Kiper: 2015 NFL Mock Draft 4.0
The combine is now well in the rearview mirror, and performances there have now been mostly backed up by pro days. Add to that the fact that at least some needs have been targeted (if not addressed) in free agency and we're at the point where draft boards juxtaposed against needs and priorities are coming into better focus. I have many changes from the mock draft I released back in early March, starting with a change for the No. 2 quarterback on my board.
As always, let me note a couple of things that factor into what you see below:
• I won't be projecting any trades, but I will mention where I think a trade could be in play.
• As I often note in my position rankings, scheme can dictate a player's ultimate position.
With that said, enjoy diving into the latest mock. Note that we've added video highlights and have a page here with highlights and comments on many prospects.
1 Jameis Winston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-3
WT: 231
POS: QB
Analysis: Nothing to see here. I've had Winston going No. 1 overall since my first mock draft and I believe he'll still be there in my final mock draft. It makes sense for Tampa Bay to take a hard look at all options, I just think this is where the Bucs will settle. He's the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He's big, durable, strong-armed and has both a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. I think he gives the Bucs the best chance to improve in 2015 over any other option on the board.
Video highlights Video
2 Marcus Mariota
Tennessee Titans (2-14)
COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 222
POS: QB
Analysis: Reminder: I don't project trades here. But in talking to people inside and outside the league, my sense is that Mariota is likely to be taken here -- it's just hard to say which team is making the pick. Yes, it could be Tennessee, but it could be a handful of other teams if a deal gets done. (San Diego, the Jets, Chicago, St. Louis ... many have been named as possible fits.) As I've said before, I think Mariota has done as much as he can to show he wasn't just a system guy at Oregon. I wouldn't want to start him right away in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits.
3 Leonard Williams
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 302
POS: DE
Analysis: "Dream scenario" probably overstates this -- Andrew Luck isn't sitting here at No. 3 -- but if Williams, the No. 1 player on my Big Board, is still here at No. 3, I think the Jags have a pretty easy decision. It doesn't matter if you love every starter on your defensive line -- Williams is an impact talent early in his career, and a player who will make any defense better because there's no scheme you can put him in where he won't succeed. If Williams ends up going to Tennessee at No. 2 my hunch is the Jags would take Dante Fowler here, but in this scenario it becomes an easy call.
4 Amari Cooper
Oakland Raiders (3-13)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: A few things can happen here. This is a possible trade-up spot given the Raiders could certainly add a good wide receiver further down the board, and could also target the pass rush later. It's also a fit for Kevin White or Leonard Williams if either is available. But I think it's going to be hard to pass on the sure thing that I suspect Cooper is. He's a true No. 1, a supremely gifted route runner who doesn't do it with just smarts, but with 4.4 speed and the ability to set up defenders and then run past them. He's a building-block piece.
5 Dante Fowler Jr.
Washington Redskins (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 261
POS: DE
Analysis: Fowler's combine really sealed his status as a top-10 pick, not because he was a total freak, but because the outstanding performance there backed up plenty of good tape. While I think he could actually be more productive, you did see consistent flashes of a player who, were he able to add more elements to his game as a pass-rusher in particular, has star potential. Fowler was also asked to move around a lot, which is another reason the sack totals are good instead of eye-popping. That said, Fowler doesn't have to be a sack machine to be a really good player, and I do think the pass rush will continue to get better, which is what the Redskins desperately need as they continue to build this defense into a more formidable unit. Better secondary play typically starts up front.
6 Brandon Scherff
New York Jets (4-12)
COLLEGE: Iowa
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 319
POS: OT
Analysis: If Mariota is here I think that's the direction the Jets go. And while I can certainly see this team moving up to No. 2, as I noted above, we know the price is going to be steep, and it might simply be too high a cost. I know this is a possible fit for a pass-rusher as well, but the Scherff pick also makes a lot of sense if you look at the improvements they've made on defense and the improvements they still need to make on offense. The Jets are going to have a good defense next season regardless of whom they take here. The new threats in the passing game are nice, but given the QB options on the roster, this team needs to be able to run the ball. Scherff is a possible starter immediately at right tackle, and is a clear upgrade at either guard spot. It might not be exciting for the fans, but for immediate impact this could be the best pick to make.
7 Kevin White
Chicago Bears (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 215
POS: WR
Analysis: White has the deep speed and size the Bears need in the passing game as they fill the void left by the departure of Brandon Marshall, and White feels like a pretty good get at this point. I do think he's in play at both No. 3 and No. 4. I can see the Bears looking at a pass-rusher here, but it might be a bit too rich for Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory, and Shane Ray will go through an adjustment period here. White gives the Bears a much-needed threat in the passing game regardless of who plays QB, and the value is good here.
