FINAL WEEKEND - ANY THOUGHTS ?

[SnakeTom]

FINAL WEEKEND BEFORE ELECTION - ANY THOUGHTS ?

I think the storm helped Obama. It gave him the chance to be seen in an important Presidential role rather than as a mere candidate on the stump. It also curtailed Romney's campaign. The latest polls indicate that the Romney surge has been halted. This actually started before the storm though. Romney's fortunes were rising until the third debate. I think it had more to do with the hard core base for each candidate rather than the debate however. Afterall there are very few undecideds left by this time. It will still be a very close election with a minority President (winning popular vote but losing electoral) still a very strong possibility.

Tom K

 

[Merge]

I am still holding my prediction, and I could see the effects of the storm impacting the election favorably for Obama.
Good (not great) jobs report out today with upward revisions of the prior two months. Romney's peak ended at the VP debate. Momentum has been slowing moving back towards Obama since then.

Obama wins with 303 electoral votes and over 50%.

His ceiling is 347 electoral votes and his floor is 259.
He needs 1 of Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida or win both New Hampshire and Colorado.

Of that group, I have him winning Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.

 

[JMM13]

Good jobs report?
How can you say that with a straight face (I'm making some assumptions there..... lol)

I believe you are misreading the signs if you think that Romney peaked at the VP debates.

I'll hold to my original prediction also.... Romney winning...going away..... by 5 - 8 points popular vote and a comfortable electoral college margin.

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by JMM13:

Good jobs report?
How can you say that with a straight face (I'm making some assumptions there..... lol)

I believe you are misreading the signs if you think that Romney peaked at the VP debates.

I'll hold to my original prediction also.... Romney winning...going away..... by 5 - 8 points popular vote and a comfortable electoral college margin.

Yes it is a good report.

600k added to the workforce and unemployment only goes up .1%. Good news
171k jobs added in the month. Good news
Involuntary part time workers down almost 300k Good news. Especially considering the unemployment rate.
College grad unemployment 3.8% - Good news
August and September revised upwards
August's initial report of jobs added was 96,000 - Revised number today is 192,000.

We are seeing growth and constant upward revisions each month. It is not great, but it is a good report.

I am not misreading signs. I follow the polling pretty closely.
The Princeton election consortium has done an outstanding job analyzing polling. Take a look at their electoral vote estimator over time. They predicted the 2004 election exactly correct, and the 2008 election within 1 electoral vote. They currently do not see Romney as having any chance at all based on their analysis.

This post was edited on 11/2 12:15 PM by Merge

This post was edited on 11/2 12:18 PM by Merge

 

[Merge]

by the way... suggesting that this will be within a 5-8% margin is absurd.

Obama is guaranteed a minimum of 40% of the electoral votes. No election in our history had a candidate winning 40% of the electoral votes and losing by 5%.

You are receiving some seriously distorted figures if you think that is possible.

 

[JMM13]

we'll see about the absurdity of my prediction

The proof will be in the outcome

Then maybe your prediction will be absurd

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by JMM13:

we'll see about the absurdity of my prediction

The proof will be in the outcome

Then maybe your prediction will be absurd

I am basing my expectation on actual polling data though. What are you basing yours on?

There is a small chance of Romney winning the election but there is absolutely no chance he wins the popular vote by close to 5%.

 

[Section112]

I think this jobs report does show positive signs but still a little hard to tell where things are going. Its not if one is good - its really if you see a consistent movement over a period of months that is indicative of progress.

I believe this will still be a close call and Romney has a shot. My thoughts are that Obama will win the electoral votes he needs to retain the Presidency but its far from over and it will be closer than many think. There are certainly going to be some surprises that the polls miss big time. I am still less than enamored with either guy. America can do soooo much better than these two.

 

[SnakeTom]

Originally posted by Section112:

I am still less than enamored with either guy. America can do soooo much better than these two.


I certainly agree with that 112.

Tom K

 

[SPK145]

There's a number of Republican pundits who say with conviction that the polls have been skewed Democrat and that Romney will, in fact, win the election. We'll see. If they are right, they are geniuses. If they are wrong, they should never be heard from again like James Carville should never be heard from again after saying in 2008 that the Republican Party would never be heard from again for 40 years. Only took two years, good call, asshat!! I'm talking to you, Dick Morris, Wayne Root, et al.

