Preseason KenPom Ratings

[shu09]

The Hall checks in at #83. Sounds about right to me.

The Big East according to the ratings:

1. Villanova (5th nationally)
2. Georgetown (27)
3. Butler (29)
4. Xavier (31)
5. Marquette (54)
6. Providence (62)
7. Seton Hall (83)
8. Creighton (86)
9. DePaul (113)
10. St. John's (150)

All in all, not much to argue with here at all. Pretty accurate IMO. The conference as a whole is rated 5th nationally (marginally behind the Pac-12, considerably ahead of the SEC).

 

[Seton75]

I can buy our placement in the BE but n I t the delta between PC Mq and us.

 

[Piratz]

Marquette seems way high despite their hype. We seem about right though.

 

[Halldan1]

The Hall checks in at #83. Sounds about right to me.

The Big East according to the ratings:

1. Villanova (5th nationally)
2. Georgetown (27)
3. Butler (29)
4. Xavier (31)
5. Marquette (54)
6. Providence (62)
7. Seton Hall (83)
8. Creighton (86)
9. DePaul (113)
10. St. John's (150)

Close to my prediction last week with the exception of my SHU prejudice...LOL


1. Villanova
Doesn't take a genius to make this pick. Loaded in the backcourt with a high quality big in the middle.

2. Georgetown
Young with excellent size and talent. Plus nice to have a potential All Big East player in the backcourt.

3. Butler
Kevin Willard's pick as most likely to dethrone Nova. Good wing players, upfront will tell the tale.

4. Xavier
Nice inside outside combo in Bluiett and Reynolds. Losing big man Stainbrook will hurt.

5. Seton Hall
A reach? Possibly. But there's no question about the physical talent on the roster. The question is about past performances and will they linger..

6. Marquette
Hell of a job by Wojo in a very short time. Two high quality bigs will help. How far they go will be dictated by the backcourt.

7. Providence
They have the best player in the league but what after that? Will only go as far as Dunn takes them.

8,. DePaul
There's talent on the team. Certainly not enough to be more than a middle of the pack team, but that would be a big improvement.

9. Creighton
Have to win more 50/50 games. That might be hard. Will lean on two transfers. Not always a good recipe for sucess.

10. St John's
Everyone's gone from last year. Starting from scratch.

 

[TheBluePirate]

The Big East according to the ratings:

1. Villanova (5th nationally)
2. Georgetown (27)
3. Butler (29)
4. Xavier (31)
5. Marquette (54)
6. Providence (62)
7. Seton Hall (83)
8. Creighton (86)
9. DePaul (113)
10. St. John's (150)
/QUOTE]

For context, let's see how the KenPom model adjusted last year's ending ratings versus these season openers:

(1) Villanova from 5 to 5 - sounds reasonable
(2) Georgetown from 24 to 27 - sounds reasonable
(3) Butler from 19 to 29 - loss of Barlow and Woods - a lot of respect for the program prevents a higher drop
(4) Xavier from 22 to 31 - loss of Stainbrook - a lot of respect for the program also
(5) Marquette from 111 to 54 - wow - that's a huge jump
(6) Providence from 30 to 62 - big drop - but what about the impact of Dunn
(7) Seton Hall from 105 to 83 -okay - that's a move up, not down - seems about right
(8) Creighton from 84 to 86 - a ton of respect for the program keeps it from moving down
(9) DePaul from 169 to 113 - another huge jump - wow
(10) St John's from 51 to 150 - huge drop - but expected

All in all, these ratings say that Marquette and DePaul are greatly improved (watch out!) and that Butler and Xavier are rock solid (watch out).

Until we actually finish in the top half of the league, I see no reason to expect anyone to predict it for us using any known model (other than throwing darts at a dartboard).

 

[Save Continental]

The Hall checks in at #83. Sounds about right to me.

