Exodus

[Pirata]

I don't see it as him rooting for NYC demise. I think his point is that high taxes and crime will drive people away.

I also don't share your optimism.

There is positive spin in the controller's report but the numbers aren't stellar. $13B in deficits projected 2023-2026.

https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/annual-state-of-the-citys-economy-and-finances/#:~:text=Most%20taxes%2C%20other%20than%20real,FYs%202025%20and%202026%20respectively.

 

[Merge]

I don't see it as him rooting for NYC demise. I think his point is that high taxes and crime will drive people away.

But then you look at the actual data and it’s not happening. People left in 2020 and they were replaced. Real estate and rental markets recovered. For every person that’s driven away, there is another waiting to take their spot.

There is positive spin in the controller's report but the numbers aren't stellar. $13B in deficits projected 2023-2026.

A deficit of about 3% of revenue. Not ideal but not really insurmountable either especially considering they will use that report as they plan and request state and federal aid, just like every other major city does.

 

[HALL85]

Right, you will believe anecdotal data over will ignore all of the other real indicators like real estate prices, rental prices and vacancies etc which indicate that you are overestimating the impacts because those don't fit the narrative that you want to believe.



So... Assuming it's this guy?



90% of his business is commuter? Which company is it?

That is the company. You can’t seem to connect the dots. My original point that his tour business has disappeared completely. Yes, that’s 10% of his total business, but it’s gone. Done.

They projected 56.7 for 2022. They hit about 56 million.
Maybe they are better at this than you are.
After increasing 50% in 2021 and 70% in 2022, you think a 10% increase in 2023 and 2024 is crazy somehow?

The 2022 number increases are coming out of the two years of the pandemic. Is it hard for you to think that the numbers may have flattened out?

 

[HALL85]

and I wasn't talking to you when I said that.

The "demise" I was referring to was 85's grandiose statements about things not being sustainable, having to take more from wealthy people, not being able to afford to hire more cops, infrastructure crumbling, retail leaving etc...

He posts an article about wealth leaving the state being not sustainable but the actual tax collection data shows that personal tax revenue is up and projected to stay well above pre pandemic levels.

Instead of of acknowledging that maybe the city's tax collections are not really going to be an issue after those wealthy people left, he just hunts for another reason why the city must be struggling because that is what he is rooting for.

Once again, I am not rooting for a demise. Those are your words.

I have my opinion, and it’s based on the following.:
- The original article that I posted that clearly shows super wealthy people are leaving New York City at a high rate.
- The mayor of New York, is complaining about the wealthy leaving New York city.
- Crime, homelessness, an illegal, alien population that the mayor is also complaining about every day, are all real issues that you can see.
- There has been a major exodus from the New York City police force. Combine that with the crazy bell policies, and once again, even the mayor is complaining, this is not sustainable.

If you want to hang your hat on projections from the cities, comptroller’s office, go right ahead. Are you surprised the mayor does not share your view?

 

[Merge]

That is the company. You can’t seem to connect the dots. My original point that his tour business has disappeared completely. Yes, that’s 10% of his total business, but it’s gone. Done.

What company?

The 2022 number increases are coming out of the two years of the pandemic. Is it hard for you to think that the numbers may have flattened out?

No. What are you talking about "flatten out" It goes up almost every year and has averaged about 5% per year over the last 20 years. Why would it be flat?

 

[Merge]

The original article that I posted that clearly shows super wealthy people are leaving New York City at a high rate.

No data yet on 2021 and you're reading too much into it.

Funny part is, looking at the data, that the number of filers over $5 million in New York actually increased and that increase entirely offset that amount of tax revenue lost with the decrease in filers between $750k and $5 million.

The mayor of New York, is complaining about the wealthy leaving New York city.

Looking forward to you believing everything he says.

Crime, homelessness, an illegal, alien population that the mayor is also complaining about every day, are all real issues that you can see.

Indeed. Those are real issues that need to be addressed.
Still, those issues are not hurting the desire for people to live there. As long as they don't get considerably worse, NYC will be fine.