8 Vic Beasley
Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 246
POS: OLB
Analysis: Atlanta needs productivity from a pass-rusher, and I think new defensive coordinator Richard Smith will know how to get Beasley going in the same way Denver was able to get Von Miller going. Now, Beasley isn't Miller -- but I do think he's a pure pass-rusher who can get to opposing QBs regardless of what system you're employing. Beasley had 44.5 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, and while I don't think he's an every-down player, he's going to come in ready to be used. Shane Ray is also an option here, and though I wouldn't rule out an O-line pick either, with Scherff off the board the value isn't great in this slot.
9 Shane Ray
New York Giants (6-10)
COLLEGE: Missouri
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Analysis: The pass-rush is a sneaky need for the Giants. Think about it: If Jason Pierre-Paul is healthy, the depth chart looks fair. But if he has any health issues, and we can't rule that out, you look at this depth chart and have to wonder where the Giants will be able to come up with any pressure. So whether it's Ray, Beasley or Fowler if he were somehow still around at this point, the pass rush is an area they could target. I do think Scherff is a fit, and I've had him here previously, but he's off the board. And while I wouldn't expect the Giants to take a wide receiver, I'd at least be tempted by the two available here.
10 Breshad Perriman
St. Louis Rams (6-10)
COLLEGE: UCF
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 212
POS: WR
Analysis: No player has risen more on my board over the past month than Perriman, a player who I always thought looked explosive on tape, then lived up to that by running sub-4.3 two separate times at his pro day. We know the Rams have a need for another potent weapon in the passing game, and Perriman could fit the bill. One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman has good length but will also prove dangerous after the catch. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class.
11 Trae Waynes
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 186
POS: CB
Analysis: I've said before I also think the Vikings could look at a receiver here, but with the top three off the board in this scenario, Waynes becomes a pretty decent value as the top cornerback in the draft. The Vikings have a need there and, at a position where I feel like the transition from college to pro is as pronounced as it is at any place on the field, Waynes has the range of skills that add up to a guy who can help out early in his career. The Vikings are in decent shape up front, but they lack both depth and size at cornerback, which is no fun in this division. Again, you're facing Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler on the schedule six times a year, so depth at cornerback is essential, not just nice to have.
12 DeVante Parker
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 209
POS: WR
Analysis: The Browns have added Dwayne Bowe, but he'll be 31 in September and is more name value than anything close to a No. 1 receiver at this point in his career. I expect the Browns to pick more than one pass-catcher, and getting Parker here is a good place to start. I do think he has a chance to be as good as any of the three guys already off the board if he can stay healthy. Parker will beat defenders to the ball on high-point catches with his size, leaping ability and catch radius, and he's underrated as a threat to add yards after the catch on short throws. He'll help a QB look better. The Browns could also look at a pass-rusher here, or Waynes if he's still on the board, but Parker makes sense.
13 Randy Gregory
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Nebraska
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 235
POS: OLB
Analysis: There's no question that Gregory has seen his stock slide in recent weeks, as the question of how dependable he can be off the field gets tacked onto the question of whether his size will be an issue. But with two first-round picks, a bet on getting the best out of Gregory isn't a bad one to make right here for the Saints, because he's got so much talent. He offers length, and explosiveness that plays up both on tape and when he's sprinting in Under Armour. There are some concerns about his lean frame, but I think he's a lot better against the run than his frame might indicate, and if he can stay on the field I think he has a chance to be a star.
14 Danny Shelton
Miami Dolphins (8-8)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 339
POS: DT
Analysis: The Dolphins added Ndamukong Suh, but the depth chart for the interior of their defensive line is basically "Suh and that's about it." Shelton is a different kind of player than Suh, with a far more limited ability to rush the passer, but if they're on the field at the same time it could free Suh up to be the kind of disruptor the Dolphins are paying for, which is what took place in Detroit, where the Lions had a good rotation along the interior. Shelton isn't just insurance for Suh, he's a nice complement. He's not as disruptive as sack and TFL totals indicate, but he can eat up double-teams at the point of attack and make others around him better. He has great awareness and will occasionally simply discard blocks and make the tackle himself.
15 Arik Armstead
San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-7
WT: 292
POS: DE
Analysis: Justin Smith isn't coming back, and Darnell Dockett is 33 and coming off a season in which he landed on IR with an ACL injury. Ray McDonald is also gone. Even if you like the current starters in San Fran, the depth chart isn't what it has been. While Armstead needs a lot of seasoning, he would be a good balance of hitting an immediate need and offering a lot of potential for the future. I'm not as high on him as Mr. McShay, who sees him as a top-10 talent, but this is a sensible landing spot. He's physically ready to help and should be able to provide a spark as a rotation player on the line. The thing with Armstead is there's no telling exactly what he'll become, so you really need to have a plan for him.