BTW, the most accurate polls in 2008 were Rasmussen first and Pew Center second. Both have it tied in most recent polling.

I think it ls is going to be razor close. Romney has a chance but I still think Obama is a slight favorite.

This post was edited on 11/2 2:22 PM by SPK145

Most Accurate 2008 Polls

 

[Merge]

and not to pat myself on the back.... but I had to dig up an old conversation.

Originally posted by Merge:

If you draw a trend line since inauguration day, employment is getting better, albeit slow... but combine that with current a solid jobs report in September and October and Romney's argument would be over.



Originally posted by HALL85:
Keep living that fantasy hoping for that solid jobs report in September and October...everything points to the contrary. I don't think Obama would be wise to do four year trending lines on unemployment....if he does that he can also put that target on his back that says "Hit Me".

and here is the trendline

 

[SnakeTom]

It seems that everyone on this board thinks the election will be extremely close with the exception of two posters. They are Muggsy who predicted Obama by over 5% and JMM who predicts Romney by over 5%. Does this mean that JMM or Muggsy are wrong? Of course not. Anything can happen and we really will not know the answer until Wednesday morning. Most polls right now give Obama a slight edge but as Tom Dewey well knew polls can be very wrong at times.

Tom K

 

[Pirate6711]

The popular vote is going to be very close, but I think Obama is going to break the 300 vote mark with Electoral College. Once Ohio is announced, it will be over.

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by SPK145:

BTW, the most accurate polls in 2008 were Rasmussen first and Pew Center second. Both have it tied in most recent polling.

I think it ls is going to be razor close. Romney has a chance but I still think Obama is a slight favorite.

This post was edited on 11/2 2:22 PM by SPK145

They were the most accurate pollsters who were both +5 for Romney in recent polls btw, but no one saw the election like the Princeton election consortium.

In 2008
They were off by 1 electoral vote. No one else was that close.
They were off by 0.3% of the popular vote.
They were off by 1 in the senate and 0 in congress.

They currently have Obama to win with a 97% probability.

Nate Silver is also showing an Obama win with over a 80% probability.

 

[SPK145]

The Princeton Election Consortium goes the other way, they have it Obama 319, Romney 219 in the electoral vote, way higher than any other Democrat pundit has it.

Interesting.

 

[SPK145]

Last week I had it Romney 263, Obama 257 with Ohio up in the air. Ohio is still up in the air but it could be Obama 263, Romney 257 now.

 

[SnakeTom]

FWIW Nate Silver was correct on 49 out of the 50 states in 2008. Right now he has Obama with 303 electoral votes. Silver who is primarily a sports statastition had an interesting analogy. It's like a football team with a 3 point lead with 3 minutes to go. That team will win 78% of the time but not always. He sees this election as the same giving OB a 78% chance to win.

Tom K

 

[thehall07]

Obama wins but it will be close...both suck and America is screwed either way.

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by thehall07:

Obama wins but it will be close...both suck and America is screwed either way.

Excuse my optimism, but I don't agree. I think we will be fine either way.

I think Moody's is right that we will see more rapid job growth with either candidate over the next 4 years. Too many signs pointing to that being the case right now.

Once there is some more certainty (and I believe there will be) jobs will really start to bounce back.

 

[thehall07]

I dont see it, I hope I am wrong but I don't see labor prices going that low to bring back manufacturing to the US.

The undereducated in the US don't have anywhere to turn to and the educated are fighting for jobs that are "under their pay grades" in most cases.

Towns/States are still going to go bankrupt with public and state workers double dipping and retiring with 80% pay.



Clinton had the internet boom and the stupid Y2K "panic"…without new technologies and or sectors to allow for grown I think we will be stuck…


I could go on but maybe everything will work out.

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by thehall07:


I dont see it, I hope I am wrong but I don't see labor prices going that low to bring back manufacturing to the US.

The undereducated in the US don't have anywhere to turn to and the educated are fighting for jobs that are "under their pay grades" in most cases.

