PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS ?
- Thread starter SnakeTom
- Start date
OK here is my prediction and I will stick with what I posted earlier. Mitt Romney will be elected President in a very close race. My reasoning is that while 47% of the public is solidly for OB & 47% solidly for Romney the other 6% are still in play without a strong conviction about either candidate. I look at this as similar to the Carter/Reagan election. Enough people will go to the polls having the perception that OB has not done a good enough job and it's time to give some one else a chance. Anyway that's how I see it in my very imperfect crystal ball.
Tom K
Tom K
I remember our conversations a while back about the unemployment rate and 8% being the magic number for a landslide win.
I didn't realize at the time that Obama forgot how to debate, or that jobs report would have ended it. Not that it was a great report, but getting below 8% was big for Obama.
It'll be back around 10% by February. I still expect Obama to win, have since the beginning. I suspect he finds his groove tonight, and goes on the attack.
How in the world does Bob Menendez, a complete lowlife, have an 18 point lead on Kyrillos? The real problem in government is continuing to pull the lever for these career politicians, who don't care ANYTHING about their constiuents, or state, for that matter? Frequent turnover in both houses would be a good thing, regardless of party affiliation.
I met Frank Lautenberg, another disgrace, at the Hall on the Hill event in August. He even said that he went to a couple of years of Seton Hall, before finishing elsewhere. I hope he was lying, as usual, but if he wasn't, a little part of me died that day.
That number is assuming Romney can win Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia. If he wins all three of those states and maintains his lead in North Carolina and Florida, it will come down to Ohio.
I think Obama will win a very close election overall with a few surprise states going towards Romney.
On the Lautenberg comment - a few months ago the poor old guy was literally lost in Newark airport. I had to show him to his terminal and gate. He was mumbling and lost and when I realized who it was I could not believe it. When I listened to his last debate before he was elected he could not finish a sentence or answer a question. Clearly this guy is WAY over the hill but the idiots in NJ keep electing him. Sad really...
On the Lautenberg comment - a few months ago the poor old guy was literally lost in Newark airport. I had to show him to his terminal and gate. He was mumbling and lost and when I realized who it was I could not believe it. When I listened to his last debate before he was elected he could not finish a sentence or answer a question. Clearly this guy is WAY over the hill but the idiots in NJ keep electing him. Sad really...
I'd be shocked if Obama won Virginia. I served in the Navy, Contracted for the Defense Intelligence Agency, DEA, DOJ, and DoD. With Lockheed, Boeing, Grumman, Booz, BAE, GD, SAIC etc.. layoffs looming no way Obama wins Virginia. There are a lot of people ticked off with this administration. Throwing the Intelligence community under the bus was not a smart move either. I'd love to know who the genius in the Obama administration was who came up with the you tube video crap. IMO it was Axelrod or Donilon. I guess no one in this administration learned the lesson from Watergate, it's the coverup that burns you, and if you honestly believe the White House did not know any of this as Biden claimed and the buck stops with Hillary you are naive. As Snake said the independents will side with Romney because nothing was produced. DC right now isn't even at a 1/10 of the excitement when Obama ran in 2008. I'm surprised no one picked up on Biden's comment about the M1's. Not bright to say you want to eliminate M1's, when they are produced in OHIO and subcontracted out in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Obama campaign painted Romney out as a monster, well when the public got to see Romney against President Obama they realized he wasn't as horrific as portrayed. The unemployment numbers are bogus as well as the people who gave up aren't included and Donnie is right those number after seasonal employment will go back to 10% if not higher. There's so much more I can add but I'd be glad to converse more .
Heard there was a large turnout in North Carolina today.
I didn't really have them in play for Obama this year, but if turnout is high I could see him getting NC again.
The number of registered Hispanic voters has doubled since 2008 in NC as well.
As of today, I think Florida could still go either way but I agree on Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Not making a prediction because like flipping a coin, it seems like a toss up. Will make some observations regarding voting blocks that do not favor Obama though.
Blacks. Obama got 96% last time and has nowhere to go but down. He has alianated many church going blacks with his gay marriage stance. So give him 88% this time.
