Experts' Final Four picksESPN Insider Men's College Basketball
No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers
Jay Bilas:
The Badgers do everything a team needs to do to beat Kentucky: They can control tempo, they can move Kentucky's big men around on the floor and get them out of the lane, and they can control the defensive glass and disallow second shots. The key will be Kentucky's depth. If John Calipari can play more bodies, he can wear down Wisconsin, get some fouls on the Badgers and get into their legs. Kentucky is the better team, and I favor the Wildcats to reach 39-0 and go to the title game.
Pick: Kentucky 68, Wisconsin 65
Dan Dakich:
I'm picking Kentucky, and I don't like it. Covering and watching Wisconsin was really fun this year but I've ridden UK as going 40-0 and I'll stick with it.
Notre Dame did what I've been preaching all tourney: Drive with purpose. Either go to the rim in a high jump -- not a broad-jump manner -- or drive to attract and then find shooters. Nobody does it better than Wisconsin, but finishing off Kentucky is much different than playing with them. These are the two best closing teams in college hoops. Mariano Rivera vs. Bruce Sutter. Whoever leads with five minutes to go wins, and I believe the length and talent of Kentucky prevails.
Pick: Kentucky 81, Wisconsin 76
Sean Farnham:
Kentucky survived and advanced to 38-0, rallying to beat Notre Dame in the Elite Eight. The Irish looked to attack the paint, not relying on the perimeter shot. Can or will Wisconsin do the same? Bo Ryan will attempt to create mismatches and then execute. The problem comes when you define mismatches. Frank Kaminsky, allowing the back line to hold positioning and not give up lanes to the rim. In the end, the defense of Kentucky will win the game.
Pick: Kentucky 67, Wisconsin 61
Fran Fraschilla:
If Wisconsin has another 15-for-20 second-half shooting night like it had versus Arizona, the Badgers will make history and set up a rematch with Duke. Unfortunately, Kentucky's defense will be locked in and ready to slow down the Badgers. Oh, and Aaron Harrison will make a critical 3-pointer at some point late in the game.
Pick: Kentucky 74, Wisconsin 68
John Gasaway:
There's been no way to tell because Wisconsin collectively (and Sam Dekker individually) has been next to unstoppable on offense, but teams playing the Badgers in the tournament have actually been able to score a
good many points. And if there's any defense outside the NBA that can slow down Bo Ryan's team just enough, it's the Wildcats. I expect a productive night from Karl-Anthony Towns against a Wisconsin D that has blocked just five shots in 248 tournament possessions.
Pick: Kentucky 80, Wisconsin 78
Jeff Goodman:
A year ago, it was Aaron Harrison who provided the heroics to knock off the Badgers in the national semifinals. Both teams are better than they were last season, but the key will be whether Wisconsin's backcourt can
hang with Kentucky's. The teams' front lines are fairly evenly matched (although the Cats have more bodies), but it will come down to guys like Devin Booker for UK. Koenig doesn't get rattled often, and I think he'll step up and the Badgers will advance.
Pick: Wisconsin 68, Kentucky 67
Seth Greenberg:
Wisconsin has a complete team and one of the most versatile frontcourts in the country. Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky can all post, shoot the 3-pointer and put the ball on the deck. Their versatility will challenge Kentucky but I feel it is a challenge their bigs will handle. This game could be decided in the backcourt. In Wisconsin's losses, it struggled defending the ball off the bounce.
Kentucky gets in the lane, which gets them to the glass and makes Kaminsky guard Towns on the block. This
could get him in foul trouble and make it difficult for Bo Ryan's team to win.
Pick: Kentucky 70, Wisconsin 67
No. 7 Duke Blue Devils
Jay Bilas:
The Spartans can win if they can get on the glass and get out in transition and play ahead of Duke's defense. The Blue Devils were criticized earlier in the season for their defense not being on par with their offense. But, in the last month, Duke has been one of the best defensive teams among the tournament field. Justise Winslow. While Michigan State is fully capable of winning, I favor Duke to advance to Monday night's championship game.
Pick: Duke 72, Michigan State 69
Dan Dakich: MSU is like the fighter that came up the hard way and just refuses to lose. The Spartans get down early, figure it out, then Trice, Dawson and The Fight of the Century.
