattractive candidate. I believe she would have been beaten by Romney or even McCain despite the Palin factor. Frankly, both parties have a problem producing candidates who energize the electorate. Trump does that but to too narrow a segment of the populace.

The electoral map is definitely moving toward the blue side. Here in Georgia it was unthinkable that we would be anything other than solid red. But each election cycle the trend has definitely been gradually moving away from the hard right. It won't happen in 2016, but by 2020 it has a very good chance of going blue.

The GOP --imho-- is not likely to get the White House if it continues to cater to embrace the hard-line social issues. Moving forward, they're likely to control the House, which they've succeeded in gerrymandering. But the Senate is another story.

For the 2020 presidential election, the GOP's best shot is to develop a likeable, younger candidate who can tap into the core unhappiness that's out there without engaging in the kind of dumpster-diving that Trump has embraced. The man is a fool of epic proportions. I'm not in love with Hillary, but she is head and shoulders more qualified than him and should make a good president, which I know will piss off all who revile her.
Click to expand...

Well said overall and mostly what I was trying to get at in the original post. The electoral map is very unfavorable for the GOP moving forward.
 
HallLine69 said:
Which is much to your credit because I have a couple of relatives who have already told me they want her to be an utter failure. When I told them that would be bad for the country they had no rational response. I despised W, but rooting for him to fail was not an option.
Click to expand...

I'm always amazed and saddened when people put partisan hackery above the good of the country.

I will not be voting for Trump or Clinton (will be writing in for the first time ever) but I hope whoever wins has a great presidency. To say otherwise is, frankly, borderline treasonous.
 
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HallLine69 said:
Which is much to your credit because I have a couple of relatives who have already told me they want her to be an utter failure. When I told them that would be bad for the country they had no rational response. I despised W, but rooting for him to fail was not an option.
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Republicants (thanks spk for this word) will do what they can to sabotage her presidency and I will read here about how she is arrogant and did a bad job working with congress.
 
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Seton75 said:
Republicants (thanks spk for this word) will do what they can to sabotage her presidency and I will read here about how she is arrogant and did a bad job working with congress.
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They will, no doubt, but this is a bipartisan effort, Bush was also vilified by the democraps, especially some of their leaders like Harry Reid.
 
shu09 said:
To be determined. I have a few people in mind. One ran for president and lost this year.
Click to expand...

I jusy may write in Lawrence Kotlikoff. Gary Johnson has just gone wacky recently yet is still probably a better leader than either major party candidate

When the major party choices are bad and disastrous, I have to take a principled stand. Like shu09 and bobbie solo.
 
I think the choice, while terrible either way, comes down to one simple thought, who has the country in a better place in 4 years
 
SPK145 said:
I jusy may write in Lawrence Kotlikoff. Gary Johnson has just gone wacky recently yet is still probably a better leader than either major party candidate

When the major party choices are bad and disastrous, I have to take a principled stand. Like shu09 and bobbie solo.
Click to expand...

Without personally attacking him, let's just say that Gary Johnson is "unfit" to be president and I'll leave it at that. I'd never vote for him.

I'll have to read up on Kotlikoff. Don't know much about him.
 
In the long haul, the incoming Trump torpedo to the GOP could be what they need to fix the nuttiness that enabled Trump to become the candidate to begin with.

If either of these dopey parties could've manufactured a reasonable candidate they'd be creaming the other.
 
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SPK145 said:
I jusy may write in Lawrence Kotlikoff. Gary Johnson has just gone wacky recently yet is still probably a better leader than either major party candidate

When the major party choices are bad and disastrous, I have to take a principled stand. Like shu09 and bobbie solo.
Click to expand...
Had this conversation with our kids this weekend when they were all home. I can say with certainty there will be five write-in votes from this family.
 
SPK145 said:
They will, no doubt, but this is a bipartisan effort, Bush was also vilified by the democraps, especially some of their leaders like Harry Reid.
Click to expand...
Yes, of course. And if reid said he wanted to do all he could to make bush fail, he is just as bad as the current majority leader. Voting against bills you do not like and speaking out against them is part of the game. Blatantly putting party before country is not. Try to imagine a relationship between pres hil and repub speaker like Ron and tip...Not in a million years.

And I blame this on Repubs more than dems. Garbage like breitback is put out and people believe it like they believe any conspiracy theory. Network tv was biased to dems, but shit like fox is propaganda whose blatant purpose us furthering a party.