16 Bud Dupree
Houston Texans (9-7)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 269
POS: OLB
Analysis: J.J. Watt is going to look like the best pass-rusher on any depth chart, but the drop-off between him and everyone else on the Texans' roster is bigger than they'd like to see at this point, and adding a high-upside athlete and edge rusher with the size and athleticism to move around depending on how you want to mix your looks is a good get here. Dupree has produced, and against top competition. And while he's not a mechanic in terms of pass-rushing tools, he has the traits you look for and the potential to get better.
17 Malcom Brown
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
COLLEGE: Texas
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 319
POS: DT
Analysis: No change here. I said before I can see a bunch of different players landing here -- including a running back -- but I think the fit of Brown as a needed two-gapping run-stopper to help the defensive line would be useful in the short term. This wasn't a good run defense last year, and it starts in the middle. Brown isn't a complete product yet, but but he's one of the better run-defending solutions among defensive linemen in this draft and the Chargers are going to want more inside than a guy like Sean Lissemore.
18 Jaelen Strong
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
COLLEGE: Arizona State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 217
POS: WR
Analysis: Another one that remains the same from version 3.0. The departure of Dwayne Bowe isn't really much of one in terms of production, but the Chiefs still need a talent upgrade at wide receiver and a player who can win battles on downfield throws. At slightly under 6-foot-3, Strong also has a 42-inch vertical, a number that shows up on tape as he wins on balls in the air. Strong also has underrated speed and will run by cornerbacks who don't respect it. I don't know if a true down-the-field threat is going to make Alex Smith a down-the-field thrower, but Strong at least creates more of an option in the passing game.
19 Todd Gurley
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
COLLEGE: Georgia
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 222
POS: RB
Analysis: It's not the pick I'm making as GM of the Browns, but this is a projection, not "Mel's picks." The Browns already have added talent at wide receiver, and if healthy the offensive line could be one of the NFL's best. While they got pretty good production out of the rookie tandem at running back in 2014, Gurley certainly could qualify as the "best player available" at this spot on the board. The Browns can take him knowing he doesn't have to be an impact player in Week 1, and create an opportunity for him to be a stud for them as he reaches his full potential when at 100 percent.
20 Landon Collins
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 228
POS: S
Analysis: Collins is a safety who does his best work when he's near the line of scrimmage. He has great instincts and tackling ability as an extra defender against the run, and he's the kind of player who can fit seamlessly into this scheme and should be on the field right away. I do think the Eagles will be looking to add another pass-catching threat, but the draft offers plenty of depth in that area, just as it did last year when they added an instant-impact receiver in Round 2.
21 Devin Funchess
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
COLLEGE: Michigan
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 232
POS: WR
Analysis: I don't have Funchess classified as a tight end, because whoever drafts him isn't going to line him up with the expectation that he'll be helping as a blocker. What he will bring is a matchup threat in the short passing game, which is where Andy Dalton needs to be able to thrive. Jermaine Gresham never turned into the player the Bengals hoped he would become, but you can have Funchess and Tyler Eifert on the field at the same time and really make it difficult for linebackers and safeties to match up with both, and Funchess has the size to overwhelm cornerbacks.
22 Kevin Johnson
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Wake Forest
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 188
POS: CB
Analysis: The Steelers lack high-end talent at cornerback, and while Johnson, like all cornerbacks, doesn't project as a star right away, he can play right away and helps this team where it needs help the most. A standout on a lousy team throughout his college career, Johnson has good length for the position and moves and mirrors as well as any cornerback in the draft. He can make man-to-man coverage look so easy at times, and he's an active run defender. It's hard to play while ahead in the NFL if you can't cover, and the Steelers can improve their defense with this selection.
23 La'El Collins
Detroit Lions (11-5)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 308
POS: T
Analysis: Since the departure of Ndamukong Suh, it has seemed like a foregone conclusion that defensive tackle would be a priority position for the Lions to address in the draft. But given the additions of Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker, the Lions have made moves that will ensure the defensive line is still a strength of the team in 2015. What still isn't a strength is the offensive line, where the team was simply average as both a pass- and run-blocking unit in 2014. The Lions simply can't take full advantage of the weapons they have on offense if they don't improve up front, and Collins can be an immediate help. I think he can play tackle, but he could also become an immediate upgrade at left guard, as he's one of the most dominant run-blockers in the draft over the past few seasons.
24 Melvin Gordon
Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 215
POS: RB
Analysis: I'm keeping this pick the same. As I noted before, a healthy Andre Ellington means Arizona will have big-play potential in the running and screen game, but he's a health risk and simply isn't on Gordon's level. Gordon has the explosiveness that you need from an RB taken this high -- he's a true game-breaker -- but he's also proved durable. There's always a value question for a running back taken this high, but we can all agree Arizona is built to contend for a deep playoff run if the team is healthy at QB, and Gordon simply makes an offense better now. A need at linebacker is something the Cardinals can target later in the draft.
