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Gaming college basketball NET rankings

Halldan1

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Jan 1, 2003
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We live in a time in media where something is either the best or it sucks. Absolutes only. Well, often times more than one thing can be true at once.

Case in point: the Big 12 is the best basketball conference. That's my opinion, I believe it to be a fact. They currently have 10 teams in the top 45 in the NET rankings. About that ... the comments from Clemson Tigers coach Brad Brownell point out another truth. The Big 12 has effectively manipulated those NET rankings in a way that benefits them significantly.

On WCCP radio, Brownell pointed out how the out-of-conference scheduling of the Big 12 helps ensure higher NET rankings so that once they play in-conference games, everyone benefits because you're only head-to-head with highly ranked teams.

Regarding that out-of-conference, Brownell said, "They're playing 300-level teams and winning by 40 and 50 points to increase their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, which is a big part of the NET tool." I would interject to say that's not entirely correct -- the quality of the opponent is taken into account. Brownell added, "Our league has zero teams in the top 50 of the NET that have a nonconference strength of schedule 250 or higher. The Big 12 has six teams."

I appreciate a coach being willing to name names -- which Brownell did. Specifically pointing out the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones as examples of out-of-conference schedules that were -- to use his word -- awful. Now, that is an opinion ... so I looked. Hard to argue it's not a fact.

Here's where fans get mad -- so Cyclone fans, please listen to me. I know you're good because you are. But look at your out-of-conference and you see exactly what Brownell is talking about. Outside of a big win over in-state rival Iowa, it's mostly 40-point blowouts versus hopelessly overmatched teams. It also includes losses to the Texas A&M Aggies and the ACC's own Virginia Tech Hokies. Which, no shock, Brownell mentioned in noting the ACC is 9-3 against the Big 12 this season.

That includes Clemson's win over the TCU Horned Frogs. Again quoting Brownell, "We played TCU, beat TCU, TCU's doing well in the Big 12. And I remember preparing for the TCU game and telling my staff, 'Look who they've played.' They haven't played anybody. Every game is Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist. We're getting ready to play them and we've already played a really hard schedule. But look at their NET. Their NET rankings get up and then when they beat each other up, they don't have bad losses."

And that, as I mentioned earlier, is the way you game this one particular data point the committee uses. You have a cheat code if you can artificially bump your NET ranking out of conference, you're effectively depositing money you draw down against in conference play.

If this sounds like preemptive sour grapes from the Tigers coach, it's not. Clemson is 23 in the NET and 24 in KenPom -- they're a tournament team this year. But he does think it played a role in keeping Clemson out last year.

As I said at the start, more than one thing can be true at once. As I always say, there are facts and opinions. My opinion is that the Big 12 is the best conference. The non conference schedule numbers are facts. But you can use the bug in the system to your advantage, which they have.

I'd add one more fact to this: The ACC can do the exact same thing next season. Nobody is stopping you. Schedule accordingly.
 
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I think this is all why there’s a Committee. In a behemoth of a sport with 362 teams you can’t watch everything and follow the trends of every individual team, but by the time March rolls around the scope is narrowed and they can dig in. The NET has its flaws just like any metric but you’re supposed to be applying analysis to it. A team may have a glamorous NET but when you peel it back the resume lacks. Every year there are teams that have strong NET that don’t make it.

But you also have to make sure you destroy those bad teams but HUGE margins.

The NET also creates a lot of buzz for the sport with the daily commentary on it. And it starts way early. When Seton Hall’s was #113 or something in December we were talking about it.
 
I don't like how it is potentially affecting seeding. If SHU had the same exact record with the same opponents with much better metrics such as FG%, Assist/Turnover ratio and beat teams by a few more points they would probably have a better seed and not worry about the bubble.

This just instigates taking advantage of the NET loopholes to secure bids. SHU and the Big East should follow it based on what happens this Selection Sunday
 
But you also have to make sure you destroy those bad teams but HUGE margins.
Yes, everyone seems to assume destroying bad teams is a given. Good teams destroy bad teams. Bad teams do not destroy other bad teams. Look at Georgetown. They played a bunch of cream puffs in the OOC and destroyed almost none of them. Why? Because Georgetown sucks. You can't manipulate the NET if you aren't any good.

While I do think there's merit to the argument that some good teams end up with an inflated NET because they beat up on weaker opponents, it happens mostly with the exceptional mid majors who steamroll their conferences (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, etc.). For the power 6 schools, scheduling a bunch of sub-300 teams in the OOC is a dangerous game. Maybe you end up with an inflated NET. Maybe you lose one or two and your season is dead before it even starts.
 
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Blowing out teams by keeping your starters in until the end to manipulate the NET is really bad form and it should not be encouraged by the NET. Max it out so you can't get any additional credit to your NET if you win by 10+. If you hit the metric with a 10 point win it helps but if you win by 20 or 30 what does it really prove? It proves you played a bad team that is it really.
 
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Very few coaches put their end of bench players in even up 20 - 30 pts until super late in game if ever.

Sha is doing this less than he did last year, while gets your young players experience and reward their hard work in practice, it can really hurt your metrics that what could have easily been a 30 pt win becomes a 15 pt win with offensive and defensive efficiency (10 pt cap aside) effieciences are still being accrued.
 
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"With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET."

Is this statement not correct?
 
What is net formula and does committee use it as major metric in deciding field ?
 
That NET thing has been broken, and just seems to be something for media to create stories to bring discord and readers. We win and we drop, makes no sense and we're not the only team who experienced this. I really hope they don't use it a heavily as they say, and use more reliable sources for deciding, SOS, away/home records, Top25 wins, Quadrant records etc.
 
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Blowing out teams by keeping your starters in until the end to manipulate the NET is really bad form and it should not be encouraged by the NET. Max it out so you can't get any additional credit to your NET if you win by 10+. If you hit the metric with a 10 point win it helps but if you win by 20 or 30 what does it really prove? It proves you played a bad team that is it really.
How do you do that with offensive and defensive efficiency measures?
 
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