Jews. Obama got 78% last time, but his weak support of Israel has angered some large doners. He has also had issues with Netanyahu.Support will go down to low 60's I think.
Youth. Obamas most enthusiastic belivers 4 years ago .Many have graduated and are certainly dissillousioned with a poor job market.Also turnout will be lower among youthfull voters. Not good news.
Catholics. Obama won a majority in 08, but that's not happening this time. Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception and the church initiated a law suit against him. Majority lost.
Small business owners. Obama supports unions over the private sector. Waging war on capitalism does not speak well .
Millitary Vets. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is currently up 24.
Just a hunch, but I dont think that one person who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch their vote. I have spoken to many who voted Obama last time that have crossed the line. All, that said, It will still be close.
This post was edited on 10/21 8:10 PM by bluerock
Blacks. Obama got 96% last time and has nowhere to go but down. He has alianated many church going blacks with his gay marriage stance. So give him 88% this time.
Jews. Obama got 78% last time, but his weak support of Israel has angered some large doners. He has also had issues with Netanyahu.Support will go down to low 60's I think.
Youth. Obamas most enthusiastic belivers 4 years ago .Many have graduated and are certainly dissillousioned with a poor job market.Also turnout will be lower among youthfull voters. Not good news.
Catholics. Obama won a majority in 08, but that's not happening this time. Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception and the church initiated a law suit against him. Majority lost.
Small business owners. Obama supports unions over the private sector. Waging war on capitalism does not speak well .
Millitary Vets. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is currently up 24.
Just a hunch, but I dont think that one person who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch their vote. I have spoken to many who voted Obama last time that have crossed the line. All, that said, It will still be close.
This post was edited on 10/21 8:10 PM by bluerock
Excellent post Bluerock. Spoke to a local politician last night who is tuned in and had similar sentiments. I also do a lot of work with recent college grads in different parts of the country and they are signing a different tune this election compared to last one where they were unitedly for Pres O. Should be interesting.
bluerock: I agree with your reasoning but not your conclusions. First of all if everyything you said happens to the same extent that you indicate than Romney wins easily. But I don't buy that the religious issues (gay marriage, contraception etc) will be much of a factor as anyone concerned with these issues was not voting for Obama anyway. As to the Jewish vote while the normal Dem plurality might go down slightly most states where there is a large Jewish population are blue states anyway (NY, NJ, Cal, Illinois). And black voters will still give Obama over 90% of their vote. The bigger question is will they come to the polls in the same numbers as last time.
This race is going right down to the wire. Tomorrow's debate could well be a deciding factor. I have predicted a Romney win (though I probably will not vote for him) but this could well be a situation where Romney wins the popular vote & loses the election.
Tom K
This race is going right down to the wire. Tomorrow's debate could well be a deciding factor. I have predicted a Romney win (though I probably will not vote for him) but this could well be a situation where Romney wins the popular vote & loses the election.
Tom K
Tend to agree with much of what Tom is saying (scary thought...lol).
Reasoning all makes sense, but don't think it moves the needle nearly as much as bluerock thinks. THE issue in my mind is voter turnout. As much as the debates have been good theatre, and have benefited Romney more, we clearly don't have the same national interest as 2008. Even though Mitt has made a couple of errors (i.e. Binders!), the one thing the debates have done is that it's allowed him to be seen in a comparative situation and a legitimate candidate vs. Obama rather than the scripted media or youtube snipets that have painted him as a rich white guy that's completely out of touch.
Tom, I also agree that this last debate might be a deciding factor although since it's on foreign policy, this will be one where most of America is not typically as interested (as the economy). While you would think the recent reports that surfaced where Ambassador Stevens was continually asking for more security in the days leading up to his murder, would be a burning issue (and it probably will be tonight), I don't think that's going to make much of a difference by most independant voters when they step in the booth.
This debate is an opportunity for Romney to "close" focusing on his leadership and vision. If Obama (or the moderator..lol) gets him tripped up like last week, that will hurt any chance he has.
I don't see Obama losing 8 percentage points with black voters. Some polls have shown Romney getting only the margin of error. Turnout is the much bigger measure for Obama with Blacks.