The Big East according to the ratings:

1. Villanova (5th nationally)
2. Georgetown (27)
3. Butler (29)
4. Xavier (31)
5. Marquette (54)
6. Providence (62)
7. Seton Hall (83)
8. Creighton (86)
9. DePaul (113)
10. St. John's (150)

All in all, not much to argue with here at all. Pretty accurate IMO. The conference as a whole is rated 5th nationally (marginally behind the Pac-12, considerably ahead of the SEC).

How does Pomeroy formulate his preseason rankings with no data?

 

[TheBluePirate]

I think he takes the previous season's rating, adjusts for the contributions of players leaving, there is some secret sauce for advancing the stats of remaining players (vs freshmen) and then a massive regression calculation of some kind. I do not believe he tweaks individual teams based on "punditry factor".

Looks like my post above was entirely encapsulated in the quote above it - I suppose I should go and rescue my own posting...

 

[TheBluePirate]

Here is what I posted.

For context, let's see how the KenPom model adjusted last year's ending ratings versus these season openers:

(1) Villanova from 5 to 5 - sounds reasonable
(2) Georgetown from 24 to 27 - sounds reasonable
(3) Butler from 19 to 29 - loss of Barlow and Woods - a lot of respect for the program prevents a higher drop
(4) Xavier from 22 to 31 - loss of Stainbrook - a lot of respect for the program also
(5) Marquette from 111 to 54 - wow - that's a huge jump
(6) Providence from 30 to 62 - big drop - but what about the impact of Dunn
(7) Seton Hall from 105 to 83 -okay - that's a move up, not down - seems about right
(8) Creighton from 84 to 86 - a ton of respect for the program keeps it from moving down
(9) DePaul from 169 to 113 - another huge jump - wow
(10) St John's from 51 to 150 - huge drop - but expected

All in all, these ratings say that Marquette and DePaul are greatly improved (watch out!) and that Butler and Xavier are rock solid (watch out).

Until we actually finish in the top half of the league, I see no reason to expect anyone to predict it for us using any known model (other than throwing darts at a dartboard).

 

[TheBluePirate]

What I mean by "respect" is not an intervention by KenPom in his algorithm, I mean that the middle of the roster (Junior and Sophomore) were already substantially contributing so that they are calculated as maintaining the level of the program despite key seniors leaving. However, I cannot explain Marquette's huge rise - there must be something about their incoming Freshman that lubricates the KenPom formula...

 

[Save Continental]

yeah, the Marquette one I couldn't figure. There has to be some subjective input, I guess.

As I type this, Pomeroy explains it. There is some factor for highly ranked incoming frosh.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/preseason_ratings_2015

 

[knowknow456]

BP - thanks for doing the leg work on Ken Pom. Interesting stuff. Like most everyone, I will be interested to see if Marquette can convert its preseason ranking into wins and losses

 

[hallgrad80]

BP
Great job , thanks. The huge jump for DePaul was the biggest shocker for me but since I have Marquette as my surprise team in The BE this year I expected them to climb up in the ratings but not that high . I had them pegged as somewhere in the low 70's

 

[TheBluePirate]

456, you're welcome. Like Save, I was thinking, hmmmm. Yes - there is a Freshman factor. We would have received that kind of bump last year from our incoming Five - but we would have gotten a concomitant subtraction for not having a strong "mid-section". I think that the rating above show the mathematical tilt towards the expected contributions from the Sophs and Juniors from the previous year now being Juniors and Seniors. It says - Nova stays at number 5 because Jay has managed an even mill of quality players. It says that Marquette jumps because (a) a whopping incoming class but do not forget (b) they have a solid mid-section. That will also apply to DePaul.

The upper half teams bring it with toughness and a conveyor belt.

 

[SPK145]

I loqve Kenpom but how id Maryland number 24? They are a top 5 team this year, IMHO.

 

[Hoya1987]

I loqve Kenpom but how id Maryland number 24? They are a top 5 team this year, IMHO.

1) Kenpom's preseason formula doesn't take account of transfers. 2 of Maryland's better players are transfers.
2) Maryland was only rated 32nd last year in kenpom's model.
3) Maryland did lose big pieces in Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, and Richaud Pack and as I noted above it doesn't take into account transfers only top 100 freshmen.