https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/super-rich-yorkers-including-billionaire-143000107.html
Not sustainable…that’s a lot of wealth leaving the state.
Not sustainable…that’s a lot of wealth leaving the state.
Exodus
- Thread starter HALL85
- Start date
Personal income tax revenue in billions
2013 - 9.2
2014 -9.5
2015 - 10.6
2016 - 10.8
2017 -11.1
2018 - 13.4
2019 - 13.2
2020 - 11.9
2021 - 16.8
2022 - 16.8
Doesn't seem like it's that much of an issue.
Charging the people that are left a higher percentage to offset all of the programs they have had to put in place. I think this supports the argument of why people are leaving.
Taxes didn't go up for the far majority of residents.
When the city was shut down, there was little reason to stay.
Remote work, and nothing was open. If you have the means to leave, why would you live in NYC in 2020. I wouldn't read too much into data from 2020 and 2021 at this point.
If vacancy rates were high and rental prices were low, I would be concerned. The opposite is true though.
Those numbers still look pretty strong for NYC and are not reflective of budgeting for residents fleeing.
"Combined personal income tax (PIT) and pass-through entity tax (PTET) revenues are forecast at $15.284 billion in 2023, an 8.5 percent decrease from 2022 but still above 2021 levels. This drop is triggered by a decrease in non-wage components, which are returning to more typical levels after the high watermark of 2022. The outlook for PIT remains unchanged compared to the June 2022 Adopted Budget. Withholding collections are forecast to grow 3.3 percent in 2023 due to strong labor markets. Total employment is expected to increase 4.0 percent and non-finance wages increase 4.0 percent. Withholding is dragged down because of a sharp decline in the end-of-year bonus payments, which are expected to decrease 23.4 percent in 2023. Lower bonuses payments can be attributed to the sharp decline in Wall Street profits in calendar year 2022. As a result of the drop in bonuses, overall wages are expected to decrease 1.1 percent. Combined, these factors result in a modest 2.9 percent increase in total wage earnings."
High taxes and crime is not a winning strategy.
abc7ny.com
Fox News meteorologist Adam Klotz badly beaten on Manhattan subway; 3 teens arrested
Adam Klotz says he was repeatedly punched in the face by a group of teens around 1 a.m. while coming home from a bar on a 1 train in Chelsea.
High taxes and crime is not a winning strategy.
Fox News meteorologist Adam Klotz badly beaten on Manhattan subway; 3 teens arrested
Adam Klotz says he was repeatedly punched in the face by a group of teens around 1 a.m. while coming home from a bar on a 1 train in Chelsea.
Agree. The crime is a bigger problem in my opinion.
I personally wouldn't feel safe taking a subway by myself at 1:00 in the morning. That is a problem.
Sure, that’s part of the overall issue. There was a huge number of LEO’ that left during BLM and DiBlaso’s administration and then pandemic. You don’t pivot and fix that immediately. They can’t hire enough officers in the level of experience and quality. It’s just not there.
More money is going to have to come from the top 10% of wealth or the conditions will continue to decline. Agree that no way would I get on a subway.
Money really isn't the problem though. The city had a $2 billion surplus and is budgeting a full police force going forward. They just need the new hires, the right leadership in place and some time to change the culture.
I actually spent the weekend in the city with my family and it was my kids first time on the subway.
No issues during the day and never felt unsafe but we were back at the Hotel by 7. I wouldn't stay out much later than that with the kids.
It’s not a problem because the renaming people wil just be taxed more. Mass transit is a black hole and infrastructure is crumbling.
https://nypost.com/2023/01/21/nyc-chase-atms-close-early-over-rising-crime-vagrancy/
Just like anything else you need future thought process on infrastructure. Upkeep is important and costly
As long as unemployment stays stable the city should be OK. If unemployment goes up things could change quickly. We are seeing some layoffs in big tech but so far not terrible.
"Budget gaps during FY 2024 through FY 2026 will average about $2.7 billion, an amount that has proven manageable historically."