Towns/States are still going to go bankrupt with public and state workers double dipping and retiring with 80% pay.



Clinton had the internet boom and the stupid Y2K "panic"…without new technologies and or sectors to allow for grown I think we will be stuck…


I could go on but maybe everything will work out.

Manufacturing is coming back and is expected to continue.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesleadershipforum/2012/09/21/manufacturing-may-be-coming-back-to-the-u-s-long-term/

Tax changes and incentives will help fuel that growth when they happen (and they have to happen no matter who wins)

We are in the middle of an energy boom in the US, which is going to continue to grow. That is this generations internet bubble, although it will not grow as fast, the plus side is that it will not collapse as fast either.

 

[Muggsy Blue]

I'm stickin'

 

[SnakeTom]

Originally posted by Merge:

Originally posted by thehall07:

Obama wins but it will be close...both suck and America is screwed either way.

Excuse my optimism, but I don't agree. I think we will be fine either way.

I think Moody's is right that we will see more rapid job growth with either candidate over the next 4 years. Too many signs pointing to that being the case right now.

Once there is some more certainty (and I believe there will be) jobs will really start to bounce back.

I agree with merge here. while I'm not crazy about either candidate I do think we will be fine regardless of who wins and the economy will tick upward either way.

Tom K

 

[Muggsy Blue]

We won't be fine if Romney wins. There could be two Supreme Court Justice appointments riding on this election.

 

[Section112]

What is your point Muggsy? Can't Republican appointees be fair? Of course they can. Justice Blackmun was appointed by Nixon and he wrote the ruling on Roe vs. Wade. In fact 5 Republican nominated judges voted in favor or Roe vs. Wade. Sandra day O'Connor was appointed by Reagan and was a stalwart for planned parenthood and was very fair during her career. Judge Roberts was appointed by Bush and he has been extremely fair and was the deciding vote on keep Obamacare.

You are simply repeating the stuff you hear from your liberal buddies and the press but what you say is about fear and not truth. Don't forget that there is also an approval process that these judges have to go through and they have to get approved by both parties.

 

[SnakeTom]

Sandra Day O'Connor was one of the greatest justices of our time because she treated each case individually based on the facts and law rather than adhearing to a political agenda and she was appointed by President Reagan.

Tom K

 

[Muggsy Blue]

I'll take my chances with Obama's appointments, thank you. And by the way, not all my buddies are liberal, a few less brighter ones are conservative. Those are the ones always looking to fatten their wallets.

 

[HALL85]

Originally posted by thehall07:



I dont see it, I hope I am wrong but I don't see labor prices going that low to bring back manufacturing to the US.

The undereducated in the US don't have anywhere to turn to and the educated are fighting for jobs that are "under their pay grades" in most cases.

Towns/States are still going to go bankrupt with public and state workers double dipping and retiring with 80% pay.



Clinton had the internet boom and the stupid Y2K "panic"…without new technologies and or sectors to allow for grown I think we will be stuck…


I could go on but maybe everything will work out.

I tend to agree with 07...there are too many negative trends that will continue and very few seem willing to confront. I guess the exploding deficit doesn't seem to bother anyone?

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by HALL85:

Originally posted by thehall07:



I dont see it, I hope I am wrong but I don't see labor prices going that low to bring back manufacturing to the US.

The undereducated in the US don't have anywhere to turn to and the educated are fighting for jobs that are "under their pay grades" in most cases.

Towns/States are still going to go bankrupt with public and state workers double dipping and retiring with 80% pay.



Clinton had the internet boom and the stupid Y2K "panic"…without new technologies and or sectors to allow for grown I think we will be stuck…


I could go on but maybe everything will work out.

I tend to agree with 07...there are too many negative trends that will continue and very few seem willing to confront. I guess the exploding deficit doesn't seem to bother anyone?

Exploding deficit?
It has been shrinking pretty much every quarter and is on pace to get to Reagan levels as a percentage of GDP this year.

 

[JMM13]

Originally posted by Muggsy Blue:
We won't be fine if Romney wins. There could be two Supreme Court Justice appointments riding on this election.