Video highlights Video
25 D.J. Humphries
Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 307
POS: OT
Analysis: The Panthers have made a couple of moves to improve what was a terrible offensive line in 2014, but in terms of overall talent they really aren't significantly improved. They have other needs, but nothing that surpasses the goal of making Cam Newton more comfortable. Humphries has handled some of the top pass-rushers in the SEC, and has a chance to provide immediate help where the Panthers need it most. He lacks polish, but he plays with relentlessness, and he also profiles as a player with the upside to stick at left tackle in the NFL, which isn't something you can say about even some of the top tackles in this draft.
26 Marcus Peters
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 197
POS: CB
Analysis: No change here from the last mock. The Ravens could use another pass-catcher, but the tape makes Peters one of the best bets from this draft class to be a useful cornerback right away. Last year, injuries played a big role in Baltimore's pass defense becoming a major liability for the first time in years. You just can't overstate the value of depth at this position. I've noted before Peters has some question marks -- he was dismissed from the team at Washington this past season -- but if it's purely a question of talent, he's a potential steal at this point in the first round. He's more than just a good player; he's the kind of talent that can turn bad throws into points for the defense.
27 Byron Jones
Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
COLLEGE: Connecticut
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 199
POS: CB
Analysis: The Cowboys are clearly in win-now mode, and their ability to run the ball effectively and create points on offense really isn't a question mark for me. While the defensive line is an area they can improve, I think the secondary is a bigger concern, and I love the versatility that Jones can offer them as a corner who can be moved around and also play safety if that's where they need him. This is one of the best athletes in the draft, but with Jones, it's not just about the workouts, because everything you see at the NFL combine is also evident on tape. He has great football instincts and star upside. There are going to be pass-rushers available in Round 2, and running back help is there well into the later rounds, especially with the offensive line the Cowboys have in place.
28 Cameron Erving
Denver Broncos (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Sr
HT: 6-5
WT: 313
POS: C
Analysis: On the First Draft podcast posted yesterday, we discussed how Erving is a remarkable story as a player who actually increased his draft stock when he moved from left tackle to center, where he was absolutely dominant down the stretch for the Seminoles last season. The Broncos have the quarterback, and they have the weapons, but to remain Super Bowl contenders they need to solidify the interior of the offensive line, and it's hard to do any better than Erving at this point. He's a versatile offensive lineman and the kind of player who will help Denver keep the title window wide open.
29 Andrus Peat
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Stanford
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 313
POS: OT
Analysis: The Colts have been active in free agency, but I still consider the offensive line a weakness they need to address in the draft. Andrew Luck is going to produce points for them, but they won't maximize what he's capable of if they don't improve their pass protection and create more of a push in the run game. Peat is by no means a complete prospect, but what he does offer is big-time upside as a player who can become a very good NFL left tackle and the ability to start elsewhere on the O-line right away. There's a chance he's off the board in the top-10 range, so he's a great value at this stage.
30 Jalen Collins
Green Bay Packers (12-4)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 203
POS: CB
Analysis: I can see the Packers targeting a pass-rusher here, but I also think they'll be able to find help there in Round 2. Like most teams, they're also in need of another cornerback, and given the QBs and pass-catchers they face six times a year in the NFC North, it's not a position where you can be short on depth without being exposed. Collins is a high-upside play as a cornerback as he offers good size, length and athletic ability. He can play physical but also turn and run with the fastest wide receivers in the league. He's not a complete package yet, but he can press, play off and shows awareness in zone. The pick makes sense here.
31 Nelson Agholor
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 198
POS: WR
Analysis: The Saints addressed the pass rush earlier in Round 1, and now they can dip into the depth at wide receiver in this class and get an experienced, underrated pass-catcher who can come in and play right away. The team is without Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, Marques Colston is now 31, and Brandin Cooks will be coming back from an injury. Agholor is a very good route runner, has good hands, and is quietly an explosive athlete who can set up defenders and create space underneath or beat defenses over the top. This is a deep wide receiver class, but the Saints should get someone with early-impact potential, and Agholor fits the bill.
32 Eddie Goldman
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 336
POS: DT
Analysis: The defensive line isn't the same without Vince Wilfork. The secondary isn't the same without Darrelle Revis. But while Revis is still in his prime and can't possibly be replaced in the short term via the draft, a player like Goldman has the opportunity to more closely replicate the kind of run-stuffing ability Wilfork gave Bill Belichick for so many years. He's not going to be winning with quickness and chasing quarterbacks around, but Goldman can eat up blocks and hold the point and help the Patriots keep opposing offenses from assuming they can line up and overpower the Patriots in the run game. He's also a really good value at this point.