Pick: Michigan State 70, Duke 65
Sean Farnham:
Tom Izzo has Michigan State back in the Final Four, but the ride the Spartans have been on will stop in the national semis at the hands of Duke. The Spartans needed 18.8 percent shooting from Louisville to rally
to win in the Elite Eight, and Duke has too many weapons to shoot that poorly. The Blue Devils will get to the line as they did in November (20-for-26) when these teams met (Duke won 81-71). Tyus Jones continues to impress with 22 assists and only six turnovers in the four NCAA tournament games. Duke only had three turnovers against Gonzaga, so you can't count on the Blue Devils making mistakes.
Pick: Duke 73, Michigan State 69
Fran Fraschilla:
Jahlil Okafor made 8-of-10 shots in the first meeting versus Michigan State. The way he's been maligned lately, it makes me think he'll be highly motivated in his next-to-last college game. Duke prevails.
Pick: Duke 73, Michigan State 65
John Gasaway:
No team in Indianapolis has scored fewer points to get here than Michigan State, and the Spartans are catching Duke at a time when the Blue Devils are actually playing very good defense. The game will be close, and Travis Trice will be a headache for some unlucky Duke defender/defenders. But over 40 minutes, Okafor, the surging Winslow and a Blue Devil to be named later (Matt Jones?) will put enough points on the board to get to Monday night.
Pick: Duke 62, Michigan State 55
Jeff Goodman: The Blue Devils will make getting Okafor the priority in this one, and Izzo just won't have an answer for the big man. Winslow has been playing like an All-American lately, and if Matt Jones makes shots like he did the other night, Duke will be tough to beat. Izzo has done a tremendous job with this group, but this is where it ends for Sparty.
Pick: Duke 74, Michigan State 67
Seth Greenberg:
These teams are very different than when they met in the Champions Classic on Nov. 18. Duke is playing Winslow at power forward and Jones at the wing. This has made them a much better defensive team and a team in which all five players champion their roles. Winslow is a matchup nightmare at the four, both offensively and defensively. I think the Branden Dawson-Winslow matchup will be important. Michigan State is a connected defensive team. The Spartans are explosive offensively in transition and run sets that fit their personnel. The Trice-Cook matchup will be a battle of senior guards. Denzel Valentine could end up being a difference-maker. The biggest question is if Michigan State can contain Okafor.
Pick: Duke 72, Michigan State 68
This post was edited on 4/1 11:11 AM by Halldan1
No. 1 Wisconsin Badgers
Jay Bilas:
The Badgers do everything a team needs to do to beat Kentucky: They can control tempo, they can move Kentucky's big men around on the floor and get them out of the lane, and they can control the defensive glass and disallow second shots. The key will be Kentucky's depth. If John Calipari can play more bodies, he can wear down Wisconsin, get some fouls on the Badgers and get into their legs. Kentucky is the better team, and I favor the Wildcats to reach 39-0 and go to the title game.
Pick: Kentucky 68, Wisconsin 65
Dan Dakich:
I'm picking Kentucky, and I don't like it. Covering and watching Wisconsin was really fun this year but I've ridden UK as going 40-0 and I'll stick with it.
Notre Dame did what I've been preaching all tourney: Drive with purpose. Either go to the rim in a high jump -- not a broad-jump manner -- or drive to attract and then find shooters. Nobody does it better than Wisconsin, but finishing off Kentucky is much different than playing with them. These are the two best closing teams in college hoops. Mariano Rivera vs. Bruce Sutter. Whoever leads with five minutes to go wins, and I believe the length and talent of Kentucky prevails.
Pick: Kentucky 81, Wisconsin 76
Sean Farnham:
Kentucky survived and advanced to 38-0, rallying to beat Notre Dame in the Elite Eight. The Irish looked to attack the paint, not relying on the perimeter shot. Can or will Wisconsin do the same? Bo Ryan will attempt to create mismatches and then execute. The problem comes when you define mismatches. Frank Kaminsky, allowing the back line to hold positioning and not give up lanes to the rim. In the end, the defense of Kentucky will win the game.
Pick: Kentucky 67, Wisconsin 61
Fran Fraschilla:
If Wisconsin has another 15-for-20 second-half shooting night like it had versus Arizona, the Badgers will make history and set up a rematch with Duke. Unfortunately, Kentucky's defense will be locked in and ready to slow down the Badgers. Oh, and Aaron Harrison will make a critical 3-pointer at some point late in the game.