We won't be fine if Obama wins. There could be two Supreme Court Justice appointments riding on this election.

 

[HALL85]

Originally posted by Merge:

Originally posted by HALL85:

Originally posted by thehall07:




I dont see it, I hope I am wrong but I don't see labor prices going that low to bring back manufacturing to the US.

The undereducated in the US don't have anywhere to turn to and the educated are fighting for jobs that are "under their pay grades" in most cases.

Towns/States are still going to go bankrupt with public and state workers double dipping and retiring with 80% pay.



Clinton had the internet boom and the stupid Y2K "panic"…without new technologies and or sectors to allow for grown I think we will be stuck…


I could go on but maybe everything will work out.

I tend to agree with 07...there are too many negative trends that will continue and very few seem willing to confront. I guess the exploding deficit doesn't seem to bother anyone?

Exploding deficit?
It has been shrinking pretty much every quarter and is on pace to get to Reagan levels as a percentage of GDP this year.

We have ADDED over $4.6 trillion to the national debt during Obama's administration. So if you're telling me that even though your personal credit card bills exceed your income each month, if the difference is slowly decreasing, you are making progress??? You're still running at a history making deficit!!! And outside of letting the tax cuts expire, he has no plan whatsoever of reducing the deficit.

 

[Merge]

Well then you should have said debt.... and not "exploding deficit"

We are addressing the deficit, it is shrinking and on track to continue to do so and I believe we will see a tax reform bill which will help close that gap more quickly.

and I am sorry, but I will just not agree with adding that amount of debt to the burden of Obama's presidency. Our debt is attributed to a gross miscalculation on the amount of revenue in 2009 which was not Obama's budget combined with paying for two wars and funding an economic recovery.

Obama could have gone with severe austerity which would have collapsed our economy, or increased spending to ensure that we stopped the bleeding, which we did.

 

[HALL85]

$4.6 additional debt, by most definitions would be characterized as exploding...

So you're blaming the accountants for the deficit now?

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by HALL85:

$4.6 additional debt, by most definitions would be characterized as exploding...

So you're blaming the accountants for the deficit now?

You said deficit, which is what I objected to and I do not believe that any president elected in 2008 would have seen that number be substantially different especially considering the shortfall from the predecessors budget in their first year.

I just think that is you are making that argument... you should make it with context.

 

[Merge]

As I was saying... Too many signs we are heading towards faster growth no matter who wins.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-05/economy-set-for-better-times-whether-obama-or-romney-wins.html

 

[HALL85]

You object to me bringing up the deficit???

Just because Obama couldn't address it successfully, you've made the assumption that no one could...interesting. Why should I even bother debating this with you??

 

[SnakeTom]

The election is tomorrow and the one big positive as far as I'm concerned is no more TV ads from Linda McMahon. I just wonder how much money she put into her campaign with all those ads on NY TV that doesn't even reach most Connecticut voters. Not saying that she would be good or bad in office just that her ads every few minutes are so annoying.

TK

 

[Merge]

Originally posted by HALL85:
You object to me bringing up the deficit???

Just because Obama couldn't address it successfully, you've made the assumption that no one could...interesting. Why should I even bother debating this with you??

We can debate the deficit, as long as you are willing to put in context. I objected to you calling it an "exploding deficit" which it is not.

 

[HALL85]

Sorry, but a $4.6 trillion increase is exploding....I object to you making it sound immaterial.

 

[Merge]

The deficit and debt are different things. Calling our deficit exploding while it is on its way back down to 3% of gdp by 2016 doesn't seem very accurate to me. It is not like Obama invented deficit spending. Our debt tripled under Reagan, and doubled under Bush.... but Obama increasing it by 37% in is first term sparks outrage?

2009's deficit was going to be over a trillion based on the budget that was created. We spend additional money for things like unemployment benefits. What Obama faced coming into office was that he would either have to spend his way out of a recession, or go through austerity measures.

My opinion is that spending was the right thing to do and that austerity would have crippled us. Most signs are pointing towards a strong recovery over the next 4 years. I think the added debt was the right thing to do for the time. As we recover, we will need to cut programs we can cut and we will need to increase revenue.