The reason they had a surplus in 2022 was because of $31B in Federal and State Covid funds. Not sustainable.
www.osc.state.ny.us
The reason they had a surplus in 2022 was because of $31B in Federal and State Covid funds. Not sustainable.
DiNapoli: Federal Aid, Increasing Tax Revenues and Savings Boost New York City's Surplus
New York City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings, according to a report released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli on the city’s February financial plan.
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"Budget gaps during FY 2024 through FY 2026 will average about $2.7 billion, an amount that has proven manageable historically."
The reason they had a surplus in 2022 was because of $31B in Federal and State Covid funds. Not sustainable.
DiNapoli: Federal Aid, Increasing Tax Revenues and Savings Boost New York City's Surplus
New York City is expecting to generate a surplus of $3.7 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2022 due to federal aid, better-than-projected tax revenues, and planned savings, according to a report released today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli on the city’s February financial plan.
Yes, they received Covid funds. The amount for 2022 is less than their surplus and Covid relief is not why tax revenue was up in 2022, a year they originally projected a deficit of a couple billion btw… and the out year deficits were also originally 4.5 billon dollar deficits.
Not that complicated really. Low unemployment lead to a very competitive job market in this area and increased wages which resulted in higher taxes paid. That's the sustainable part and why budged income tax revenue is not dropping back to 2021 levels even though some of the richest people in the city moved out. It will drop compared to 2022 because the market is not as strong and we won't see the same level of bonus payouts etc.
@SHallguy2 is right. As long as unemployment is relatively stable, there really won't be an issue with revenue.
If you're looking for an indicator for trouble in NYC it's the rental market. If vacancies start increasing and prices start dropping then you'll know that people no longer think it's worth it to live there. There were fears that's what would happen with the hybrid / remote work environments but that's not how it played out after the dust settled and the the demand to live in NYC is still very strong.
More finance jobs fleeing New York
Financial services make up some thing like a fifth of New York State revenue. Believe me, this trend line is significant.
Financial services make up some thing like a fifth of New York State revenue. Believe me, this trend line is significant.
Again.. They received Covid funds. Covid funds are not why tax revenue is up and not projected to go down to pre-2021 levels. Separate things here.
6 years ago - 520k jobs in finance and insurance in NYC. most recent - 520k jobs in the sector in NYC
High of 529k and low of 513k in between those years.
Seems more like NYC is saturated and other markets are expanding?
The factors are all long-game type issues. Crime will not turn around anytime quickly because of the bail reform laws and lack of experienced law enforcement. Quality of life is sliding and the moving of financial services firms out of the city will also be a trend that will be difficult if not impossible to reverse.
Major upscale retail are closing their NYC stores, chains retreating and even the mom & pops have to lock up inventory as thieves are just walking out with it and reselling on the street. Not sustainable and to reverse that will take years. Small sample, but I was talking to Sal Panto (mayor of Easton) which is going through a major rebirth and expansion about what is driving it and what's next. Becoming a cultural arts center with great restaurants pulling people from NJ and surrounding areas. A city that you would not be safe in 20 years ago. They invested in police and security, reduced crime dramatically and are riding the coattails of the growth in the market. It's attracted investment of several new apartment buildings and boutique hotels. He said the priority now is to get a major supermarket and other chains to move into downtown area to support the increased population...businesses that left 20 years ago because of the crime. Point being in a small city like Easton, it takes decades. NYC? Good luck.
Major upscale retail are closing their NYC stores, chains retreating and even the mom & pops have to lock up inventory as thieves are just walking out with it and reselling on the street. Not sustainable and to reverse that will take years. Small sample, but I was talking to Sal Panto (mayor of Easton) which is going through a major rebirth and expansion about what is driving it and what's next. Becoming a cultural arts center with great restaurants pulling people from NJ and surrounding areas. A city that you would not be safe in 20 years ago. They invested in police and security, reduced crime dramatically and are riding the coattails of the growth in the market. It's attracted investment of several new apartment buildings and boutique hotels. He said the priority now is to get a major supermarket and other chains to move into downtown area to support the increased population...businesses that left 20 years ago because of the crime. Point being in a small city like Easton, it takes decades. NYC? Good luck.
