Jeff GoodmanESPN Insider
These rankings go in descending order, from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job.
John Groce, Illinois Fighting Illini
Fifth season, 77-61
Groce, 44, was looking good after a couple years in Champaign. There was a 23-win campaign and an NCAA appearance in his first season, and 20 wins in his second. The third year was solid with a 19-14 mark and another NIT berth, but last season was a mess at 15-19, a 12th-place finish in the league and a rash of off-court issues that have his future in jeopardy. It won't help that there is a new athletic director, Josh Whitman, who took over in February. Groce's deal runs through 2019 and pays about $1.7 million per year, but this will be a make-or-break year for Groce.
Richard Pitino, Minnesota Golden Gophers
Fourth season, 51-51
It doesn't look great for Pitino at Minnesota these days. He has a new athletic director in Mark Coyle, is coming off an 8-23 season and has dealt with several off-court issues with his players (some now ex-players). The AD who hired him, Norwood Teague, is gone -- as is his right-hand man and former associate AD, Mike Ellis. Pitino, 33, is under contract through 2021, but he can't go 2-16 in Big Ten play again and expect to keep his job.
Pat Chambers, Penn State Nittany Lions
Sixth season, 72-91
It's all about realistic expectations for Penn State basketball. Since 2001, the Nittany Lions have gone to the NCAA tourney just once, in 2011. Chambers has made Penn State more competitive over the past couple of years, but the program still isn't much of a factor in the league or nationally. His deal runs through 2019, and he welcomes in a heralded recruiting class. The next couple of years will determine Chambers' fate in Happy Valley.
Tim Miles, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fifth season, 63-67
The worst thing Miles could have done, in a way, was go to the NCAA tournament in his second season in Lincoln. It raised expectations to an unfair level. This was a program that hadn't gone dancing in 16 years prior to that appearance in 2014. The past two years have been more of what we'd come to expect from Nebraska basketball: 29 total wins and 11 in league play. Miles, 49, is well-liked, and he has a contract through 2020 that pays about $2 million a year. But he will need to move forward and not back if he wants to stay at Nebraska for a while longer.
John Beilein, Michigan Wolverines
10th season, 189-123
Beilein has taken the Wolverines to the NCAA tournament in five of the past six seasons, and he went to the national title game in 2013, which was followed by an Elite Eight appearance. It's unfair to expect him to sustain that level, but Michigan has fallen off lately. Beilein is 63 years old and received a two-year extension a year ago that takes him until 2021. He's safe in Ann Arbor, but how much longer will he coach?
Tom Crean, Indiana Hoosiers
Ninth season, 148-119
Crean had been on the hot seat the past couple of seasons, but he can breathe a sigh of relief after a strong 27-8 campaign that culminated in a Sweet 16 appearance. Things can change in a hurry, though, in Bloomington. But as long as the Hoosiers get to the NCAA tourney this coming season (which should happen), Crean's job security will improve over what it was entering last season. There's a lot of long-term uncertainty, however, with Crean and IU, especially because Indiana is considered one of the elite jobs in the country. He signed a 10-year deal in 2010 that expires in a few years.
Thad Matta, Ohio State Buckeyes
13th season, 320-108
This is a tough one because Matta marches to the beat of a different drum than a lot of his colleagues. He's 49, has gone to the NCAA tourney in nine of his 12 seasons and has advanced to the second weekend on five occasions. Sure, the Buckeyes are coming off a disappointing season, but he has built up no shortage of equity. Matta won't coach into his 60s. His current deal runs through 2019.