If you want to hang your hat on projections from the cities, comptroller’s office, go right ahead. Are you surprised the mayor does not share your view?

I'm not hanging my hat on any politician.
I rely on industry data, and what I see see at my clients who actually lend in NYC.

 

[Merge]

That is the company. You can’t seem to connect the dots. My original point that his tour business has disappeared completely. Yes, that’s 10% of his total business, but it’s gone. Done.

Following up again... What company is it?

 

[HALL85]

No data yet on 2021 and you're reading too much into it.

Maybe you're not reading enough into it....

Funny part is, looking at the data, that the number of filers over $5 million in New York actually increased and that increase entirely offset that amount of tax revenue lost with the decrease in filers between $750k and $5 million.



Looking forward to you believing everything he says.

He has been very vocal about the wealthy leaving, illegal alien's, homelessness, crime, bail reform. All issues that have been reported widely by local NY news. Don't you think it's foolish to beleive everything that someone says? I never

Indeed. Those are real issues that need to be addressed.
Still, those issues are not hurting the desire for people to live there. As long as they don't get considerably worse, NYC will be fine.



I'm not hanging my hat on any politician.
I rely on industry data, and what I see see at my clients who actually lend in NYC.

Following up again... What company is it?

It’s a privately held business. Don’t think it’s right to share that.

 

[Merge]

Maybe you're not reading enough into it....

I've gone beyond the headline and looked at the actual data.
I showed you the ultra wealthy $5 million income+ haven't left.

Like I said, when the data on the 2021 returns come out, it's going to show a large improvement over 2020. Initial tax data supports that.

It’s a privately held business. Don’t think it’s right to share that.

I didn't ask you to share any non public information. You discussed their schedule, the name of the company doesn't change anything here. The name would just add context, unless you were just not being honest... Then I would understand why you don't want to share it.

 

[HALL85]

I've gone beyond the headline and looked at the actual data.
I showed you the ultra wealthy $5 million income+ haven't left.

Like I said, when the data on the 2021 returns come out, it's going to show a large improvement over 2020. Initial tax data supports that.

Just keep repeating the same thing. I’ve provided my opinions and why I feel that way. You want to have the last word so I know you’ll repeat the same lines yet again.

I didn't ask you to share any non public information. You discussed their schedule, the name of the company doesn't change anything here. The name would just add context, unless you were just not being honest... Then I would understand why you don't want to share it.

I provided a real anecdotal example of that supports my overall view. Without permission, I’m respecting the owner and his family. You obviously don’t care or get that. I really don’t care if you believe me or not.

 

[Merge]

Just keep repeating the same thing. I’ve provided my opinions and why I feel that way. You want to have the last word so I know you’ll repeat the same lines yet again.

You can just wait for the 2021 data. We'll revisit.
Other indicators already show what's coming.

Without permission, I’m respecting the owner and his family. You obviously don’t care or get that. I really don’t care if you believe me or not.

LOL... yeah, companies really care when you say the name of their company. I'm sure the owner was like, yeah feel free to talk about our business all you like, just never mention our name. What a ridiculous post.

Based on the fleet size, and routes, my assumption was Trans Bridge.

 

[Merge]

Where'd that post go. @Pirata Can't be them. They ran tours to NYC in 2022 and have more scheduled for 2023.

85 said the tour business "disappeared completely" was "Gone. Done."

He wouldn't make stuff up about that business just to win a dumb argument on the internet, right?

 

[Pirata]

Merge, there were two bus lines in the ABE area. One went out of business. Pick the other one.

 

[Merge]

Merge, there were two bus lines in the ABE area. One went out of business. Pick the other one.

I'm aware. If you're not catching on, I was pretty certain who it was the first time I asked which company it was.
Your post which you deleted seemed to confirm I was correct, no?

The follow up was tongue in cheek because 85 seems to have made up his "anecdotal evidence" here just to win an argument on the internet. Pretty sad.
In 2022 they ran tours to the Bronx Zoo, the Intrepid museum, The circle cruise line / little Italy, Coney Island and the 9/11 memorial... but "no demand" and the tour business "disappeared completely" and then pretends to be "respecting" the owner and their family. What a load.