The combine is now well in the rearview mirror, and performances there have now been mostly backed up by pro days. Add to that the fact that at least some needs have been targeted (if not addressed) in free agency and we're at the point where draft boards juxtaposed against needs and priorities are coming into better focus. I have many changes from the mock draft I released back in early March, starting with a change for the No. 2 quarterback on my board.
As always, let me note a couple of things that factor into what you see below:
• I won't be projecting any trades, but I will mention where I think a trade could be in play.
• As I often note in my position rankings, scheme can dictate a player's ultimate position.
With that said, enjoy diving into the latest mock. Note that we've added video highlights and have a page here with highlights and comments on many prospects.
1 Jameis Winston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-3
WT: 231
POS: QB
Analysis: Nothing to see here. I've had Winston going No. 1 overall since my first mock draft and I believe he'll still be there in my final mock draft. It makes sense for Tampa Bay to take a hard look at all options, I just think this is where the Bucs will settle. He's the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He's big, durable, strong-armed and has both a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. I think he gives the Bucs the best chance to improve in 2015 over any other option on the board.
Video highlights Video
2 Marcus Mariota
Tennessee Titans (2-14)
COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 222
POS: QB
Analysis: Reminder: I don't project trades here. But in talking to people inside and outside the league, my sense is that Mariota is likely to be taken here -- it's just hard to say which team is making the pick. Yes, it could be Tennessee, but it could be a handful of other teams if a deal gets done. (San Diego, the Jets, Chicago, St. Louis ... many have been named as possible fits.) As I've said before, I think Mariota has done as much as he can to show he wasn't just a system guy at Oregon. I wouldn't want to start him right away in 2015, but you can't question Mariota's physical profile or his potential to improve and grow as an NFL quarterback given his attitude and work habits.
3 Leonard Williams
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 302
POS: DE
Analysis: "Dream scenario" probably overstates this -- Andrew Luck isn't sitting here at No. 3 -- but if Williams, the No. 1 player on my Big Board, is still here at No. 3, I think the Jags have a pretty easy decision. It doesn't matter if you love every starter on your defensive line -- Williams is an impact talent early in his career, and a player who will make any defense better because there's no scheme you can put him in where he won't succeed. If Williams ends up going to Tennessee at No. 2 my hunch is the Jags would take Dante Fowler here, but in this scenario it becomes an easy call.
4 Amari Cooper
Oakland Raiders (3-13)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: A few things can happen here. This is a possible trade-up spot given the Raiders could certainly add a good wide receiver further down the board, and could also target the pass rush later. It's also a fit for Kevin White or Leonard Williams if either is available. But I think it's going to be hard to pass on the sure thing that I suspect Cooper is. He's a true No. 1, a supremely gifted route runner who doesn't do it with just smarts, but with 4.4 speed and the ability to set up defenders and then run past them. He's a building-block piece.
5 Dante Fowler Jr.
Washington Redskins (4-12)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 261
POS: DE
Analysis: Fowler's combine really sealed his status as a top-10 pick, not because he was a total freak, but because the outstanding performance there backed up plenty of good tape. While I think he could actually be more productive, you did see consistent flashes of a player who, were he able to add more elements to his game as a pass-rusher in particular, has star potential. Fowler was also asked to move around a lot, which is another reason the sack totals are good instead of eye-popping. That said, Fowler doesn't have to be a sack machine to be a really good player, and I do think the pass rush will continue to get better, which is what the Redskins desperately need as they continue to build this defense into a more formidable unit. Better secondary play typically starts up front.
6 Brandon Scherff
New York Jets (4-12)
COLLEGE: Iowa
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 319
POS: OT
Analysis: If Mariota is here I think that's the direction the Jets go. And while I can certainly see this team moving up to No. 2, as I noted above, we know the price is going to be steep, and it might simply be too high a cost. I know this is a possible fit for a pass-rusher as well, but the Scherff pick also makes a lot of sense if you look at the improvements they've made on defense and the improvements they still need to make on offense. The Jets are going to have a good defense next season regardless of whom they take here. The new threats in the passing game are nice, but given the QB options on the roster, this team needs to be able to run the ball. Scherff is a possible starter immediately at right tackle, and is a clear upgrade at either guard spot. It might not be exciting for the fans, but for immediate impact this could be the best pick to make.
7 Kevin White
Chicago Bears (5-11)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 215
POS: WR
Analysis: White has the deep speed and size the Bears need in the passing game as they fill the void left by the departure of Brandon Marshall, and White feels like a pretty good get at this point. I do think he's in play at both No. 3 and No. 4. I can see the Bears looking at a pass-rusher here, but it might be a bit too rich for Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory, and Shane Ray will go through an adjustment period here. White gives the Bears a much-needed threat in the passing game regardless of who plays QB, and the value is good here.
