Last Chance Predictions
- Thread starter SPK145
- Start date
I agree to an extent. He used to be a Democrat and he had lots of people of color on his TV show and that work for him and never had an issue with anyone in the LGBT community prior to running. I really hope he continues those practices and stops with some of his rhetoric. For example I happen to like Mexican people because they come here and work very hard and assimilate into the American culture without trying to change it.
With that said the people that elected him want him to do some of the stuff he said he would do. Let's hope he believes in the art of the deal and compromises to get lots of deals done that will help America.
Nate Silver was the best prognosticator going last night. He actually gave Trump a chance to win.
On his 538 web site silver has been saying all along that there was a path for victory for Trump. Hey no one is perfect especially in an election such as this, but in the past 2 Presidential elections he had 99 out of 100 states correct. But he is pretty damn good at what he does.
TK
Wrong. Much closer to 30% at the start of the night, which is way, way more than anyone else had it.
Sure..28% so I stand corrected, but that's still a big miss. No one had anything close to the final EV total.
One thing that is fascinating is that Trump never led in any poll (maybe except the LA Times), until he won. Bad polling techniques or did he just peak at the right time?
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There needs to be a referendum on polling. Media outlets are using favorable polling to their preferences and it's ridiculous.
That said, even in flawed polling HRC never built a huge lead. Media types were going nuts of her leading, but was usually within margin for error. Local polling was worse though. Just like when she had a huge lead over Bernie in the MI primary yet lost.
That said, even in flawed polling HRC never built a huge lead. Media types were going nuts of her leading, but was usually within margin for error. Local polling was worse though. Just like when she had a huge lead over Bernie in the MI primary yet lost.
Polling for the most part was sort of on the money. Polling is not an exact science. The error rate is around 3%. So prior to the elections, I viewed all the toss up states as truly toss ups like Florida and Ohio which was within the margin of error. Second, I always thought Pennsylvania was the key to the election and was worried about that state. Again, the polls only had her up 4%. To me, when I see 4% in a poll that is a really close and even race which it turned out to be.
The states where polling really got it wrong was Wisconsin and Michigan. Polling is a temperature reading at a given time. It can go up or down within a few percentage points especially when you have two unlikable candidates. It was not an election that you had people loving both candidates. Thus that volatility contribute to the unpredictability of this race.