I agree on Jewish voters. I don't see Obama winning them by the same margin.
Youths, again this will be a turnout issue. I don't think there will be a large % swing to Romney but if younger voters don't vote at a similar rate to 2008, that will hurt Obama.
No polls have suggested Obama losing the Catholic vote as you are suggesting. I don't think the "attack on the church" will swing anyone who would have voted originally for Obama.
Two key demographics you missed are
1. Latino's. Expect about a 20% increase in the number of Latino voters from 2008. This might make a difference in a few states with a heavy lean towards Obama.
2. Women. If you anticipate Obama losing Catholics over abortion, Obama will easily make up for any loss there with women voters who do not agree with Romney on abortion.
As Snake and Hall85 have suggested. This election will be decided by turnout. Enthusiasm is down and people might stay home.
Tom, Our conclusions are exactly the same. I said it was a toss up and you said it is coming down to the wire. I certainly realize that some of the voting block gains are inconsequential due to where hey occur.The key, like you said is turn out. Urban & youth turnouts are hard to predict . Tonights debate is critical also, to both. The issue of Lybia is a vunerable area for th Obama administration. However it all depends if Romney can take advantage. Somehow, it seems like I'll be watching a sporting event. LOL
This post was edited on 10/22 8:51 AM by bluerock
This post was edited on 10/22 8:51 AM by bluerock
Agree that turnout is a big issue. The debate tonight could be big depending on who is still tuned in. I always think a debate on foreign policy is an advantage to the sitting President who gets briefed on this stuff every day. So Romney has his work cut out for him. He will have to walk a fine line on Libya even though little by little more damaging information is coming out (over 40 security incidents and two bombings reported before the attack and that is why they were so anxious on the ground - and being protected primarily by Libyans who led the perps right to the Ambassador).
On the Jewish vote many of my Jewish friends are voting for Romney. I don't think the youth vote will be nearly as strong for Obama this go round either. Should be interesting and I think very tight and as always it will come down to the swing states which are very much up in the air right now. Could be that more Latinos are voting this election in some of those swing states which could decide it.
On the Jewish vote many of my Jewish friends are voting for Romney. I don't think the youth vote will be nearly as strong for Obama this go round either. Should be interesting and I think very tight and as always it will come down to the swing states which are very much up in the air right now. Could be that more Latinos are voting this election in some of those swing states which could decide it.
While the Latino population has grown signficantly, I'm not convinced that they will make as big a difference as everyone is predicting. Disproportionate amount of illegal aliens in that growth number...I haven't checked stats, but have registered Latino voters increased that dramatically?
Up over 20% nationally although the majority is probably not in swing states. but the overall makeup of the electorate (registered voters) in some key states is interesting.
Hispanics now represent 16.7% of the electorate in Florida. Up from 15.7 in 2008.
Colorado is 12.1% up from 9.2%
Iowa is 2.4% up from 1.3%
North Carolina is 2.9% up from 1.7%
Virginia is 2.3% up from 1.9%
Nevada is 13.7% up from 11.4%
Ohio is up 1.5% from 1.4%
Latino voters can easily tip a few states towards Obama. Not saying they will, but in states where it is really close I think that demographic shift could have a decent impact on this election.
Couple weeks to go. I'm not voting for Obama, but I'm betting he will win. After absorbing the three debates, I'm even less hopeful that either one of these people will pull us out of this slow, socioeconomic nosedive. Obama is clearly more likeable, polished, and probably smarter than Romney. That said, his policies, and those of the more liberal left, leave a lot to be desired. The ACA, from someone in the industry, is bound for disaster systemwide. The economy is in the tank, and a blip in the employment numbers doesn't a trend make. In fact, most money people see it getting much worse very soon.
As a country, we are too polarized. DC politics are about money and power, not service or the greater good. We need to end lobbying, period; Congress should be a part time position, not a plum opportunity to line your pockets. Pharmaceutical reps can't give out pens to physicians any longer, but multi-million dollar gifts and contributions are allowed for those making our laws?
This election is all about the "middle class," but not one of any of these elected representatives knows what that is, nor will their families, for generations.