Pick: Kentucky 74, Wisconsin 68
John Gasaway:
There's been no way to tell because Wisconsin collectively (and Sam Dekker individually) has been next to unstoppable on offense, but teams playing the Badgers in the tournament have actually been able to score a
good many points. And if there's any defense outside the NBA that can slow down Bo Ryan's team just enough, it's the Wildcats. I expect a productive night from Karl-Anthony Towns against a Wisconsin D that has blocked just five shots in 248 tournament possessions.
Pick: Kentucky 80, Wisconsin 78
Jeff Goodman:
A year ago, it was Aaron Harrison who provided the heroics to knock off the Badgers in the national semifinals. Both teams are better than they were last season, but the key will be whether Wisconsin's backcourt can
hang with Kentucky's. The teams' front lines are fairly evenly matched (although the Cats have more bodies), but it will come down to guys like Devin Booker for UK. Koenig doesn't get rattled often, and I think he'll step up and the Badgers will advance.
Pick: Wisconsin 68, Kentucky 67
Seth Greenberg:
Wisconsin has a complete team and one of the most versatile frontcourts in the country. Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky can all post, shoot the 3-pointer and put the ball on the deck. Their versatility will challenge Kentucky but I feel it is a challenge their bigs will handle. This game could be decided in the backcourt. In Wisconsin's losses, it struggled defending the ball off the bounce.
Kentucky gets in the lane, which gets them to the glass and makes Kaminsky guard Towns on the block. This
could get him in foul trouble and make it difficult for Bo Ryan's team to win.
Pick: Kentucky 70, Wisconsin 67
No. 7 Duke Blue Devils
Jay Bilas:
The Spartans can win if they can get on the glass and get out in transition and play ahead of Duke's defense. The Blue Devils were criticized earlier in the season for their defense not being on par with their offense. But, in the last month, Duke has been one of the best defensive teams among the tournament field. Justise Winslow. While Michigan State is fully capable of winning, I favor Duke to advance to Monday night's championship game.
Pick: Duke 72, Michigan State 69
Dan Dakich: MSU is like the fighter that came up the hard way and just refuses to lose. The Spartans get down early, figure it out, then Trice, Dawson and The Fight of the Century.
Pick: Michigan State 70, Duke 65
Sean Farnham:
Tom Izzo has Michigan State back in the Final Four, but the ride the Spartans have been on will stop in the national semis at the hands of Duke. The Spartans needed 18.8 percent shooting from Louisville to rally
to win in the Elite Eight, and Duke has too many weapons to shoot that poorly. The Blue Devils will get to the line as they did in November (20-for-26) when these teams met (Duke won 81-71). Tyus Jones continues to impress with 22 assists and only six turnovers in the four NCAA tournament games. Duke only had three turnovers against Gonzaga, so you can't count on the Blue Devils making mistakes.
Pick: Duke 73, Michigan State 69
Fran Fraschilla:
Jahlil Okafor made 8-of-10 shots in the first meeting versus Michigan State. The way he's been maligned lately, it makes me think he'll be highly motivated in his next-to-last college game. Duke prevails.
Pick: Duke 73, Michigan State 65
John Gasaway:
No team in Indianapolis has scored fewer points to get here than Michigan State, and the Spartans are catching Duke at a time when the Blue Devils are actually playing very good defense. The game will be close, and Travis Trice will be a headache for some unlucky Duke defender/defenders. But over 40 minutes, Okafor, the surging Winslow and a Blue Devil to be named later (Matt Jones?) will put enough points on the board to get to Monday night.
Pick: Duke 62, Michigan State 55
Jeff Goodman: The Blue Devils will make getting Okafor the priority in this one, and Izzo just won't have an answer for the big man. Winslow has been playing like an All-American lately, and if Matt Jones makes shots like he did the other night, Duke will be tough to beat. Izzo has done a tremendous job with this group, but this is where it ends for Sparty.
Pick: Duke 74, Michigan State 67
Seth Greenberg:
These teams are very different than when they met in the Champions Classic on Nov. 18. Duke is playing Winslow at power forward and Jones at the wing. This has made them a much better defensive team and a team in which all five players champion their roles. Winslow is a matchup nightmare at the four, both offensively and defensively. I think the Branden Dawson-Winslow matchup will be important. Michigan State is a connected defensive team. The Spartans are explosive offensively in transition and run sets that fit their personnel. The Trice-Cook matchup will be a battle of senior guards. Denzel Valentine could end up being a difference-maker. The biggest question is if Michigan State can contain Okafor.
Pick: Duke 72, Michigan State 68
This post was edited on 4/1 11:11 AM by Halldan1