 

[HALL85]

I'm aware. If you're not catching on, I was pretty certain who it was the first time I asked which company it was.
Your post which you deleted seemed to confirm I was correct, no?

The follow up was tongue in cheek because 85 seems to have made up his "anecdotal evidence" here just to win an argument on the internet. Pretty sad.
In 2022 they ran tours to the Bronx Zoo, the Intrepid museum, The circle cruise line / little Italy, Coney Island and the 9/11 memorial... but "no demand" and the tour business "disappeared completely" and then pretends to be "respecting" the owner and their family. What a load.

The tour business was predominantly Broadway and Manhattan shopping/lunch/dinner. You are pulling a handful of tours that have almost no impact in Manhattan. Try harder merge, try harder....

And as Pirata indicated, the other went completely out of business. Do you think that happened because there was still demand for tours and commuters????

 

[Pirata]

I am confident he is not pretending.

Perhaps you can envision the context of the owners sitting across the table over a bourbon and saying "the tour business is all but gone". In the setting I envision, the natural response is not to ask to see his books. Not everything has to be taken to 4 decimal points.

 

[HALL85]

I am confident he is not pretending.

Perhaps you can envision the context of the owners sitting across the table over a bourbon and saying "the tour business is all but gone". In the setting I envision, the natural response is not to ask to see his books. Not everything has to be taken to 4 decimal points.

How do you know we both like bourbon? That was pretty good if I may say so myself.

 

[Merge]

The tour business was predominantly Broadway and Manhattan shopping/lunch/dinner. You are pulling a handful of tours that have almost no impact in Manhattan. Try harder merge, try harder....

And as Pirata indicated, the other went completely out of business. Do you think that happened because there was still demand for tours and commuters????

The other company closed before NYC opened again. A shame but no, there was no demand for anything then.

. My original point that his tour business has disappeared completely. Yes, that’s 10% of his total business, but it’s gone. Done.

You exaggerated a point to win an argument on the internet. Pretty sad.

 

[Pirata]

How do you know we both like bourbon? That was pretty good if I may say so myself.

A close of friend of mine is a close friend of theirs.

As for you, Merge sent me a copy of your country club bills.

 

[Merge]

I am confident he is not pretending.

Perhaps you can envision the context of the owners sitting across the table over a bourbon and saying "the tour business is all but gone". In the setting I envision, the natural response is not to ask to see his books. Not everything has to be taken to 4 decimal points.

Here's what I envision.

85 has a good understanding of what the business is doing. He knows they are still doing tours to NYC... but rather than saying that they reduced services he goes with "disappeared completely' because that sounds like a much better point to make. Except that considering that tourism has increased dramatically in the last year, I wondered if what he said was actually true. Turned out it wasn't.

 

[Pirata]

Perfect. It's a beautiful thing. Keep those decimal points coming.

 

[HALL85]

Here's what I envision.

85 has a good understanding of what the business is doing. He knows they are still doing tours to NYC... but rather than saying that they reduced services he goes with "disappeared completely' because that sounds like a much better point to make. Except that considering that tourism has increased dramatically in the last year, I wondered if what he said was actually true. Turned out it wasn't.

Your record on conspiracy theories remains dismal....Like I said, I really don't care what goes on in your head. Keep parsing away....

 

[Merge]

Your record on conspiracy theories remains dismal....Like I said, I really don't care what goes on in your head. Keep parsing away....

Sorry. I called your bluff and you got caught in a lie.

Your buddy will stick up for you as a good buddy should... but it's pathetic that you presented this "anecdotal evidence" and it was bullshit. Then hid behind "respecting the family".

My original point that his tour business has disappeared completely. Yes, that’s 10% of his total business, but it’s gone. Done.

^ That just wasn't true. It didn't disappear completely. It's not gone. It's not done.
Zero credibility on your "anecdotal evidence" or "I know a guys" after that. You can spin that into pretending you mean something else, but it was just a blatant lie not expecting that I would actually look into if it was true or not.

