Murphy
- Thread starter donnie_baseball
- Start date
Per the governor's own data, a grand total of ONE (1!) person was admitted to the hospital on June 2 for coronavirus in the hardest hit northern part of the state (includes Hudson, Bergen, Essex, Union, Passaic, Morris, Warren and Sussex counties). Only 108 across the rest of the state.
It's time to end this shutdown scam. Everything should be 100% open.
It's time to end this shutdown scam. Everything should be 100% open.
....I think we need another two weeks....and maybe another two more weeks....
Not sure who you are directing that towards but yes, things like this take time to understand. Kind of like when people post things like "And the “spread” right now is not widespread at all." back when there were less than 3,000 reported cases in the US... Even though now looking back we can see it was significantly more widespread than we thought at the time. Current modeling says there were closer to a million cases in the US at that time.
I've said in this thread though, I think Murphy is handling the reopening poorly and I believe the data supports reopening.
Decisions being made from state to state have been very arbitrary. You can tell this is in fact our first rodeo. PA had a bunch of things open before NJ but had all Real Estate transactions/dealings shut down until I believe earlier this week. How is housing not essential? I get that different areas of the country may have different issues, but the list of conflicts between essential vs. nonessential and when things are opening up are mind blowing. NJ is finally opening up. Good news is I see cities and towns creating their own rules for restaurants to use parking lots and sidewalks for outdoor tables. I hope many towns and cities take the initiative to help more people and businesses get back to work.
All of the decisions to this point were to ensure our hospital capacity was not overwhelmed, which fortunately, we never came close to doing. From a hospital standpoint, they do not have those concerns right now nor going forward (or they would have never ramped up elective surgeries as they have). We also have more data to identify who is at risk and protect/educate. If we were that gravely concerned about the numbers the governors should have put a complete curfew in place the minute the protests and riots started (if they expected hospitalizations to spike). They seem to be okay with that....so it's either not that bad or a horrific decision by our politicians.
Yes, we have cases now and we might have more cases when things open up (or as a result of the protests/riots). But they will be treated like any other disease going forward unless there is a concern about capacity.
Right. All of that took a decent amount of time to understand... the "wait another two weeks" etc, was entirely valid.
I just don't see why you feel the need to add the snark regarding needing time to understand what is happening especially considering that you were fairly wrong on this.
Just having some fun...I was no more wrong than Fauci has been. Our thoughts change as we get more information, right?
Here is another very good article discussing how badly NJ and NY managed our nursing homes during the pandemic. There was clear guidance days before NJ put in their deadly policy. NJ chose not to listen and played follow the leader to NY to the demise of many.
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...id-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-mulshine.html
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/05/...id-19-patients-to-nursing-homes-mulshine.html
Kinda like someone who posted his claim that millions would have died if we did not distance, shutdown, etc.
Looking at Sweden I'd say you were off by 1.5 orders of magnitude.
My view. Our leaders did their best to keep us safe. So easy to second guess. We learned as we went- and adjusted cautiously. Now that we are opening up, steady as she goes- better to be a little patient and not have to revert back to extreme measures.
We will be in good shape by January.
Pretty fast work to bounce back from a sneak attack.
We will be in good shape by January.
Pretty fast work to bounce back from a sneak attack.
If you read the op-ed posted above, you'd see that the MMWR and a governing body of long-term and acute care centers WARNED us all that nursing homes were in grave danger. Cuomo responded by instituting policy to ENSURE that COVID -positive or suspected cases could not be denied readmission to the nursing homes. Murphy responded by adopting the same policy, VERBATIM.
Happy to explain my thinking and support my thoughts with data as I always have been
An estimate of the number of people who were infected as of today is about 14.3 million.
https://covid19-projections.com/
With about 114k deaths. That is a mortality rate of about .8%.
Left on it's own to run its course, I believe a conservative estimate was that 40% of the US population would eventually be infected. That seemed to be on the lower end of ranges some I saw expected closer to 70%, so lets just keep it at 40% to be conservative.
328,200,000 * .40 = 131,280,000 would ultimately be infected. * .8% = 1,050,240 would die.
^ That is if left alone with nothing done and a conservative estimate as it really doesn't factor in the speed of transmission and what would have happened in densely populated areas if they ran out of room at our hospitals.
When it hit the US, people here did not think it was here, didn't think it would come here, and thought that if it did, that we would be able to detect and snuff it out. Sweden had the opportunity to see what was happening in other countries and were able to take it more seriously... but per capita they have more deaths from the virus than the US does so I wouldn't really point to them as a success story when their neighbors
About 100k people died from 4/1 - 5/31.
The reason why we stopped seeing the growth in the number of deaths was because we shut down and started social distancing weeks before that.
2 months and 100k deaths... while we were shut down.
Had we not had social distancing and shut down, that number would have been far worse.
So if we go with your theory, we are likely to see a major spike in fatalities resulting from the protests, rioting and looting.
Not sure how you would define major, but yes. Cases and fatalities will be greater than they would have otherwise been because of the protests and riots.
For the golfers on the board, all NJ state-mandated restrictions have been lifted. Look at Murphy actually listening to science for a change! Any regulations are now up to the individual course operators/owners, which is the way it should always have been.
https://www.njsga.org/news/post/gol...fted-as-courses-continue-return-to-new-normal
https://www.njsga.org/news/post/gol...fted-as-courses-continue-return-to-new-normal
