East Regional
No. 11 USC Trojans vs. No. 6 SMU Mustangs (-6.5)
Friday, 3:10 p.m., Tulsa, Oklahoma
Over/under: 139.5
Tuley's take: USC earned its spot in the NCAA field by rallying from a 17-point, second-half deficit to beat Providence 75-71 in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. This is nothing new as the Trojans have rallied from double-digit deficits 12 times this season, most in the nation.
I'm fully aware of how good SMU is -- I have them going to the Sweet 16 in most of my brackets and winning this game in 90 percent of my brackets -- but when it comes to betting the game I'm taking USC with the points. The key is putting two halves together, as I wouldn't want to count on the Trojans rallying from a big deficit to get in the back door (though it's nice to know they're capable of it). The Trojans also have the advantage of being a team playing with house money, one some people think shouldn't have even made it into the field. We've seen similar runs with VCU in 2011 and Syracuse last year, to name a few. And lastly, USC actually defeated this SMU team (78-73 back in November) so I have to believe the Trojans don't see themselves as the underdogs.
Even though SMU was the stronger team throughout the season, I still can't see this being a rout.
The pick: USC +6.5*
No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (-1)
Friday, 9:50 p.m., Greenville, South Carolina
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent pick Marquette
Over/under: 147.5
Lange: Did South Carolina peak too soon? The Gamecocks raced out to a 19-4 start and 9-1 mark in SEC play, but looked worn down the last month of the season. They lost five of eight and managed to cover only one point spread during that span.
Marquette is trying to do one thing and one thing only: outscore teams. And when the shots are falling, this team is tough to beat. But when met with resistance -- which the Golden Eagles will see plenty of against South Carolina's top-tier defense -- it isn't pretty. The Golden Eagles won 19 games and only three times in those 19 games did they fail to top 80 points. It didn't happen often, but when Marquette was held below 70 points, it went 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS -- the lone point spread cover coming by a half-point.
South Carolina, which will be playing 100 miles from campus in Greenville, really sells out to defend the 3-point shot; opponents made just 30 percent of their attempts. Marquette, meanwhile, not only took a ton of 3s but also made an NCAA-best 43 percent. Small lean toward South Carolina, which should be able to limit Marquette's ability to shot from the outside.
The pick: lean South Carolina
No. 14 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-12.5)
Friday, 12:40 p.m., Tulsa
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick New Mexico State
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: This Baylor team comes in as a No. 3 seed, but it certainly hasn't looked like one lately and nowhere near the team that was No. 1 in the AP poll in January. Instead, the Bears went 3-4 SU down the stretch and were knocked out of the Big 12 tourney by bubble team Kansas State. It looks like Johnathan Motley (17.5 PPG, 10 RPG) will be able to go for Baylor after injuring a finger last week, but the Bears look more like a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. This makes me like the fact we're getting so many points with a New Mexico State team that knows how to win (28-5 SU and 3-2 ATS).
Yes, the Aggies' level of competition is far worse in the WAC and they didn't face any power conference teams, but we've seen over the years that doesn't always matter. Ian Baker was the WAC player of the year and this is his chance to show he can play with the big boys. New Mexico State hits the glass hard and should have success with second-chance opportunities on the offensive end and keeping Baylor from the same. If Baylor isn't careful, the Bears could make another early exit -- and even if they prevail, I like the Aggies to make them work for it.
The pick: New Mexico State +12.5*
No. 15 Troy Trojans vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-19)
Friday, 7:20 p.m., Greenville
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Troy
Over/under: 153
Lange: A quick look back at Duke's performance against non-power-conference teams shows that all eight lined games went under the total. Against power conference foes, the Blue Devils went 17-9 over/under. I think that dichotomy is a good example of how the "big favorite and high total" profile can be a profitable one to bet the under (the average point spread and total in those eight games was Duke -26 and 152). Lack of fouls and thus free throws, as well as the favorite working more clock than usual late in the game, are generally two contributing factors.
There's no guarantee, however, that Duke can "name the score" in this matchup. Troy is probably closer to a 14th seed in terms of ability and showed as much in an 82-77 loss at Southern California in December in which it led by as many as 10 in the second half. But one performance doesn't shake the reality that the Blue Devils will have advantages at every position and should pull away at some point. And for all the flak I give Duke's defense, in those eight aforementioned nonconference games that went under the total, the Blue Devils allowed only 56.8 points per game.
