- Dave Tuley Andrew Lange/ESPN
Tuley, after going 3-0 ATS with best bets on Thursday, was 2-1 ATS on Friday with USC and Rhode Island winning outright and New Mexico State losing the cover against Baylor after leading outright at halftime. Tuley lost his only over/under best bet on the Miami (Fla.)-Michigan State under to fall to 1-2 with O/U best bets. Tuley is 4-3 with O/U leans but not doing as well with ATS leans at 0-3 (but that's why they're leans).
Lange, after also going 3-0 ATS with best bets on Thursday, didn't have an ATS best bet on Friday. He went 1-2 with O/U best bets and stands at 2-3 after the first round. Lange was 1-0-1 with ATS leans to improve to 1-2-1 ATS with those plays and is 0-1 with O/U leans.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon. Times are Eastern.
No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
Greenville, South Carolina, Sunday, 8:40 p.m.
Over/under: 142
Lange: It's March, when teams like South Carolina -- who finished 11th in offensive efficiency in a watered down SEC -- score 93 points in the NCAA tournament. Make no mistake, Marquette's defense is downright putrid, but I've watched enough of the Gamecocks to know that their performance is very unlikely to carry over to the next game.
This is an opponent that Duke can handle on the defensive end. Against the bottom seven teams in terms of offensive efficiency in ACC play, the Blue Devils surrendered a very respectable 64.8 points per game. It was against the remainder of the league that Duke -- like a lot of teams -- had troubles (80.8 PPG allowed). I have not made a play on this game, though I would look under if it gets to 144.
The pick: lean under
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 2 Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)
Indianapolis, Indiana, Sunday, 12:10 p.m.
Current total: 141
Lange: Michigan scored 92 points on 65 possessions in its noncovering win over Oklahoma State. They shot an incredible 16-of-26 (55 percent) from 3-point range and missed only four free throws out of 22 attempts. That was arguably the best offensive performance of the tournament so far. And they only won by a single point. The Wolverines are too well-coached and disciplined to develop bad habits overnight, but what they'll face in Louisville's defense is not going to be an easy adjustment.
Louisville also had an easy go of it offensively as it netted 1.30 points per possession in a slow paced 78-63 win over Jacksonville State. With two teams that had such an easy go of it offensively in the first round, I'm more inclined to look for a bit of regression with the short turnaround. Would lean under in this one at 141.
The pick: lean under
No. 10 Wichita State Shockers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (-4.5)
Indianapolis, Indiana, Sunday, 2:40 p.m.
Current total: 153.5
Lange: Wichita State has played its fair share of high-possession games thanks to simply outclassing the competition. There's no point in playing methodical half-court basketball against inferior Missouri Valley Conference foes. But when it's time to buckle down and the competition steps up, the Shockers become far more patient offensively as well as far more potent defensively. Friday's win over Dayton illustrated just that as the game had only 64 possessions and the Flyers were held to a paltry 31 percent from the floor.
Kentucky was never really threatened in its 79-70 win over Northern Kentucky. But it was a choppy showing from the Wildcats who shot only 3-of-17 (18 percent) from 3-point land. Per usual, John Calipari said not to worry, UK "will be fine."
In the end, I don't think this is going to be a track-meet type of game. We'll see some transition opportunities, but I think Gregg Marshall knows his squad wins this game by making Kentucky work for shots and points in the half court.
The pick: under
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-8) vs. No. 9 Michigan State Spartans
Tulsa, Oklahoma, Sunday, 5:15 p.m.
Over/under: 148
Tuley's Take: First of all, I'd like to say this is the game I like least of the four Sunday games I'm previewing, but it is growing on me. Michigan State's Tom Izzo has a reputation of being one of the best coaches in the nation and getting his teams to peak at this time of year. It didn't look like that would be the case this season after the Spartans could only earn a No. 9 seed, but here he is after whipping Miami 78-58 in the first round. Izzo went with four freshmen in the starting lineup, and they combined for 57 of the team's 78 points. Granted, Nick Ward, Miles Bridges, Cassius Winston and Joshua Langford aren't going to be confused with the Fab Four of MSU's biggest rival Michigan, but it does make one wonder how much upside they have.
Michigan State faces a huge test in Kansas, but I think the youngsters can hang with the Jayhawks. As talented as the Jayhawks are, Kansas has tended to play down to the level of its competition many times this season (remember the loss to TCU) and is a woeful 12-18-1 ATS. The only reservation I have with this play is that I was hoping to get a few more points, but obviously oddsmakers are anticipating plenty of bettors giving Izzo the benefit of the doubt and taking him as an underdog. So I'll call it a lean for now but would jump in if the line creeps higher.
The pick: lean to Michigan State +8
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-11)
Greenville, South Carolina, Sunday, 6:10 p.m.
Current total: 161.5
Lange: As I said in my analysis of the Seton Hall-Arkansas game, Arkansas doesn't play as fast as a lot of folks think (93rd nationally in tempo). That said, the Razorbacks aren't going to shy away from pace against North Carolina. And we know the Tar Heels are all about pushing the tempo, as they put up 103 points in their first-round blowout over Texas Southern.
I'm more intrigued, however, by how Arkansas will perform when asked to step up in class. They lost to Florida at home 81-72 -- a somewhat deceiving box score as the Gators were up 14 with a minute to go. In the second meeting, Florida won comfortably by 13 in Gainesville. Oklahoma State worked over the Razorbacks 99-71. And Kentucky dominated both meetings, 97-71 and 82-65. That's five losses, four by blowout, and the other fortunate to be decided by nine. And Arkansas never sniffed a point-spread cover. Not the type of body of work I'm looking for when the Razorbacks are pitted up against a team I have power rated higher than all three of the aforementioned squads.
The pick: North Carolina