As a country, we are too polarized. DC politics are about money and power, not service or the greater good. We need to end lobbying, period; Congress should be a part time position, not a plum opportunity to line your pockets. Pharmaceutical reps can't give out pens to physicians any longer, but multi-million dollar gifts and contributions are allowed for those making our laws?
This election is all about the "middle class," but not one of any of these elected representatives knows what that is, nor will their families, for generations.
This is true and we have become even more polarized during the Obama presidency.
Romney was able to work with Dems & Reps in Massachussetts and plans to reach across the aisle when he is president. Romney speaks of this a lot. Not once have I heard Obama speak about how he intends to open up lines of commuication with the Republicans.
With Obama .. it will be more of the same stagnation. trying to push legislation through the back door, giving powers to unelected agencies like EPA by Presidential mandate and Executive orders and statements like " we'll find out what's in the bill when it's passed" (Pelosi & the Helath Care bill) That's the only way he knows how to govern.
We need someone who can negotiate. That's Romney.
Someone needs to call him to task for Libya, also. He and members of his administartion misled the country for two weeks. Unfortunalety all the iunvestigations won't be done before the election. Regardless how the facts play out, no one can deny that false statements were made to the US public. You can only guess why.
Edited to add my prediction R -52% O-48% overall vote and all key states but Michigan going to Romney.
This post was edited on 10/25 1:34 PM by JMM13
There is a site to look at North Carolina early voting which present some interesting data.
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
210,000 more votes cast than at this point in 2008.
Blacks and "other" now represent 30.74 of the vote compared to 29.69 at this point in 2008.
North Carolina may be in play against this year... I really didn't think it would be.
So far it doesn't look like low turnout will be an issue. Early voting is up.
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
210,000 more votes cast than at this point in 2008.
Blacks and "other" now represent 30.74 of the vote compared to 29.69 at this point in 2008.
North Carolina may be in play against this year... I really didn't think it would be.
So far it doesn't look like low turnout will be an issue. Early voting is up.
OK, so while I have power, I'll ask the question. Does Hurricane Sandy, assuming 1-2 million in the area are without power for an extended period of time 5-6 days have any impact on the election?
I would say no, except that in one battleground state (Pennsylvania), it might effect heavy turnout in Eastern PA which is heavier democrat. It also may work the opposite in Virginia since rural republican areas might be more effected by loss of power.
I would say no, except that in one battleground state (Pennsylvania), it might effect heavy turnout in Eastern PA which is heavier democrat. It also may work the opposite in Virginia since rural republican areas might be more effected by loss of power.
Not sure. I think this is going to be an interesting issue depending on how hard hit the east coast is. If things are really bad do they postpone the election for a week? Not sure that has every happened. Hopefully not too much loss of life and power is restored in a week and there is no effect on the election.
If PA had early voting, I could see this being a problem in regards to turnout but they should be good to go by next Tuesday.
I think either candidate politicizing this could turn a lot of people off. There are a few articles today about how Romney and Ryan want to get rid of FEMA, hopefully Obama doesn't use this as a way to differentiate himself.
I think either candidate politicizing this could turn a lot of people off. There are a few articles today about how Romney and Ryan want to get rid of FEMA, hopefully Obama doesn't use this as a way to differentiate himself.
Not sure if any of you caught Christie on Fox this morning, but I loved the way he handled the political talk.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/10/30/christie-praises-obama-doesnt-give-a-damn-about-romney-photo-op/
Romney is in a tough spot right now. He needs to campaign in the home stretch, but he also needs to be sensitive to the disaster. The best thing that he can do is show up to the events and talk for a few minutes about the disaster and ask people for donations and prayers. If he goes political, it will hurt him.
That is not Obama's place right now. He would look small and misguided if he goes after Romney himself.
It is a legitimate issue. Romney said at a primary debate that he would like to remove the federal role from pretty much every program that should be on the state level, on a question specifically about disaster relief and said ideally it would be handled by the private sector.
He is taking some hits on this in the media right now, and that is where it should stay.
Romney is going to back track on this issue... but anytime you are defending your comments, you are losing.