Again, you cited the surplus as being the indicator that they are in great shape. I cited the surplus was due to Covid funding.
I never said Covid Funding impacted tax revenue.
Fair point. I might be more inclined to agree if existing jobs in NYC were staying and new jobs were being created elsewhere. What we are seeing is existing jobs are leaving the city, and apparently, other jobs are replacing them. Having no growth isn’t a good thing, but it is better than I would’ve anticipated those numbers being.
You can root for the demise all you like, but it's just not happening.
Residential vacancies are down, rents are up.
Retail vacancies are back below pre pandemic levels. Rents are up.
NYC is the cultural center of the country if not the world and people want to live there. Retail stores want to serve the people wo live there and the 50 million+ tourists that visit every year... and that is while crime is a problem.
I was saying that money wasn't a problem because they were already budgeting a full police force and they don't need to increase taxes to fund it.
Not really no growth though, go back to 2010 and it's up 40k.
I think there is plenty of room for other cities to thrive as well, but the major players will always want to be in NYC.
I’m not rooting for anything. Just observations and element of demise that are very difficult to rebound from especially with current policies. The original article pointed to the net loss of population wealth. Even the mayor is complaining and concerned about the wealthy leaving.
One of the major commuter and tour private bus lines from PA has totally eliminated the tours to NYC. No demand.
NYC will survive for sure, but it’s going to be a challenge if things don’t change.
The original article is based on 2020 tax returns. A pandemic year when the city shut down.
2021 data when it is available is going to show a huge net gain in population wealth, as supported by personal tax receipts. It just isn't available yet.
I'd imagine a company relying on commuters in an era of remote work would probably see low demand.
NYC tourist visits
2019 - 66 million
2020 - 22 million
2021 - 33 million
2022 - 56 million
Seems demand for the tourism part is almost back to normal.
You are conflating numbers. The article refers to the number of wealthy people leaving which has been significant. Population wealth has increased because the remaining people have gotten huge wage and bonuses. Once again, if I am making that kind of wealth I will find a way to keep more of it (which is triggering the number leaving).
So if fewer people are commuting into the city on a daily basis, they are not spending money there….because they are not there…
And I wasn’t even referencing commuters. Tours have completely stopped.
Seems like demand is down 11 million from pre-pandemic levels. The city was basically shut down for a good part of 2020-21 but very few if any restrictions in 2022.
And yet, NY still manages to have one of the highest percentage of higher wage earners than any other state.
If taxes are your concern, you’re not living in NY.
What happened was the city shut down and it was no longer worth those taxes to stay. You’re going to see a quick rebound in these statistics you’re concerned about.
You weren’t referencing commuters with the “major commuter and tour private bus line”?
Sales tax receipts are also back above pre pandemic levels. Don’t worry, people are spending money.
Right. I said almost back to normal.
Because it’s been the epicenter of the financial services industry…duh.
No? Then why are so many super wealthy leaving or doing the 6 months and 1 day in Florida?
I specifically said their tour business into NYC has shut down. Fail on twisting my words.
20% drop from pre-pandemic? That’s more than a rounding error.
Yes…. Exactly.
That law is not new. If you weren’t doing it before the pandemic but decided to during the pandemic it’s related to the city shutting down. There was nothing to do in 2020. Focusing only on a data from 2020 is just not telling the whole story.
Lol… you said it was a commuter and tour company. I don’t need to twist anything to understand that remote work has likely had a significant impact on at least a large portion of their business.
After a drop to 33% of 2019 levels, getting back to 85% and on track to fully rebound is a good thing for the city.