I'm sure you do know people. Just a shame you feel the need to make up conversations you had with them to support a political view.

 

[Pirata]

Dude, have a glass of wine, better a few bourbons. Chill out.

You have serious anger and self esteem issues. Get help.

 

[HALL85]

Dude, have a glass of wine, better a few bourbons. Chill out.

He needs to get out more….or a truly good bourbon…sheesh

On a lighter note, how are you enjoying country living? Really interesting how the three mayors are working together here. Matt is really doing a great job.

 

[Merge]

Dude, have a glass of wine, better a few bourbons. Chill out.

You have serious anger and self esteem issues. Get help.

Lol. Couldn’t be further off on the anger one, and current in more of an Irish whiskey phase unless it’s a cocktail - then bourbon. Self esteem, I’d Say a solid 7 out of 10.

He got caught making up a story to support a political view. He should man up and own it but instead he will just act like he didn’t say that all the tour buses for that company closed down.

He’d be all over any other poster here if they got caught in a lie like that. All good. It is what it is, we can move on.

 

[Pirata]

The pathological insecure last worder fighting until the end. Admirable.

How do you keep a day job given him how many hours you spend posting and doing your LOTS research?

I suspect within 40 nanoseconds you'll get an alert that I posted and you'll go right to work thinking up your response.

 

[Pirata]

On a lighter note, how are you enjoying country living?

Doing fine. We had a little mishap the other day. We had a fire in our bathroom but luckily it didn't spread to the house

 

[Merge]

The pathological insecure last worder fighting until the end. Admirable.

How do you keep a day job given him how many hours you spend posting and doing your LOTS research?

I suspect within 40 nanoseconds you'll get an alert that I posted and you'll go right to work thinking up your response.

Well since you asked. I read fast, type faster and I suppose more importantly know where to look for data. Also happens that I need to have an understanding of NYC real estate and economic data for my clients.

This board was a fun break for a few minutes here and there and yea, I usually have 4 monitors and a browser on one of them with several tabs open. Piratecrew being one of them. Doesn’t take up that much time really.

Don’t really care for the last word. Just looked for fun back and forth banter and a good faith discussion on topics I’m interested in.

 

[HALL85]

Don’t really care for the last word.

 

[HALL85]

Doing fine. We had a little mishap the other day. We had a fire in our bathroom but luckily it didn't spread to the house

Yikes! Glad your okay.

 

[Pirata]

It was a joke. Get it. It didn't spread to the house. Get it. Ha ha.

As in:

 

[Pirata]

This is my set up:

 

[HALL85]

This is my set up:

Impressive...even an auditor should envy that.

I was looking for a laughing Pennsylvania Dutch farmer after the outhouse pic, but couldn't find one.

 

[Pirata]

 

[SHUSA]

I’m not rooting for anything. Just observations and element of demise that are very difficult to rebound from especially with current policies. The original article pointed to the net loss of population wealth. Even the mayor is complaining and concerned about the wealthy leaving.

One of the major commuter and tour private bus lines from PA has totally eliminated the tours to NYC. No demand.

NYC will survive for sure, but it’s going to be a challenge if things don’t change.

maybe its more of people not wanting to go on a tour bus...

 

[ed odowd]

As NYC drifts toward Wild West environment that Rudy cleaned up eventually a republican mayor will be elected and will clean it up.As Mark Twain said “ history does not repeat itself,but it often rhymes “

 

[Merge]

maybe its more of people not wanting to go on a tour bus...

The good news is that he made that up.

 

[Merge]

As NYC drifts toward Wild West environment that Rudy cleaned up eventually a republican mayor will be elected and will clean it up.As Mark Twain said “ history does not repeat itself,but it often rhymes “

Adams was a republican until he needed to get elected for something in NY, so you have your guy.

 

[ed odowd]

A little cherry picking on your part.Registered as republican in 1997 as a protest against democratic leadership reregistered as democratic in 2001 so for all but four years a dem and a dem last 22 years come on man you are better than that.