8 Vic Beasley
Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 246
POS: OLB
Analysis: Atlanta needs productivity from a pass-rusher, and I think new defensive coordinator Richard Smith will know how to get Beasley going in the same way Denver was able to get Von Miller going. Now, Beasley isn't Miller -- but I do think he's a pure pass-rusher who can get to opposing QBs regardless of what system you're employing. Beasley had 44.5 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, and while I don't think he's an every-down player, he's going to come in ready to be used. Shane Ray is also an option here, and though I wouldn't rule out an O-line pick either, with Scherff off the board the value isn't great in this slot.
9 Shane Ray
New York Giants (6-10)
COLLEGE: Missouri
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB
Analysis: The pass-rush is a sneaky need for the Giants. Think about it: If Jason Pierre-Paul is healthy, the depth chart looks fair. But if he has any health issues, and we can't rule that out, you look at this depth chart and have to wonder where the Giants will be able to come up with any pressure. So whether it's Ray, Beasley or Fowler if he were somehow still around at this point, the pass rush is an area they could target. I do think Scherff is a fit, and I've had him here previously, but he's off the board. And while I wouldn't expect the Giants to take a wide receiver, I'd at least be tempted by the two available here.
10 Breshad Perriman
St. Louis Rams (6-10)
COLLEGE: UCF
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 212
POS: WR
Analysis: No player has risen more on my board over the past month than Perriman, a player who I always thought looked explosive on tape, then lived up to that by running sub-4.3 two separate times at his pro day. We know the Rams have a need for another potent weapon in the passing game, and Perriman could fit the bill. One of the bigger sleepers in the 2015 draft class at this point, Perriman has good length but will also prove dangerous after the catch. At one time I had him as a likely second-round pick, but now I see him as a close call in terms of overall ability next to the top few wide receivers in this class.
11 Trae Waynes
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 186
POS: CB
Analysis: I've said before I also think the Vikings could look at a receiver here, but with the top three off the board in this scenario, Waynes becomes a pretty decent value as the top cornerback in the draft. The Vikings have a need there and, at a position where I feel like the transition from college to pro is as pronounced as it is at any place on the field, Waynes has the range of skills that add up to a guy who can help out early in his career. The Vikings are in decent shape up front, but they lack both depth and size at cornerback, which is no fun in this division. Again, you're facing Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler on the schedule six times a year, so depth at cornerback is essential, not just nice to have.
12 DeVante Parker
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 209
POS: WR
Analysis: The Browns have added Dwayne Bowe, but he'll be 31 in September and is more name value than anything close to a No. 1 receiver at this point in his career. I expect the Browns to pick more than one pass-catcher, and getting Parker here is a good place to start. I do think he has a chance to be as good as any of the three guys already off the board if he can stay healthy. Parker will beat defenders to the ball on high-point catches with his size, leaping ability and catch radius, and he's underrated as a threat to add yards after the catch on short throws. He'll help a QB look better. The Browns could also look at a pass-rusher here, or Waynes if he's still on the board, but Parker makes sense.
13 Randy Gregory
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: Nebraska
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 235
POS: OLB
Analysis: There's no question that Gregory has seen his stock slide in recent weeks, as the question of how dependable he can be off the field gets tacked onto the question of whether his size will be an issue. But with two first-round picks, a bet on getting the best out of Gregory isn't a bad one to make right here for the Saints, because he's got so much talent. He offers length, and explosiveness that plays up both on tape and when he's sprinting in Under Armour. There are some concerns about his lean frame, but I think he's a lot better against the run than his frame might indicate, and if he can stay on the field I think he has a chance to be a star.
14 Danny Shelton
Miami Dolphins (8-8)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 339
POS: DT
Analysis: The Dolphins added Ndamukong Suh, but the depth chart for the interior of their defensive line is basically "Suh and that's about it." Shelton is a different kind of player than Suh, with a far more limited ability to rush the passer, but if they're on the field at the same time it could free Suh up to be the kind of disruptor the Dolphins are paying for, which is what took place in Detroit, where the Lions had a good rotation along the interior. Shelton isn't just insurance for Suh, he's a nice complement. He's not as disruptive as sack and TFL totals indicate, but he can eat up double-teams at the point of attack and make others around him better. He has great awareness and will occasionally simply discard blocks and make the tackle himself.
15 Arik Armstead
San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-7
WT: 292
POS: DE
Analysis: Justin Smith isn't coming back, and Darnell Dockett is 33 and coming off a season in which he landed on IR with an ACL injury. Ray McDonald is also gone. Even if you like the current starters in San Fran, the depth chart isn't what it has been. While Armstead needs a lot of seasoning, he would be a good balance of hitting an immediate need and offering a lot of potential for the future. I'm not as high on him as Mr. McShay, who sees him as a top-10 talent, but this is a sensible landing spot. He's physically ready to help and should be able to provide a spark as a rotation player on the line. The thing with Armstead is there's no telling exactly what he'll become, so you really need to have a plan for him.