The law is not new, but conditions changed. It was now feasible to actually live in Florida, because remote work became a thing for many positions. That phenomena in 2020 is continuing.
I said their tour business shut down. You obviously don’t understand that.
Where does it say on track to fully rebound? That’s your opinion.
Again... you're focusing on 2020 data. A year when nothing was open in NYC.
If you had the option to live elsewhere in 2020, you did. You need more recent data to understand any trend here.
I do understand what you said, but it's a pretty absurd point you're arguing. They lost their commuters and lost their tourists for years. It sucks that the pandemic crushed their business, but it's not really surprising that there was no demand for their services for years, and they aren't starting up again just for tourism and hybrid commuting.
Have you tried google?The city projects 62 million in 2023, and 69 million in 2024.
No one is rooting for the demise. It is just happening.
I have deep NYC roots and would prefer it was doing better.
Until the crime situation gets better, I'll be staying home. Plenty of high quality theater, food, and sports out our way.
www.nytimes.com
I have deep NYC roots and would prefer it was doing better.
Until the crime situation gets better, I'll be staying home. Plenty of high quality theater, food, and sports out our way.
In New Forecast, New York City Projects $2.9 Billion Deficit
The stock market’s weak performance is projected to cost the city billions of dollars in pension fund obligations in the coming years.
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No one is rooting for the demise. It is just happening.
I have deep NYC roots and would prefer it was doing better.
Until the crime situation gets better, I'll be staying home. Plenty of high quality theater, food, and sports out our way.
In New Forecast, New York City Projects $2.9 Billion Deficit
The stock market’s weak performance is projected to cost the city billions of dollars in pension fund obligations in the coming years.
Demise compared to what though? It's always been kind of dangerous as any population center tends to be.
I'm there at least once a week, like I said I wouldn't travel alone on the subway at 1:00 am or with my kids later at night. But I go out often and I don't feel less safe in Manhattan than I did 10 or 20 years ago, and actually feels quite a bit safer now compared to when I was a kid.
Nothing wrong with PA at all. There are a lot of great towns. I looked into moving there a few years ago but my wife wasn't into moving away from her family yet. To each their own. Whatever works for you is great.
Personally, If money and wanting to live near family were not obstacles I would probably split time between Florida and NYC.
But these are physical moves...people don't just buy a house for a year or two and then sell it and move back. The anecdotal data and what I see from speaking with other business people (and listening to Mayor Adams, who is raising the red flag on wealth leaving) makes me think this trend will continue.)
Why is it absurd. It's real. Tour business from suburbs into NYC is down dramatically and has continued. They are a large provider and they have been shut down since the beginning of 2020 with no plan to restart because demand is not there. You brought the commuter piece up (not me) but that also supports that it's another demographic (remote) that is NOT spending their money in NYC. His commuter ridership is less than half of what it was in 2019 and he projects that will not come back either.
City projections...lol
The city projects 62 million in 2023, and 69 million in 2024.
Right, you will believe anecdotal data over will ignore all of the other real indicators like real estate prices, rental prices and vacancies etc which indicate that you are overestimating the impacts because those don't fit the narrative that you want to believe.
So... Assuming it's this guy?
90% of his business is commuter? Which company is it?
They projected 56.7 for 2022. They hit about 56 million.
Maybe they are better at this than you are.
After increasing 50% in 2021 and 70% in 2022, you think a 10% increase in 2023 and 2024 is crazy somehow?
and I wasn't talking to you when I said that.
The "demise" I was referring to was 85's grandiose statements about things not being sustainable, having to take more from wealthy people, not being able to afford to hire more cops, infrastructure crumbling, retail leaving etc...
He posts an article about wealth leaving the state being not sustainable but the actual tax collection data shows that personal tax revenue is up and projected to stay well above pre pandemic levels.
Instead of of acknowledging that maybe the city's tax collections are not really going to be an issue after those wealthy people left, he just hunts for another reason why the city must be struggling because that is what he is rooting for.
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