Cronkite was probably a dem/lib as were many newsman of my youth. And their coverage of the turmoil brought on by the Viet Nam war in the nation drove lbj, responsible for more lib action than maybe anyone, from office to pave the way for nixon. After the p---- grabbing, fox covered the hurricane all weekend lofl
 
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Seton75 said:
And I blame this on Repubs more than dems. Garbage like breitback is put out and people believe it like they believe any conspiracy theory. Network tv was biased to dems, but shit like fox is propaganda whose blatant purpose us furthering a party.
Click to expand...

Seton 75 has hit on something very important. Garbage organizations posing as legitimate news organizations are poisoning the minds of people. How can you get into an honest debate about real issues when they are all in a flutter about conspiracy theories like the 50 people that the Clintons have had killed. I was at a party two weeks ago and one of these nuts said that Obama sold the internet to United Nations. I mean come on! These conspiracists exist on both ends of the political spectrum like "Loose Change" which was the theory that the government meaning George W Bush took down the towers. It is trash like this that has exploded on social media and spreads like wildfire that is really hurting this country. People read a ridiculous headline and run with it.
 
shupat08 said:
24 hour news media has killed the country's political system and the internet has buried it 6 feet under.
Click to expand...
As newspapers die out or cut back, unbiased investigative reporting and objective content have disappeared. Saw Bob Woodward at a meeting several years ago and his biggest concern as a journalist was not that news/information was moving from print to electronic, but that there was little quality content on cable or internet news.

If anything, this election cycle has magnified the issue to the point where the majority of folks have tuned out the MSM as a trusted source of news. It's mostly biased entertainment now and most acknowledge it. Who knows...maybe the time is right for someone to start up a real objective news channel that reports the facts. I can dream.

Not sure if anyone saw CBS evening news last night, but there was a segment on Trump's despicable comments on the bus and how it's creating a moment/move to discuss sexual harassment, which they pointed to some viral twitter post that some woman made. To support it, they brought up the whole Clarence Thomas appointment and interviewed Anita Hill. No mention of Slick Willy at all. Would seem to me that it would have been the perfect and relevant example to use on harassment....
 
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HALL85 said:
Not sure if anyone saw CBS evening news last night, but there was a segment on Trump's despicable comments on the bus and how it's creating a moment/move to discuss sexual harassment, which they pointed to some viral twitter post that some woman made. To support it, they brought up the whole Clarence Thomas appointment and interviewed Anita Hill. No mention of Slick Willy at all. Would seem to me that it would have been the perfect and relevant example to use on harassment....
Click to expand...

So, news bias is ok if they bring up former President Clinton as an example of sexual harassment rather than Justice Thomas?
 
knowknow456 said:
So, news bias is ok if they bring up former President Clinton as an example of sexual harassment rather than Justice Thomas?
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No, but don't you think it's odd that they wouldn't discuss and ignored Clinton as well since it's relevant to the this election? But they chose to dredge up Thomas from 20 years ago?
 
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Are there new allegations of sexual harassment regarding Bill Clinton? Or are you referring to the allegations from 20 years ago?
 
knowknow456 said:
Are there new allegations of sexual harassment regarding Bill Clinton? Or are you referring to the allegations from 20 years ago?
Click to expand...
Are there any new ones about Trump...these comments were from 11 years ago.
 
There is bias everywhere, CNN/MSNBC/the broadcast channels are every bit as biased, probably moreso (and even in cahoots) than FOX News.
 
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HALL85 said:
Are there any new ones about Trump...these comments were from 11 years ago.
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Trump is not directly related to this news report, which was about sexual harassment. You objected to CBS dredging up Clarence Thomas and his 20 year old harassment problem. You would have preferred to dredge up Bill Clinton and his 20 year old harassment problem.

You have no problem with bias as long as you agree with the bias being presented.
 
knowknow456 said:
Trump is not directly related to this news report, which was about sexual harassment. You objected to CBS dredging up Clarence Thomas and his 20 year old harassment problem. You would have preferred to dredge up Bill Clinton and his 20 year old harassment problem.

You have no problem with bias as long as you agree with the bias being presented.
Click to expand...
Yes, Trump was directly related to the report. The interview was the jumping off point. That was exactly my point. And the difference is that Thomas is not relevant in the current election cycle where Clinton is very much so.
 
knowknow456 said:
Trump is not directly related to this news report, which was about sexual harassment. You objected to CBS dredging up Clarence Thomas and his 20 year old harassment problem. You would have preferred to dredge up Bill Clinton and his 20 year old harassment problem.

You have no problem with bias as long as you agree with the bias being presented.
Click to expand...
Yes, Trump was directly related to the report. The interview was the jumping off point. That was exactly my point. And the difference is that Thomas is not relevant in the current election cycle where Clinton is very much so.
 
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