16 Bud Dupree
Houston Texans (9-7)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 269
POS: OLB
Analysis: J.J. Watt is going to look like the best pass-rusher on any depth chart, but the drop-off between him and everyone else on the Texans' roster is bigger than they'd like to see at this point, and adding a high-upside athlete and edge rusher with the size and athleticism to move around depending on how you want to mix your looks is a good get here. Dupree has produced, and against top competition. And while he's not a mechanic in terms of pass-rushing tools, he has the traits you look for and the potential to get better.
17 Malcom Brown
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
COLLEGE: Texas
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 319
POS: DT
Analysis: No change here. I said before I can see a bunch of different players landing here -- including a running back -- but I think the fit of Brown as a needed two-gapping run-stopper to help the defensive line would be useful in the short term. This wasn't a good run defense last year, and it starts in the middle. Brown isn't a complete product yet, but but he's one of the better run-defending solutions among defensive linemen in this draft and the Chargers are going to want more inside than a guy like Sean Lissemore.
18 Jaelen Strong
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
COLLEGE: Arizona State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 217
POS: WR
Analysis: Another one that remains the same from version 3.0. The departure of Dwayne Bowe isn't really much of one in terms of production, but the Chiefs still need a talent upgrade at wide receiver and a player who can win battles on downfield throws. At slightly under 6-foot-3, Strong also has a 42-inch vertical, a number that shows up on tape as he wins on balls in the air. Strong also has underrated speed and will run by cornerbacks who don't respect it. I don't know if a true down-the-field threat is going to make Alex Smith a down-the-field thrower, but Strong at least creates more of an option in the passing game.
19 Todd Gurley
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
COLLEGE: Georgia
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 222
POS: RB
Analysis: It's not the pick I'm making as GM of the Browns, but this is a projection, not "Mel's picks." The Browns already have added talent at wide receiver, and if healthy the offensive line could be one of the NFL's best. While they got pretty good production out of the rookie tandem at running back in 2014, Gurley certainly could qualify as the "best player available" at this spot on the board. The Browns can take him knowing he doesn't have to be an impact player in Week 1, and create an opportunity for him to be a stud for them as he reaches his full potential when at 100 percent.
20 Landon Collins
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 228
POS: S
Analysis: Collins is a safety who does his best work when he's near the line of scrimmage. He has great instincts and tackling ability as an extra defender against the run, and he's the kind of player who can fit seamlessly into this scheme and should be on the field right away. I do think the Eagles will be looking to add another pass-catching threat, but the draft offers plenty of depth in that area, just as it did last year when they added an instant-impact receiver in Round 2.
21 Devin Funchess
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
COLLEGE: Michigan
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 232
POS: WR
Analysis: I don't have Funchess classified as a tight end, because whoever drafts him isn't going to line him up with the expectation that he'll be helping as a blocker. What he will bring is a matchup threat in the short passing game, which is where Andy Dalton needs to be able to thrive. Jermaine Gresham never turned into the player the Bengals hoped he would become, but you can have Funchess and Tyler Eifert on the field at the same time and really make it difficult for linebackers and safeties to match up with both, and Funchess has the size to overwhelm cornerbacks.
22 Kevin Johnson
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
COLLEGE: Wake Forest
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 188
POS: CB
Analysis: The Steelers lack high-end talent at cornerback, and while Johnson, like all cornerbacks, doesn't project as a star right away, he can play right away and helps this team where it needs help the most. A standout on a lousy team throughout his college career, Johnson has good length for the position and moves and mirrors as well as any cornerback in the draft. He can make man-to-man coverage look so easy at times, and he's an active run defender. It's hard to play while ahead in the NFL if you can't cover, and the Steelers can improve their defense with this selection.
23 La'El Collins
Detroit Lions (11-5)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 308
POS: T
Analysis: Since the departure of Ndamukong Suh, it has seemed like a foregone conclusion that defensive tackle would be a priority position for the Lions to address in the draft. But given the additions of Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker, the Lions have made moves that will ensure the defensive line is still a strength of the team in 2015. What still isn't a strength is the offensive line, where the team was simply average as both a pass- and run-blocking unit in 2014. The Lions simply can't take full advantage of the weapons they have on offense if they don't improve up front, and Collins can be an immediate help. I think he can play tackle, but he could also become an immediate upgrade at left guard, as he's one of the most dominant run-blockers in the draft over the past few seasons.
24 Melvin Gordon
Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 215
POS: RB
Analysis: I'm keeping this pick the same. As I noted before, a healthy Andre Ellington means Arizona will have big-play potential in the running and screen game, but he's a health risk and simply isn't on Gordon's level. Gordon has the explosiveness that you need from an RB taken this high -- he's a true game-breaker -- but he's also proved durable. There's always a value question for a running back taken this high, but we can all agree Arizona is built to contend for a deep playoff run if the team is healthy at QB, and Gordon simply makes an offense better now. A need at linebacker is something the Cardinals can target later in the draft.
