Is the Big East overrated?

[Halldan1]

We'll have a better idea after Saturday

Kenpom

4 Villanova 8-1 .9329 Sat, at 1 Virginia (L, 64-60, 30%)

29 Butler 8-1 .8413 Sat, vs 3 Purdue (L, 81-73, 25%)

53 Seton Hall 8-2 .7607 Sat, vs 32 Wichita St. (W, 65-64, 56%)

58 Creighton 7-3 .7474 Sat, at 2 Oklahoma (L, 88-72, 9%)

177 DePaul 5-5 .4804 Sat, vs 56 Northwestern (L, 70-66, 37%)

 

[Vegas pj]

If I understand this correctly, Kenpom predicting a 56% chance of SH knocking off WSU at home by 1 and the other 4 BE teams all losing. Severe test of computer algorithms this Saturday.

 

[Halldan1]

Obviously Wichita State's rating has been effected by injuries. Otherwise they would be a top 10 or so team.

 

[anon_4htvdezyfe7k9]

No idea what goes into that algorithm, but surprised it has us winning, if even by 1 point.

Haven't seen any Vegas odds yet, but I'm sure WS is favored against us. Would love to see a head to head comparison of some kind between Kenpom and the Vegas sports books.

 

[TomD82]

DePaul also got beat by 19 pts. by Stanford last night. Game followed GT Monmouth on FS1.

 

[anon_4htvdezyfe7k9]

Obviously Wichita State's rating has been effected by injuries. Otherwise they would be a top 10 or so team.

So assuming Kenpom is 100% quantitative, it doesn't take into account game's impacted by past injuries, or by current injuries? Or any other qualitative data, like the fact that we will likely have little to no home-court advantage Saturday because our students are on winter break? If that's the case, seems like a very flawed system.

 

[Vegas pj]

So assuming Kenpom is 100% quantitative, it doesn't take into account game's impacted by past injuries, or by current injuries? Or any other qualitative data, like the fact that we will likely have little to no home-court advantage Saturday because our students are on winter break? If that's the case, seems like a very flawed system.

That's why they have sports books out here. They're quantitative , qualitative and they're algorithms, whatever the heck they are, and are usually right on the money.$$$$$$

 

[Stickboy46]

So assuming Kenpom is 100% quantitative, it doesn't take into account game's impacted by past injuries, or by current injuries? Or any other qualitative data, like the fact that we will likely have little to no home-court advantage Saturday because our students are on winter break? If that's the case, seems like a very flawed system.

I think certain systems DO take into account injuries (i believe Kenpom does), but I would have a hard time believing it can really take into account an injury to someone as important to a team as Van Vleet is to WSU. That's a different level of injury to account for.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

I think the Big East looks to be a little better than I thought going into the season. Butler and X look very legit. On the flip side, DePaul looks to be a complete disaster. I don't know what to think of Georgetown right now. Are they a top half of the conference team? Not sure.

Providence might be a big time sleeper. They have 2 NBA players w/the emergence of Bentil. Hard to see how Seton Hall breaks into top half of the league this season.

 

[Section112]

I think yes the BE is overrated until we have a much better showing in the NCAA Tourney.

 

[TrueBlue1989]

The BE has a winning record against all the FB5 conferences save the B12 so how can it be overrated? Its rpi is 2nd or 3rd.

 

[anon_4htvdezyfe7k9]

I'm with 112 until we prove otherwise...ultimate indicator is NCAA tourney performance. Maybe that's being short-sighted but college hoops has become so tourney-oriented. We just seem outmatched physically and athletically when it comes to playing the teams that are ultimately considered the top ~ 20% of the DI programs.

 

[Halldan1]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein 18m18 minutes ago

How is the Big Ten different from the old Big East? @TomCrean explains on the #collegehoopstoday podcast: http://bit.ly/1IRUfhp #iubb

 

[Piratefan2009]

The Big East is outmatched but also overrated.

They're outmatched because they only have ten teams, which limits the amount of "great" teams in any one year compared to the ACC for instance.

They're overrated because:

You've got about 6 programs that are perennial or biennial tournament teams, with administrations who have time and time again made smart investments or good choices to keep their schools always in the conversation.