The pick: under 153
No. 11 USC Trojans vs. No. 6 SMU Mustangs (-6.5)
Friday, 3:10 p.m., Tulsa, Oklahoma
Over/under: 139.5
Tuley's take: USC earned its spot in the NCAA field by rallying from a 17-point, second-half deficit to beat Providence 75-71 in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. This is nothing new as the Trojans have rallied from double-digit deficits 12 times this season, most in the nation.
I'm fully aware of how good SMU is -- I have them going to the Sweet 16 in most of my brackets and winning this game in 90 percent of my brackets -- but when it comes to betting the game I'm taking USC with the points. The key is putting two halves together, as I wouldn't want to count on the Trojans rallying from a big deficit to get in the back door (though it's nice to know they're capable of it). The Trojans also have the advantage of being a team playing with house money, one some people think shouldn't have even made it into the field. We've seen similar runs with VCU in 2011 and Syracuse last year, to name a few. And lastly, USC actually defeated this SMU team (78-73 back in November) so I have to believe the Trojans don't see themselves as the underdogs.
Even though SMU was the stronger team throughout the season, I still can't see this being a rout.
The pick: USC +6.5*
No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (-1)
Friday, 9:50 p.m., Greenville, South Carolina
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent pick Marquette
Over/under: 147.5
Lange: Did South Carolina peak too soon? The Gamecocks raced out to a 19-4 start and 9-1 mark in SEC play, but looked worn down the last month of the season. They lost five of eight and managed to cover only one point spread during that span.
Marquette is trying to do one thing and one thing only: outscore teams. And when the shots are falling, this team is tough to beat. But when met with resistance -- which the Golden Eagles will see plenty of against South Carolina's top-tier defense -- it isn't pretty. The Golden Eagles won 19 games and only three times in those 19 games did they fail to top 80 points. It didn't happen often, but when Marquette was held below 70 points, it went 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS -- the lone point spread cover coming by a half-point.
South Carolina, which will be playing 100 miles from campus in Greenville, really sells out to defend the 3-point shot; opponents made just 30 percent of their attempts. Marquette, meanwhile, not only took a ton of 3s but also made an NCAA-best 43 percent. Small lean toward South Carolina, which should be able to limit Marquette's ability to shot from the outside.
The pick: lean South Carolina
No. 14 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-12.5)
Friday, 12:40 p.m., Tulsa
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick New Mexico State
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: This Baylor team comes in as a No. 3 seed, but it certainly hasn't looked like one lately and nowhere near the team that was No. 1 in the AP poll in January. Instead, the Bears went 3-4 SU down the stretch and were knocked out of the Big 12 tourney by bubble team Kansas State. It looks like Johnathan Motley (17.5 PPG, 10 RPG) will be able to go for Baylor after injuring a finger last week, but the Bears look more like a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. This makes me like the fact we're getting so many points with a New Mexico State team that knows how to win (28-5 SU and 3-2 ATS).
Yes, the Aggies' level of competition is far worse in the WAC and they didn't face any power conference teams, but we've seen over the years that doesn't always matter. Ian Baker was the WAC player of the year and this is his chance to show he can play with the big boys. New Mexico State hits the glass hard and should have success with second-chance opportunities on the offensive end and keeping Baylor from the same. If Baylor isn't careful, the Bears could make another early exit -- and even if they prevail, I like the Aggies to make them work for it.
The pick: New Mexico State +12.5*
No. 15 Troy Trojans vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-19)
Friday, 7:20 p.m., Greenville
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Troy
Over/under: 153
Lange: A quick look back at Duke's performance against non-power-conference teams shows that all eight lined games went under the total. Against power conference foes, the Blue Devils went 17-9 over/under. I think that dichotomy is a good example of how the "big favorite and high total" profile can be a profitable one to bet the under (the average point spread and total in those eight games was Duke -26 and 152). Lack of fouls and thus free throws, as well as the favorite working more clock than usual late in the game, are generally two contributing factors.
There's no guarantee, however, that Duke can "name the score" in this matchup. Troy is probably closer to a 14th seed in terms of ability and showed as much in an 82-77 loss at Southern California in December in which it led by as many as 10 in the second half. But one performance doesn't shake the reality that the Blue Devils will have advantages at every position and should pull away at some point. And for all the flak I give Duke's defense, in those eight aforementioned nonconference games that went under the total, the Blue Devils allowed only 56.8 points per game.
The pick: under 153