Video highlights Video
25 D.J. Humphries
Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 307
POS: OT
Analysis: The Panthers have made a couple of moves to improve what was a terrible offensive line in 2014, but in terms of overall talent they really aren't significantly improved. They have other needs, but nothing that surpasses the goal of making Cam Newton more comfortable. Humphries has handled some of the top pass-rushers in the SEC, and has a chance to provide immediate help where the Panthers need it most. He lacks polish, but he plays with relentlessness, and he also profiles as a player with the upside to stick at left tackle in the NFL, which isn't something you can say about even some of the top tackles in this draft.
26 Marcus Peters
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 197
POS: CB
Analysis: No change here from the last mock. The Ravens could use another pass-catcher, but the tape makes Peters one of the best bets from this draft class to be a useful cornerback right away. Last year, injuries played a big role in Baltimore's pass defense becoming a major liability for the first time in years. You just can't overstate the value of depth at this position. I've noted before Peters has some question marks -- he was dismissed from the team at Washington this past season -- but if it's purely a question of talent, he's a potential steal at this point in the first round. He's more than just a good player; he's the kind of talent that can turn bad throws into points for the defense.
27 Byron Jones
Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
COLLEGE: Connecticut
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 199
POS: CB
Analysis: The Cowboys are clearly in win-now mode, and their ability to run the ball effectively and create points on offense really isn't a question mark for me. While the defensive line is an area they can improve, I think the secondary is a bigger concern, and I love the versatility that Jones can offer them as a corner who can be moved around and also play safety if that's where they need him. This is one of the best athletes in the draft, but with Jones, it's not just about the workouts, because everything you see at the NFL combine is also evident on tape. He has great football instincts and star upside. There are going to be pass-rushers available in Round 2, and running back help is there well into the later rounds, especially with the offensive line the Cowboys have in place.
28 Cameron Erving
Denver Broncos (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Sr
HT: 6-5
WT: 313
POS: C
Analysis: On the First Draft podcast posted yesterday, we discussed how Erving is a remarkable story as a player who actually increased his draft stock when he moved from left tackle to center, where he was absolutely dominant down the stretch for the Seminoles last season. The Broncos have the quarterback, and they have the weapons, but to remain Super Bowl contenders they need to solidify the interior of the offensive line, and it's hard to do any better than Erving at this point. He's a versatile offensive lineman and the kind of player who will help Denver keep the title window wide open.
29 Andrus Peat
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Stanford
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 313
POS: OT
Analysis: The Colts have been active in free agency, but I still consider the offensive line a weakness they need to address in the draft. Andrew Luck is going to produce points for them, but they won't maximize what he's capable of if they don't improve their pass protection and create more of a push in the run game. Peat is by no means a complete prospect, but what he does offer is big-time upside as a player who can become a very good NFL left tackle and the ability to start elsewhere on the O-line right away. There's a chance he's off the board in the top-10 range, so he's a great value at this stage.
30 Jalen Collins
Green Bay Packers (12-4)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 203
POS: CB
Analysis: I can see the Packers targeting a pass-rusher here, but I also think they'll be able to find help there in Round 2. Like most teams, they're also in need of another cornerback, and given the QBs and pass-catchers they face six times a year in the NFC North, it's not a position where you can be short on depth without being exposed. Collins is a high-upside play as a cornerback as he offers good size, length and athletic ability. He can play physical but also turn and run with the fastest wide receivers in the league. He's not a complete package yet, but he can press, play off and shows awareness in zone. The pick makes sense here.
31 Nelson Agholor
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 198
POS: WR
Analysis: The Saints addressed the pass rush earlier in Round 1, and now they can dip into the depth at wide receiver in this class and get an experienced, underrated pass-catcher who can come in and play right away. The team is without Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, Marques Colston is now 31, and Brandin Cooks will be coming back from an injury. Agholor is a very good route runner, has good hands, and is quietly an explosive athlete who can set up defenders and create space underneath or beat defenses over the top. This is a deep wide receiver class, but the Saints should get someone with early-impact potential, and Agholor fits the bill.
32 Eddie Goldman
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 336
POS: DT
Analysis: The defensive line isn't the same without Vince Wilfork. The secondary isn't the same without Darrelle Revis. But while Revis is still in his prime and can't possibly be replaced in the short term via the draft, a player like Goldman has the opportunity to more closely replicate the kind of run-stuffing ability Wilfork gave Bill Belichick for so many years. He's not going to be winning with quickness and chasing quarterbacks around, but Goldman can eat up blocks and hold the point and help the Patriots keep opposing offenses from assuming they can line up and overpower the Patriots in the run game. He's also a really good value at this point.