You've got another 4 teams which have become mid-majors or worse, and have administrations with little vision, that consistently make poor choices. One of those teams made a great hire a few years ago that has consistently recruited and kept his team in the conversation.

I'm sure everyone can name which is which.

 

[TrueBlue1989]

How is the BE outmatched by the virtue of having 10 teams? Is the B12? overrated by whom? The BE has a terrific record against the FB5 and a top rpi. No one is claiming that it is the #1 conference but it is clearly top 3 and very far ahead of the AAC and a10. 40% of the BE is in the top 25 which is 2nd only to the B12 which is clearly the best conference. Btw, if Xavier beats Purdue it will be in the the top 5.

 

[hallball]

It depends on who is doing the rating.

 

[Piratefan2009]

How is the BE outmatched by the virtue of having 10 teams? Is the B12? overrated by whom? The BE has a terrific record against the FB5 and a top rpi. No one is claiming that it is the #1 conference but it is clearly top 3 and very far ahead of the AAC and a10. 40% of the BE is in the top 25 which is 2nd only to the B12 which is clearly the best conference. Btw, if Xavier beats Purdue it will be in the the top 5.

Having 16 teams instead of 10 means you can have more teams with winning records in conference (better chance at more bids), more media markets, more recruiting reach, etc. The B12 is a better or equal conference compared to the BE, but is also held back (bid-wise) by virtue of having ten teams.

RPI this early is meaningless, as is ranking conferences by RPI. I also don't think we are a "clear" top 3 conference. Let's break down ACC vs. Big East, and Big Ten vs. Big East.

ACC:
Duke over Georgetown
Miami over Butler
Villanova over G Tech
FSU over Depaul
----
Syracuse (2 losses to BE)
VT loss to Providence

We are "up by one game", but only because we haven't played much, and when we did it was to crush the dregs of their league. I hate the ACC and want to burn them with a hot poker, but we have basically played only a few of their good teams and lost more than we won.

Big Ten:
Michigan State over Provi
Maryland over Georgetown
Indiana over Creighton & St. Johns
X over Michigan
Penn State over Depaul
--
Nebraska (2 losses to BE)
Wisconsin (2 losses to BE)
Illinois lost to Provi
Rutgers (3 losses to BE)

Another case of "beat the dregs". When we played the top half of their league we lost way more than we won. Both of those leagues will get more bids than the BE, and have more tournament quality teams.

 

[Shuathelete]

#freejcalz

 

[NYC Pirate]

I think this is a complex question. The BigEast is a solid major conference. We have to remember this is a brand new league without
National powers UConn, Syracuse and Louisville. Those 3 schools won several National Championships.

I believe the potential for this league is excellent. I don't think we'll ever be able to surpass the ACC because of UNC and Duke. The potential to recruit the elite players is just too easy for them. Kentucky is the other program that can stay at the head of the pack because or their fanbase.

I believe this year's BigEast is better than last year's addition. So far the BigEast is right up there with the other conferences. However, I'm in the camp that looks at the NCAA Tournament as the measuring stick. The potential is there for teams like Xavier and Butler to advance into the later rounds. Villanova always seems to be missing something in the Tournament, I think J Thompson III runs a terrific program, but I don't believe he's the best in-game coach. Georgetown's offensive system never quite matches their on court defense. So those are 2 BigEast mainstays that are legit top10-20 programs that seem to disappoint in the NCAA's.

Other issues for the BigEast are the athletic budgets and size of fanbases compared to the state schools in the other power conferences. It's difficult for the SHU's, DePaul's, and SJU's to compete for those marquee players that push your teams over the top.

Right at the moment the BigEast may be a tad overrated, but this may be the season that it continues to elevate from top to bottom as a conference. It's a basketball centric league and that bodes well.

 

[radecicco]

The BE is very close to breaking thru in the NCAAs. Last year the league was within one or two plays of having 3 teams in the sweet 16: X obviously got there. Nova missed a wide open game winner at the buzzer v NC State and Butler lost in OT vs ND. Those two games go our way and would we be having this conversation? By every other measure, the BE is top three. The league has successfully done what will eventually lead to a break thru-- consistently get 4,5,6 teams in. More teams in, more chances to go deep in the tournament.